Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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651 FXUS65 KABQ 092032 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 132 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 119 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025 - West winds will strengthen along the east slopes of the central mountain chain and nearby high plains of eastern New Mexico Tuesday. Localized wind gusts around 45 mph are possible from Las Vegas to Clines Corners and Vaughn. Temperatures may also warm to near record highs around Roswell Tuesday. - Southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are possible Friday over much of the region as a strong storm system approaches from the west. This system may also bring valley rain and mountain snow to much of northern and western NM this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 119 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025 An unseasonably strong 591dm H5 high over SoCal today will drift south into northwest MX Monday. Min temps tonight will be chilly again with stronger inversions under light winds and clear skies. Surface winds will veer around to the south and southwest over NM Monday. Max temps will trend closer to normal over eastern NM with southwest gusts in the 15-25 mph range. Central and western NM will remain 5-10F above normal with light winds and mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 119 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025 The next upper level shortwave trough will move southeast from the central Rockies Monday night and Tuesday. A surface low will deepen over northeast NM and help to strengthen the pressure gradient over the central mt chain. 700mb winds of 30-40kt with a weak signature favorable for mt waves will help to increase the chances for west to northwest wind gusts in the 35-45 mph range from near Las Vegas to Clines Corners and Vaughn Tuesday. Downslope flow in this regime will help max temps to trend 10-15F above normal over eastern NM. A near-record high is possible at Roswell. Flow aloft will flatten Wednesday then become more west/southwest by Thursday ahead of a storm system approaching the west coast. Cirrus will become more noticeable both days with filtered sunshine and slight afternoon breezes. Max temps will remain 5-10F above normal over central and western NM and 10-15F above normal over eastern NM. Forecast confidence is increasing that an unsettled weather pattern will begin Friday as a strong storm system swings thru the southern Rockies. Despite a lot of uncertainty with the timing, strength, and orientation of how the system swings thru the area, confidence is moderate to high that stronger winds and colder temps will arrive Friday. Confidence is still low on the coverage of rain/snow but the latest WPC QPF is hinting at widespread precip amounts of 0.25-0.50" in the northern and western high terrain next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025 VFR all terminals the next 24 hrs with patchy cirrus. Locally breezy winds this morning will taper off thru this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 119 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025 Tranquil weather will continue thru Monday with warming temps, low humidity, relatively light winds, and mostly clear skies. The next upper level trough will swing thru NM Tuesday with stronger west winds along the central mt chain and nearby high plains of eastern NM. Marginally critical fire weather is likely in the area from near Las Vegas to Clines Corners, Vaughn, and northeast Lincoln County where several hours of min RH near 15% will occur with wind gusts up to 45 mph. Max temps will also warm 10-15F above normal over central and eastern NM. The upper level ridge over northwest MX will break down over the area Wednesday and Thursday followed by increasing southwest flow ahead of the next storm system Friday. Widespread southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are possible Friday but with higher humidity and cooler temps. Valley rain and mountain snow is possible late Friday thru Sunday but forecast confidence remains low to moderate on coverage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 30 62 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 20 64 23 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 27 62 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 24 66 27 67 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 30 65 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 23 67 27 69 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 29 67 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 33 63 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 31 65 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 25 72 30 74 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 28 74 34 77 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 24 60 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 33 59 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 27 62 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 29 60 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 21 58 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 13 59 22 61 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 20 62 24 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 24 64 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 25 66 29 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 31 60 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 27 61 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 38 62 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 34 64 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 30 65 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 34 64 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 26 65 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 32 66 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 25 65 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 32 65 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 27 64 30 69 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 35 62 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 34 65 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 33 67 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 31 59 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 28 63 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 23 64 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 18 64 28 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 25 59 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 29 60 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 29 59 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 31 62 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 31 59 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 21 62 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 20 65 31 73 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 18 65 30 74 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 24 63 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 26 65 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 23 61 34 74 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 24 66 35 79 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 26 67 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 25 65 38 78 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 28 64 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 27 65 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 26 63 34 79 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 31 65 36 82 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 29 67 41 78 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 26 68 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...42