248
FXPQ50 PGUM 092106
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
706 AM ChST Mon Jun 10 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Gentle trades prevail in the region. Satellite imagery indicates a
broad surface trough well east of the Marianas approaching eastern
Saipan waters. Ritidian buoy and recent altimetry passes indicate
seas are 3 to 5 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Showers are expected to increase slowly starting tonight, with
thunderstorms possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. Showers will
remain patchy at times through Thursday, before the chance of
thunderstorms increases significantly in the towards the end of the
week due to a Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell moving
in overhead, potentially magnifying thunderstorm development over the
Marianas. By next week, much more pleasant weather is expected to
return.

&&

.Marine...
Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet are expected to drop a foot by the
middle of the week, before increasing once again towards next weekend
as trade swell and wind waves strengthen. A moderate risk of rip
currents is expected along east facing reefs for the next few days,
and a low risk is expected along all other reefs for the rest of the
week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
The main weather feature affecting Eastern Micronesia is a trade-wind
trough that is currently just west of 180. As this trough moves
westward, it will begin to affect the islands. Majuro will receive
scattered showers by Tuesday and a slight chance of thunderstorms by
Wednesday, which will continue through Friday. With Kosrae being
farther west, the scattered showers will likely wait until Tuesday
night, otherwise the weather will be similar. Pohnpei, being farthest
west, will wait until Wednesday for the chance of showers to
increase.

Pohnpei and Kosrae will not have winds above 15 knots. They will also
not have seas above 6 feet. This means that benign marine conditions
will continue, so just watch for lightning, and take shelter if any
is nearby.

Majuro will also have seas 6 feet or less, and most of the time will
have winds 15 knots or less. However, tonight, winds could edge
toward 20 knots. This is still below advisory, but only just. That
means it is no longer benign. so caution is advised in the Marshalls
tonight.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
There are two main weather features affecting Western Micronesia. The
first is a weak circulation west of Koror. The other is a trade-wind
trough just west of Chuuk. Chuuk is expected to have scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms through tonight. Showers will thin
a little Tuesday, while isolated thunderstorms could linger. Tuesday
night and Wednesday will allow Chuuk to dry out a little, then
Thursday and Friday the Eastern Micronesia trough could impinge on
Chuuk sufficiently to bring some weather in.

Yap and Koror Palau will not be affected by the Eastern Micronesia
trough. They will be fairly dry through tonight for Yap and Tuesday
for Koror. Afterward, the approaching trough from near Chuuk could
affect Yap and Palau through Friday.

Chuuk will have winds at or below 15 knots, and seas at or below 5
feet. This counts as benign marine conditions, so just watch for
lightning and take shelter when appropriate.

Koror and Yap will have winds at or below 10 knots, and seas at or
below 4 feet. This is definitely benign, so again, just watch for
lighting once the showers get started, and take shelter if necessary.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Montvila
Micronesia: Stanko