039
FXUS65 KABQ 300931
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
231 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Falling temperatures are expected Sunday with highs on Monday
  varying from a few to as much as 15 degrees below 30-year
  averages. Even colder temperatures are expected Thursday.

- Accumulating snow will make roads slick in the north central and
  northwest mountains Sunday night into Monday morning, as well as
  the Chuska Mountains. Travel may become difficult through the
  Tusas Mountains.

- Accumulating snow may again make roads slick in many locations
  from the east slopes of the central mountain chain westward
  Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, including portions of I-25
  and I-40 from Las Vegas to Moriarty and Clines Corners. The
  heaviest snow currently looks to impact the northern mountains,
  where travel may become difficult.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1233 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Gusty east canyon winds will taper off toward sunrise this
morning, when the Sunport should finally, officially drop below
freezing for the first time this season. This will be the latest
first freeze on record for the Sunport, smashing the previous
latest first freeze which occurred on November 22, 2007. Otherwise,
widespread low clouds east of the central mountain chain, as well
as around Los Alamos and Santa Fe, will gradually diminish by mid
morning Sunday. Surface winds will then veer out of the south and
southwest during midday and afternoon. Despite the southerly
winds, in the wake of the backdoor cold front that crossed on
Saturday, high temperatures on Sunday will fall a few degrees
across western parts of the forecast area, several degrees across
central parts, and up to 26 degrees on the eastern plains.

Sunday night and early Monday, a quick hitting upper level trough
and Pacific cold front will swing through the central Rockies and
northern NM from the northwest, while producing accumulating snow
in New Mexico`s northern mountains and northwest highlands near
and above 7000 feet. A few inches of snow are expected from Dulce
to Chama, and as much as 8 inches in the Tusas Mountains where a
Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 6 PM Sunday until 8
AM Monday. A few inches of snow are also expected above 8000 feet
in the Chuska Mountains, as well as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
where up to a half foot of fresh powder is forecast on the highest
peaks. High temperatures on Monday are forecast to fall a few to
13 degrees from Sunday`s readings along and west of the central
mountain chain, while warming up to 12 degrees on the eastern
plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1233 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

In between systems on Tuesday, high temperatures will climb a few
to 15 degrees from Monday`s readings, varying within 5 degrees
either side of 30-year averages.

A deeper upper level trough and Pacific cold front will then
cross from the northwest with more widespread precipitation
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Ensemble cluster analysis
indicates models are coming into better agreement with this
system, with the two most likely scenarios depicting a closed
upper level low pressure system forming over AZ Wednesday and
Wednesday night, then probably opening into a trough as it tracks
eastward over northern and central NM on Thursday. Ahead of the
upper level trough a backdoor cold front will dive southwestward
through the eastern plains Tuesday night, then through gaps in the
central mountain chain with a moderately gusty east wind below
canyons opening into the central valley Wednesday night. Snow
levels will probably vary around 5000-7000 feet Wednesday
afternoon and night, except east of the central mountain chain
where snow levels may fall near 4000 feet by Thursday morning.
Most of the precipitation will probably fall Wednesday night and
Thursday, with a few to several inches of accumulation in the
northern mountains above 8000 feet, and a few inches elsewhere as
low as 6000 feet from the east slopes of the central mountain
chain to the continental divide. Models vary on how quickly the
upper trough will exit Thursday night, so some wintry precip may
linger. High temperatures look to bottom out in most places on
Thursday with readings around 3-20 degrees bellow 1991-2020
averages.

Dry and probably gusty northwest flow aloft is then forecast at
the end of the week with with gradually warming temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

The backdoor front has surged westward through the gaps of the
central mountain chain, creating east wind gusts of 20 to 30 kts
at KABQ. MVFR to IFR cigs have developed along the east slopes of
the central mountain chain and will persist for several hours, as
low clouds expand eastward. There is a moderate chance that low
clouds sneak through Glorieta Pass, creating MVFR cigs for a few
hours between now and 12Z at KSAF and a low chance that they push
as far east as KROW. East winds in the wake of the frontal
passage will begin to diminish after 12Z, with winds turning
around to the south/southwest in the afternoon out ahead of a
positively tilted trough. Rain/snow showers associated with a
Pacific cold front will enter from the northwest around 00Z,
quickly pushing south and east as cigs drop upon its arrival.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Minimum humidities are forecast to stay above 15 percent for the
next seven days. South and southwest winds will probably gust up
to 40 mph Sunday afternoon around Gallup, and from Las Vegas to
Raton and Clayton. Gap winds in the central valley may reach up
to 35 mph from Santa Fe southward through Albuquerque and east of
Socorro Wednesday night. Otherwise, areas of poor ventilation
Sunday and Monday should become broader Tuesday and Wednesday,
then widespread Thursday and Friday, before some ventilation
improvement over western and south central parts of the fire
weather forecast area on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  27  42  21 /   5  60   0   0
Dulce...........................  47  20  40  10 /  30  80  10   0
Cuba............................  44  22  37  14 /   0  60  10   0
Gallup..........................  53  20  43  11 /   0  50   5   0
El Morro........................  52  25  42  19 /   0  20  10   0
Grants..........................  55  24  45  11 /   0  30   5   0
Quemado.........................  57  29  44  18 /   0   5   5   0
Magdalena.......................  54  32  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  53  29  45  21 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  58  25  52  19 /   0   0   5   0
Glenwood........................  63  30  59  24 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  41  18  33   9 /  30  90  20   0
Los Alamos......................  42  28  40  21 /   0  60  10   0
Pecos...........................  43  25  42  19 /   0  30  10   5
Cerro/Questa....................  41  23  35  16 /   5  70  30   0
Red River.......................  34  18  27  10 /   0  70  30   0
Angel Fire......................  40  14  34   0 /   0  60  20   5
Taos............................  44  22  38  10 /   0  70  20   0
Mora............................  44  22  40  15 /   0  40  10   5
Espanola........................  49  26  46  16 /   0  60  10   0
Santa Fe........................  43  28  41  22 /   0  40   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  46  27  44  19 /   0  40   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  51  35  47  29 /   0  20   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  34  50  24 /   0  10   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  55  33  52  22 /   0  10   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  52  35  50  24 /   0  20   0   0
Belen...........................  55  30  53  19 /   0   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  52  33  49  23 /   0  20   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  55  31  52  17 /   0  10   0   0
Corrales........................  54  34  50  23 /   0  20   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  55  32  52  20 /   0  10   0   0
Placitas........................  49  33  46  26 /   0  20   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  52  34  49  24 /   0  20   0   0
Socorro.........................  57  33  56  25 /   0   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  46  30  42  22 /   0  20   0   0
Tijeras.........................  48  31  44  24 /   0  10   0   0
Edgewood........................  50  29  44  19 /   0  10   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  28  47  13 /   0  10   0   0
Clines Corners..................  43  27  43  19 /   0   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  49  30  46  22 /   0   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  49  30  47  22 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  52  33  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  49  34  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  31  14  32  14 /   0  10  10   0
Raton...........................  35  15  37  11 /   0  30  20   0
Springer........................  39  16  41  12 /   0  20   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  37  22  43  16 /   0  10   5   0
Clayton.........................  34  20  38  19 /   0   5   5   0
Roy.............................  35  18  41  16 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  42  22  47  19 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  40  22  50  20 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  42  22  45  19 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  39  22  47  21 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  40  20  51  19 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  42  20  52  19 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  45  25  57  25 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  45  25  57  25 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  51  28  57  24 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
Monday for NMZ210.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44