098
FXUS64 KLIX 061726
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms has developed across southeast
Louisiana and portions of the MS Gulf Coast ahead of an H5 impulse
moving across the region this morning. Behind the line, there
could be an isolated shower or storm this afternoon, but with most
of the upper support transitioning out of the region, continued to
advertise lower-end POPs respectively. Cloudiness this morning
will keep temps down just a bit, but some breaks in the cloudiness
this afternoon during peak heating will allow temps to warm into
the upper 80s and even perhaps lower 90s, especially across the
western tier. Overall, only superficial changes to the ongoing
forecast with focus on the ongoing convection. (Frye)

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The front that has been talked about is arriving this morning. This
is more of a trough at the sfc than a front, but there is some
forcing just above the sfc with this and it should be capable of
developing and gathering most of its sh/ts along its axis as the
morning progresses. This boundary will press into the northern gulf
late today before stalling. This should deliver some light northerly
winds today bringing in some drier PW values. Model solutions are
almost a 180 from yesterday. Yesterdays 00z run had higher PW to the
south and west of this boundary with little to no precip in these
higher PW areas. This morning, the higher PW values are to the SE of
this boundary with lower PW values to the west and north and the
only thing that has remained is the precip field which is little to
none. Now that the PW field makes sense with the moisture depth, it
is easier to allow for much lower precip numbers and so that is what
this package will advertise. One more day of sh/ts around then some
drying out starting Fri. A few storms could be strong today, but
this may be more over the marine areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A stronger dry air surge moves in for Sat keeping precip numbers
to the some of the lowest numbers when related to the last several
weeks. A new cold front will enter the picture by Monday and move
rapidly toward the gulf coast stalling along the coast or
somewhere near it. This will bring another bout of sh/ts with it
either late Mon or Tue. At some point the easterlies will win out
as we press deeper into the summer and our rain chances will come
more from easterly waves, deep surges of tropical moisture, strong
coastal sea breezes or the other things.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Convective line has passed to the east of all forecast terminals,
and there will be no need to carry mention of thunder in any
terminal. Still mid and high overcast for terminals near and east
of Interstate 55, while to the west of there, scattered to broken
cumulus has developed with heating. The high overcast will shift
to the east of all terminals over the next 3-6 hours. The cumulus
will dissipate with loss of surface heating toward sunset, leaving
most or all terminals with no significant impacts overnight. Rain
amounts haven`t been particularly impactful over the last 48
hours, so don`t expect any significant development of fog toward
sunrise. Daylight hours on Friday should see no significant
aviation impacts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Southwesterly winds of 10-15kt will become light northerly tonight
into Fri. This will become a more variable wind Sat with a return
flow Sun ahead of the next front that should stall along the coast
or just offshore Mon possibly bringing northerly winds to the area
once again. All of these winds will be light outside of any storms
that are able to develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  69  91  65 /  20   0  10   0
BTR  92  73  96  71 /  20  10  10   0
ASD  91  72  95  70 /  80  10  10   0
MSY  90  77  94  76 /  80  10  10   0
GPT  88  73  94  71 /  80  10  10   0
PQL  89  71  95  68 /  90  20  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TE