948
FXUS64 KEPZ 291155
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
555 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Dry and hot weather will continue for the rest of this week and
into much of next week as dry west to southwest flow aloft
persists. Occasional brief moisture incursions will occur over
Otero and Hudspeth Counties but likely too brief for any chance of
rain. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with the
lowlands flirting with triple digits each day into mid-week of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Current look at the weather scene shows upper ridge from the Big
Bend northward along east slopes of the front range. At the
surface the dry-line reinforced by storm outflow from the Texas
Panhandle storms continues to move toward our CWA. IR satellite
and surface obs show the leading edge of the dry-line now into the
Tularosa Basin down through northeast Hudspeth County and
southward across far eastern Hudspeth. HRRR shows this boundary
infiltrating into the Rio Grande Valley by around 12Z and perhaps
as far as the Cont Divide by around noon before the west winds
kick in and erode the moisture all the way back to the far eastern
CWA by late this afternoon. Did put some low token POPs in for the
eastern CWA this afternoon but thats about it. This should bring a
brief relief to the elevated fire conditions in the Sacs today.

Not much change for the rest of the week into the first half of
next week as dry west flow aloft continues. Breezy afternoons each
day through the forecast period, with temperatures remaining well
above normal. Upper trough over the Pac NW will sweep across the
northern Rockies today and Thursday with the tail end dragging
across New Mexico. This will produce a slightly lower temperature
of the atmosphere, so highs today through Friday a few degrees
lower. That said, the sub-tropical high over Mexico will very
slowly build northward Saturday into next week. Increasing heights
and h85 temps show lowlands likely back into the triple digits
from Saturday through Tuesday. 90th percentile NBM highs show
triple digits for the large majority of the lowlands, with highs
in the RG Valley from El Paso down of 103-106 deg.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Generally VFR conditions through the period with SCT-BKN250. Over
the Sac Mtns...BKN-OVC030 isolated drizzle/light rain. Clouds
mostly disspated by around 22Z. Surface wind...Rio Grande Valley
east...east/southeast 7-12 knots becoming southwest 12-15G25 knots
after 20Z. West Rio Grande Valley...southwest winds AOB 8 knots
becoming west/southwest 12-15G25 knots after 18Z. Winds all areas
diminishing to west/northwest AOB 8 knots after 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Overall, not a lot of change in fire weather, with conditions
remaining mostly elevated to near-critical through Sunday. The Sac
Mtn zone will see some temporary relief from the low humidity this
morning and again Friday and Saturday as the dry-line briefly
moves in each of these days. With the exception of the Sac zone,
overnight humidity recovery will continue to be poor. Breezy west
winds continuing each day and despite these brief incursions of
moisture, little to no chance of rain is expected.

Min RHs: Lowlands around 5% west of RG Valley today and 12% east
of the Valley; then 4-8% through Sunday. Mountains around 6% Gila
and 15% Sacs today; then 6-12% through Sunday. Vent rates very
good to excellent through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  67  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            93  61  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               97  59  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               94  55  93  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               74  43  73  43 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    94  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              85  50  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   95  54  95  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                93  55  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       96  63  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                97  56  97  54 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             99  59  98  57 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               89  59  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   98  62  97  60 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             96  58  95  57 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           95  59  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            94  49  94  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    96  51  96  52 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 95  61  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                93  53  93  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  85  48  85  46 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                84  46  83  46 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 82  46  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  87  50  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                92  55  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                93  49  93  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             86  47  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   90  50  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    93  40  93  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               88  37  88  37 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  89  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   93  53  93  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  93  56  93  55 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           93  55  93  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               87  54  87  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner