037
FXUS65 KMSO 090835
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
235 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.DISCUSSION...A short wave moving into the region from the
southwest this morning will cause some thunderstorms early this
afternoon in central Idaho and southwest Montana. The east winds
currently moving into the region from across the Continental
Divide are bringing cooler, more stable air. That will really curb
the instability causing mainly showers in the northern Bitterroot
valley with occasional lightning strikes. The southern Bitterroot
and Lemhi County, Idaho will see stronger storms with the
potential for some 40-50 mph wind gusts. The southern portions of
Lemhi County have up to a 15 percent chance of wind gusts over 60
mph.

Then another hot, dry ridge builds in by Tuesday causing warmer
temperatures, but it doesn`t last long. By Wednesday, another wave
breaks the ridge down and results in zonal flow. This causes near
average temperatures with breezy afternoons the rest of the week.
The winds will also have good support from the jet stream being
directly over the region for the end of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...A short wave entering the region today will cause
increasing cloud cover and some showers and thunderstorms today.
Farther north terminals like KGPI won`t be affected much by the
convection due to the recent east winds bringing a more stable air
mass. Terminal KMSO will likely see more showers than
thunderstorms for the same reason, but it`s basically on the north
edge of the transition zone from thunderstorms to showers.
Terminals KHRF, KSMN, and KBTM will thunderstorms today. Due to
the timing of the wave, KSMN could see thunderstorms as early as
09/18Z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory until 5 AM MDT early this morning for
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...West Glacier Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$