700
FXUS63 KMQT 071924
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
324 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showery weather and much cooler through the weekend under the influence
  of low pressure, then warming and drying early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

This afternoon features a weak midlevel ridge building over the
Upper Great Lakes while a weakening trough continues to exit
eastward over eastern Ontario. Increasing subsidence is resulting in
a drier midlevel airmass overhead, with clearing skies across most
of the western half of the UP. That said, plenty of lower level
cloud cover lingers across the eastern UP so far, and sporadic weak
radar returns hint at a potential for a few sprinkles through the
afternoon hours. Otherwise, with a tighter pressure gradient still
present across the UP, wind gusts to around 20-30mph are still
common. Where skies have been able to clear out, temperatures are
climbing well into the 50s and lower 60s. In the eastern UP, where
skies remain cloudy, temperatures may only peak in the mid 50s.

Any lingering cloud cover in the eastern UP should clear out this
evening, but with another shortwave ejecting out of the Northern
Plains tonight, expect clouds to fill back in from west to east the
second half of the night. We may see some showers moving into the
western UP by sunrise. Winds turn light tonight while temperatures
fall back into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Upper air pattern consists of an elongated trough and several closed
lows along most of the Canadian/U.S. border into New England 12z
Sat. Upper level troughing slowly moves south through upper Great
Lakes Sat and Sat night. Upper high pressure ridging then moves into
the area on Mon. Next chance for rain moves into the area on Sat
into Sat evening and then another chance for pcpn Sun before it
dries out Sun night. Pcpn chances do not look that great and will be
mostly hit and miss.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge in the
western U.S. and across the upper Great Lakes with a trough in the
northern plains 12z Tue. This trough moves through the upper Great
Lakes 12z Wed with more upper level troughing near the area 12z Thu
through 12z Fri. Temperatures go from near normal on Tue to above
normal Wed through Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Skies have been able to clear out at IWD for today, but patchy low
cloud cover has moved over CMX and SAW and may linger at least
through mid afternoon. Then, all TAF sites are expected to rise to
VFR levels for the rest of the TAF period as drier air filters into
the area with mid-level ridging. Meanwhile, west-northwest surface
winds will be breezy with gusts up to 24 kts through this afternoon,
but gusts fall off into the evening. A few showers may begin to
work into IWD and CMX Saturday morning, but restrictions are not
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Winds stay below 20 knots through Sunday morning before increasing to
20 to 25 knots Sun afternoon. The wind then stays again below 20
knots Sunday night through the end of the forecast period as no
strong pressure systems are near the area.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     MIZ006.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...07