359
FXUS65 KABQ 200807
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
107 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 102 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Low elevation rain and mountain snow will continue across
  northern and central New Mexico through the morning and
  afternoon before refocusing over northern areas of the state
  this evening.

- A couple to a few inches of accumulating snow will be favored
  above 8500 feet through the evening.

- Another storm system will bring a round of lower elevation rain
  and mountain snow Saturday night through early Monday morning. A
  few inches of accumulating snow will again be favored above
  8500 feet.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 102 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

A deep upper level low pressure system is spinning near the lower
Colorado river basin between CA/AZ early this morning. The low is
stretched along a north-south axis with a secondary vort lobe
rounding the upper Gulf of CA, and moist diffluent southwesterly
flow aloft is feeding into NM ahead of the low. This has yielded a
swath of rain and high mountain snow across south central to
central NM with convection and thunderstorms ongoing in AZ. The
upper low axis will become increasingly negatively tilted as it
moves eastward with the southernmost vort lobe translating toward
southwestern NM by mid day. This will keep widespread, mostly
stratiform rain and high elevation snow going through the morning
with a trend toward more embedded convective cells and lightning
by the afternoon and the focus aligning toward northern NM by late
in the day. The southernmost vort lobe would eject toward the
tri-state area of southeast CO, southwest KS, and the OK panhandle
by late this evening with westerly flow persisting in the wake
over most of NM. Showers would undergo a quick dwindling over
northern NM by late this evening. Widespread QPF of 0.1 to 0.3
will fall between now and this time with lesser amounts across the
northwestern plateau of NM (Farmington area). Higher liquid
equivalent amounts are expected over the mountains. Snow levels
currently starting around 9,500 to 10,500 for much of NM will
lower toward 8,000-8,500 ft for many mountainous zones (lower in
southwest NM) through mid day as the cold core aloft moves
overhead. This will result in a few inches of snow over higher
peaks with the northern mountains still projected to receive 3-8
inches of wet accumulation where the Winter Weather Advisory looks
to be on track.

With precipitation abating, many central to eastern areas will
undergo clearing tonight, but western and northern high terrain
areas will have more stubborn low stratus, stratocumulus, and even
patchy ground fog where saturated soils are. These will erode away
into the daytime hours Friday with new batches of mid to high
level clouds starting to feed into the state as the next upper low
quickly moves down the CA coast and starts to pump additional
moisture our way. After a cooler than normal day today,
temperatures on Friday will moderate, reaching closer to seasonal
normals.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 102 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

By Saturday, the upper low offshore of southern CA will start to
move over the upper Baja peninsula, becoming more vertically
stacked. This will limit the amount of cloud cover that pivots
ahead of the low into NM with just a spoke or two of mid level
moisture sliding up from the southwest. Temperatures will respond
upward a few degrees in western zones with all areas running near
to just slightly above late November averages.

The low will change course into Saturday night, crossing
northeastward into AZ and then heading for the NM-CO border
through the day Sunday. This will once again spread widespread
mostly stratiform rain and high elevation snow over much of NM
with the blended consensus for QPF generally ranging between
0.25-0.5 with slightly higher amounts in the far eastern plains
and lesser amounts in the far west. In fact, probabilities for QPF
greater than 0.1 are quite high (60-80%) for most of the
forecast area Saturday night through Sunday. Temperatures with the
cold core low will be similar, but slightly warmer than its
predecessor with 700 mb readings generally running at -2 to -3 C,
only cold enough to support light, wet snow accumulations of a few
inches (2-8) above 8,500-9,000 ft. The low would exit to the
northeast Sunday night and early Monday morning with a cessation
of precipitation and a clearing trend in NM. It is noted that
earlier model runs have struggled with some continuity with
indications that the low might cut off and separate from the polar
jet which would send it on a more erratic track farther south.
Given the current La Nina conditions present and a lack of robust
convection within the ITCZ, this more northern track loosely
tethered with the polar jet seems more plausible.

After a slightly cooler than normal day on Sunday amid clouds and
precipitation, drier northwest flow aloft will prevail for the
first half of the subsequent work week. Temperatures would turn
more seasonable into Monday and more-so into Tuesday. However, a
dry backdoor cold front will invade Tuesday, setting high
temperatures back several degrees into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

An area of rain and mountain peak snow currently across southwest
and south central NM will move northeast across the rest of
central and eastern NM early Thursday morning with the coverage of
this activity increasing. Prevailing MVFR with localized areas of
IFR conditions are expected with this area of rain, with mountain
peak snow resulting in mountain obscurations. More showery
activity expected across western and central NM during the
afternoon allowing ceilings to improve to low end VFR, but some
MVFR to IFR conditions and graupel cannot be ruled out with
heavier showers. More widespread light rain continues across far
eastern NM with ceilings improving to VFR during the evening hours.
Skies clearing across lower elevations Thursday evening and
Thursday night with lingering low clouds across the western and
northern mountains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 102 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

No critical fire weather concerns exist for the next several days,
as a pair of low pressure systems will bring widespread wetting
precipitation to the forecast area both today and again Saturday
night into Sunday. Prescribed burning interests will face high
humidity today with excellent humidity recoveries each following
night, especially Saturday night with ongoing precipitation. Drier
daytime conditions will unfold Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of
next week, but good to excellent humidity recovery will still
occur each night. Smoke ventilation and dispersion rates will tend
to run on the lower side with limited pockets of brief mixing in
isolated areas during the mid to late afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  35  51  32 /  40  20   0   0
Dulce...........................  48  26  49  20 /  70  30   5   0
Cuba............................  45  29  49  27 /  80  20   0   0
Gallup..........................  46  25  50  25 /  50  10   0   5
El Morro........................  43  28  49  30 /  70  10   0   5
Grants..........................  46  24  52  25 /  60   5   0   5
Quemado.........................  45  25  51  30 /  70  10   0   5
Magdalena.......................  46  28  50  33 /  80   0   0   0
Datil...........................  42  25  49  30 /  70   5   0   5
Reserve.........................  44  22  55  25 /  80   0   0  10
Glenwood........................  46  25  58  30 /  80   0   5  10
Chama...........................  43  25  45  20 /  80  40   5   5
Los Alamos......................  44  31  48  32 /  90  30   0   0
Pecos...........................  45  28  52  28 /  90  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  43  28  47  27 /  80  40   5   5
Red River.......................  38  22  41  21 /  80  40   5   5
Angel Fire......................  41  16  47  13 /  80  30   0   5
Taos............................  46  27  50  22 /  80  30   0   0
Mora............................  44  25  52  25 /  90  20   0   0
Espanola........................  50  30  55  27 /  90  30   0   0
Santa Fe........................  46  32  50  32 /  90  20   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  47  30  51  29 /  90  20   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  49  36  53  38 /  90  10   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  50  33  55  35 /  90  20   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  51  32  57  34 /  90  10   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  50  33  55  35 /  90  20   0   0
Belen...........................  52  29  55  30 /  90   5   0   0
Bernalillo......................  50  33  56  34 /  90  20   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  51  28  55  30 /  90  10   0   0
Corrales........................  50  33  57  34 /  90  20   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  51  30  55  31 /  90  10   0   0
Placitas........................  48  35  52  36 /  90  20   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  50  33  55  35 /  90  20   0   0
Socorro.........................  53  32  57  34 /  90   5   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  45  30  49  32 /  90  20   0   0
Tijeras.........................  47  31  50  32 /  90  10   0   0
Edgewood........................  46  28  52  28 /  90  10   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  48  26  53  23 /  90  10   0   0
Clines Corners..................  45  28  50  28 /  90   5   0   0
Mountainair.....................  46  28  51  28 /  90  10   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  47  28  52  29 /  90   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  49  31  55  34 /  90   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  45  30  52  32 /  90   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  47  28  52  26 /  80  40   5   5
Raton...........................  48  27  56  27 /  80  30   5   5
Springer........................  51  25  57  25 /  80  20   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  47  28  55  27 /  90  10   0   0
Clayton.........................  54  36  58  32 /  90  40   0   0
Roy.............................  51  30  57  30 /  90  20   0   0
Conchas.........................  58  33  62  32 /  90  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  54  35  60  31 /  90   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  59  35  64  31 /  80  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  59  38  65  35 /  90  10   0   0
Portales........................  60  37  65  32 /  90  10   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  57  35  64  31 /  80   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  61  36  65  35 /  70   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  56  32  62  33 /  70   0   0   0
Elk.............................  53  27  62  30 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for NMZ210-211-213-
214.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...71