Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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886 FXUS65 KABQ 151747 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1047 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1041 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 - One more day of near record high temperatures is forecast in the Roswell, Clovis, and Portales area today. - Rain showers and mountain snow showers are expected over western and north central New Mexico Sunday and Sunday night. A few inches of snow are expected above 8500 feet, mainly near the Colorado border. - Rain and mountain snow showers may become more widespread Tuesday through Thursday, especially across western NM, as another storm system crosses the state. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1207 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 An upper level ridge will remain over the region today as an upper low, currently offshore of SoCal per the latest water vapor satellite imagery, moves slowly east toward the coast. Another abnormally warm day is expected, with high temperatures generally 10-20 degrees above average across the forecast area. High temperatures will challenge daily record values at a number of locales including but not limited to Albuquerque, Clovis, Portales and Roswell. The ridge will shift east tonight and give way to increasing southwest flow aloft ahead of the upper low, which is forecast to lift northeast into the Great Basin and Desert Southwest going into Sunday. Moisture advection will be the rule during this period, with PWATs ascending to above average Sunday, resulting in increasing cloud cover and chances for showers along and west of the Continental Divide. Temperatures will trend down Sunday as a result of the cloud cover and top-down moistening process, especially across western NM where high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees lower than today`s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1207 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 The upper low/trough will continue to fill and lift northeast Sunday night toward the central and southern Rockies, delivering a glancing blow to northwest NM and shifting the focus for showers to areas near the Colorado border. The peaks of the Tusas Mountains will pick up a couple inches of snow through Sunday night, with low probabilities for amounts exceeding three inches. In addition, the passing upper low/trough will steer stronger westerly winds aloft across the northern mountains and bring windy conditions to the higher terrain of the Sangre De Cristos, including the east slopes going into Monday morning. A Wind Advisory may be required, but is a lower probability (20-30%) event at this time. The upper low/trough will eject east out of the Rockies on Monday and the next in a series of upper level troughs will dive southeast into central CA. That upper level trough/low will be on a collision-course with NM and is forecast to bring cooler and unsettled conditions from Tuesday through Thursday of next week. Although the 00Z operational runs of the medium range models differ on the exact placement/track of the upper low, they agree on the timing with the upper level trough axis moving over Wednesday night and exiting Thursday. Precipitation will favor western NM Tue/Wed with snow levels occasionally dropping to around 6k feet, although any notable accumulation will likely remain at 7500ft or higher. The lack of a backdoor cold front with this system will limit precipitation production and keep snow accumulation mostly in the mountains. Another, colder and potentially more impactful upper low will follow next weekend, but lower forecast confidence on the timing and impacts due to notable model spread at that projection. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. High and mid level clouds will increase over western areas late tonight and Sunday morning as an upper level trough approaches the Four Corners. Sunday afternoon and evening, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over western and north central areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1207 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. Vent rates will be a mixed bag of poor/good today under the influence of an upper level ridge. The ridge will shift east Sunday and vent rates will improve to good across much of the area. A series of upper level troughs/lows will impact the region with cooler and unsettled conditions Sunday into Monday morning, then again from Tuesday through early Thursday. The mid week system will bring higher humidity and improved chances for wetting precipitation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 68 40 65 37 / 0 5 50 50 Dulce........................... 67 25 62 29 / 0 0 40 80 Cuba............................ 67 35 62 31 / 0 0 30 40 Gallup.......................... 68 33 61 30 / 0 0 50 30 El Morro........................ 66 35 60 33 / 0 0 40 30 Grants.......................... 70 33 64 31 / 0 0 30 30 Quemado......................... 68 36 60 31 / 0 0 20 10 Magdalena....................... 69 43 65 37 / 0 0 0 5 Datil........................... 67 37 60 32 / 0 0 5 5 Reserve......................... 70 35 62 30 / 0 0 30 10 Glenwood........................ 76 40 68 34 / 0 5 30 5 Chama........................... 62 30 57 27 / 0 0 20 80 Los Alamos...................... 64 41 61 35 / 0 0 5 50 Pecos........................... 69 38 63 34 / 0 0 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 64 37 60 32 / 0 0 0 40 Red River....................... 62 32 53 25 / 0 0 0 40 Angel Fire...................... 65 23 59 22 / 0 0 0 30 Taos............................ 67 30 64 31 / 0 0 0 40 Mora............................ 68 35 65 31 / 0 0 0 20 Espanola........................ 71 33 69 34 / 0 0 5 40 Santa Fe........................ 67 41 62 36 / 0 0 0 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 70 36 65 34 / 0 0 5 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 47 67 42 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 73 41 70 39 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 74 38 72 38 / 0 0 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 72 42 70 39 / 0 0 10 10 Belen........................... 73 36 72 37 / 0 0 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 73 40 70 38 / 0 0 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 73 35 72 36 / 0 0 5 5 Corrales........................ 73 40 71 38 / 0 0 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 73 37 71 37 / 0 0 5 5 Placitas........................ 70 44 66 39 / 0 0 5 20 Rio Rancho...................... 71 41 70 39 / 0 0 10 20 Socorro......................... 75 43 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 67 40 62 35 / 0 0 5 10 Tijeras......................... 68 41 64 37 / 0 0 5 10 Edgewood........................ 69 37 65 34 / 0 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 72 31 67 33 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 68 38 63 34 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 70 40 65 36 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 71 40 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 74 44 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 70 45 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 68 36 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 72 33 69 33 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 74 31 71 34 / 0 0 0 5 Las Vegas....................... 70 38 67 37 / 0 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 74 41 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 74 38 69 38 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 79 38 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 77 40 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 80 39 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 81 45 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 82 43 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 81 40 78 43 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 84 45 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 82 45 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 79 42 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...44