Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
913 FXUS65 KABQ 051122 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 522 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 519 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - An end to the growing season is expected for portions of the Upper Rio Grande Valley this morning, as low temperatures dip below freezing, especially near the Colorado border. - A wetter period expected early to mid next week with areas near and east of the central mountain chain favored Monday before spreading to most areas across northern and central New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1214 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 The main H5 low has now opened and is racing northward toward Canada, currently over eastern WY with stronger winds aloft just off the surface still over eastern NM this early hour. A troughing pattern holds onto the northern Rockies with weakening southwesterly flow still draped further south across NM. This will yield modest southerly to southwesterly breezes this afternoon over the area, considerably less than Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, considerably drier air has pushed into western and central NM behind yesterday`s frontal boundary. Dewpoints have fallen into the 10s and 20s, and this combined with lighter winds tonight keeps the Freeze Warning in play for the Upper Rio Grande Valley heading into Sunday morning. Thereafter, temperatures will warm to pleasant levels for much of northern and central NM this afternoon. Highs will range from the 50s/60s in the northern mountains to near 70F in the mid-elevations across western and central NM, with 80F to 85F for many lower elevation areas. Roswell will be the hot spot flirting with 90F. Surface high pressure in the wake of the upper level trough exiting into Canada will push southward along the high plains and Front Range of the Rockies into northeastern NM early Monday morning. Numerical model guidance continues to advertise this frontal boundary meeting up with southerly return flow from the Gulf near east-central NM. Surface convergence underlying modest southwest flow aloft will favor showers and thunderstorms developing along the convergent surface boundary Monday afternoon. This will help a secondary push of the blended frontal boundary and lower level moisture to the west into the Rio Grande Valley toward the Continental Divide by Tuesday heading into the long term period. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1214 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 By Tuesday, the center of the surface high will favor NE/KS pushing low level moisture up to the east slopes of the central mountain chain and also producing a modest east canyon wind into Santa Fe and Albuquerque. Abundant low-level clouds and a modest capping inversion will be favored across the eastern plains of NM. Any robust convection developing Tuesday afternoon will favor areas along the western fringe of the low level cooler and more moist airmass behind the cold front. Guidance continues to show that being somewhere b/w the Continental Divide and the central mountain chain, mainly within the Rio Grande Valley. Any scattered shower and thunderstorm activity in this area will generally track eastward late Tuesday afternoon and evening from areas from Santa Fe to Albuquerque over portions of the central mountain chain generally b/w Las Vegas and Santa Fe southward to Ruidoso. Wednesday sees only a subtle change to the weather pattern, but perhaps with low level moisture pushing further west just past the Continental Divide. This will favor shower and thunderstorm activity a bit further west compared with Tuesday. Questions remain regarding Thursday into next weekend regarding the placement of an H5 high and deepening upper low moving into the Pacific Coast. Scenario One sees the H5 high being the dominant player over NM shunting the remnants of an EPAC tropical cyclone OTS (out to sea). Drier and warmer conditions with isolated to perhaps scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms fueled by remnant boundary layer moisture trapped beneath the high would be favored over NM in this scenario. More unsettled weather from the Pacific trough would look to push into the Four Corners region by Sunday. Scenario Two sees the Pacific trough pushing the H5 high east over TX and spinning up remnant moisture from the EPAC tropical cyclone somewhere over AZ to western NM by Friday. Stronger southerly to southwesterly winds would also be favored across NM Friday and Saturday with increased precipitation chances more over central NM by Saturday. Currently, odds on favor show a moderate (40% - 60%) chance for Scenario One compared to a lower (20% - 40%) chance for Scenario Two. Seeing as the deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF do not notably diverge with the evolution of the polar jet over the northern Pacific until Wednesday of next week, it may be a couple more days before greater clarity arrives for the forecast Thursday and beyond. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Light and variable winds most areas of central and western NM this morning, with stronger southerly gusts across far eastern NM holding on. More widespread prevailing southerly to southwesterly winds to return this afternoon, but not as strong as what was observed Saturday. A cold front will back into northeastern NM late tonight bringing a northerly to northeasterly wind shift. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1214 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 There are no critical fire weather concerns through the next 3-5 days. Modest southerly to southwesterly winds return this afternoon, but wind speeds will be limited compared to what was observed Saturday afternoon. Lighter winds and increased precipitation chances and higher humidity are the rule Monday through at least Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 71 41 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 70 32 74 36 / 0 0 0 10 Cuba............................ 70 40 74 43 / 0 0 5 10 Gallup.......................... 70 35 75 38 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 70 39 74 43 / 0 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 75 37 78 41 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 74 39 77 43 / 0 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 76 48 77 51 / 0 0 5 10 Datil........................... 72 42 74 45 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 78 40 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 82 47 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 65 35 68 38 / 0 0 5 10 Los Alamos...................... 68 46 72 49 / 0 0 10 20 Pecos........................... 70 42 71 45 / 0 0 20 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 67 40 70 43 / 0 0 5 30 Red River....................... 58 34 60 37 / 0 0 5 30 Angel Fire...................... 65 27 66 34 / 0 0 10 30 Taos............................ 70 38 73 43 / 0 0 5 30 Mora............................ 69 37 69 41 / 0 0 20 40 Espanola........................ 75 42 79 46 / 0 0 5 30 Santa Fe........................ 70 45 74 49 / 0 0 10 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 72 42 77 47 / 0 0 10 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 76 53 80 55 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 78 52 82 55 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 80 50 85 53 / 0 0 5 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 78 49 82 53 / 0 0 0 20 Belen........................... 81 48 85 51 / 0 0 5 10 Bernalillo...................... 78 47 83 52 / 0 0 5 20 Bosque Farms.................... 80 47 84 50 / 0 0 5 20 Corrales........................ 80 48 84 52 / 0 0 5 20 Los Lunas....................... 80 47 84 51 / 0 0 5 10 Placitas........................ 74 49 79 52 / 0 0 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 78 49 82 53 / 0 0 5 20 Socorro......................... 84 53 86 56 / 0 0 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 71 46 75 48 / 0 0 10 20 Tijeras......................... 72 48 77 50 / 0 0 10 20 Edgewood........................ 74 44 77 47 / 0 0 10 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 76 40 78 44 / 0 0 10 30 Clines Corners.................. 72 44 73 46 / 0 0 20 30 Mountainair..................... 74 46 76 48 / 0 0 10 20 Gran Quivira.................... 75 46 76 49 / 0 0 10 20 Carrizozo....................... 78 54 80 55 / 0 0 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 71 49 72 50 / 0 0 20 20 Capulin......................... 72 39 66 43 / 0 0 10 50 Raton........................... 74 39 68 45 / 0 0 10 40 Springer........................ 78 39 73 46 / 0 0 10 40 Las Vegas....................... 72 39 70 44 / 0 0 20 40 Clayton......................... 80 47 66 49 / 0 5 20 50 Roy............................. 76 43 71 48 / 0 0 20 50 Conchas......................... 85 49 78 52 / 0 5 20 50 Santa Rosa...................... 81 50 78 51 / 0 5 30 50 Tucumcari....................... 85 53 78 52 / 0 10 20 50 Clovis.......................... 88 58 82 56 / 0 5 20 30 Portales........................ 88 58 83 56 / 0 5 20 30 Fort Sumner..................... 85 56 82 56 / 0 10 20 40 Roswell......................... 90 60 84 60 / 0 5 10 10 Picacho......................... 84 53 81 55 / 0 0 20 10 Elk............................. 80 51 79 52 / 0 0 20 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ216. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24