526
FXUS62 KTAE 080450
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1250 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Forecast is on track for this evening. No major changes were
required.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A slow moving front will continue to move southeast across the
region through tonight. Mostly clear skies are expected tomorrow,
some fair weather Cu could be possible. Only noticeable change
tomorrow, post-frontal passage, will be a relative drop in dew
points, with areas in SE AL and SW GA dipping into mid to upper 50s
dews, and inland FL areas dipping into the low 60s dews.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Upper ridging builds back into the area from our
west with hot temperatures continuing. Some of the hottest
temperatures of the year are possible this Sunday with areawide
highs in the 90s. The hottest temperatures are expected in the FL
Big Bend and portions of SW GA where temperatures will likely break
into the upper 90s. Thankfully, prolonged west-northwest flow will
have prevented any meaningful moisture return by this point keeping
heat indices lower than what they could have been. Regardless, heat
indices are forecast to break into the 100s across the area. With
ridging aloft, rain chances will remain quite low this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A transition toward a wetter period throughout the long
term appears likely with a broad upper level trough sliding through
the area at the start of the week followed by a surge of tropical
moisture.

On Monday, as the upper trough slides east, an associated frontal
boundary will gradually slide south setting up over the area. The
limiting factor regarding storm development will be quality deep-
layer moisture with PWAT`s mostly ranging from 1.3-1.6" across the
majority of the area with some higher values across our northernmost
AL and GA counties, thus opted to keep PoP`s in the 30s areawide.

From Tuesday onward, transitioning to a southerly flow regime
appears likely which will serve to advect deep moisture across the
area as a tropical airmass advects north through the Gulf. Much of
this is highly dependent on how progressive the upper level pattern
is and if upper troughing shunts the moisture off to our east.
Guidance has appeared to slow down the upper level pattern, though
this is still subject to change given how far out this forecast is.
Regardless, notably wet conditions appear likely as the middle of
the week approaches despite some uncertainty.

High temperatures will start off in the mid to upper 90s on Monday,
seeing a gradual decline to the upper 80s to low 90s as the mid week
approaches. Low temperatures are expected to remain in the 70s each
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period,
with mostly clear skies and light northwesterly to northerly winds
at around 5-10 mph or less.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Favorable boating conditions are expected to continue
through this weekend with wave heights around 1 to 2 feet and light
winds. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase on Monday as a
frontal boundary slides south and will remain elevated throughout
the week with the arrival of tropical moisture. Beginning Wednesday,
wave heights will see an increase with cautionary conditions
possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

High dispersions will impact South Georgia and North Florida this
weekend. MinRH`s look to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s for
inland areas away from the coast. Being post-frontal rain chances
will be near 0% with the exception being a rogue shower along the
sea breeze.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Dry weather is expected to continue through this weekend with
no immediate hydro concerns. Beginning Monday, a wet pattern will
begin as a frontal boundary slides south followed by tropical
moisture arriving over the Gulf. It remains quite uncertain how much
rainfall will occur with this event at this time and is highly
dependent on how long the moisture will linger over the region.
Currently, a few rivers along the Suwannee remain in action stage
and are expected to continue lowering over the next few days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   96  71  97  74 /   0   0  10   0
Panama City   91  74  90  77 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        91  68  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        93  68  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      94  69  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    95  72  95  73 /  20   0  10   0
Apalachicola  89  75  90  77 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Worster