848
FXUS65 KABQ 221913
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1213 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Minor impacts expected late tonight through Sunday from the next
  round of winter weather bringing valley rain and mountain snow.
  Three to eight inches of accumulating snow will again be
  favored above 8,500 feet.

- Those with travel plans for the late weekend and early week
  after Thanksgiving will want to stay updated with the latest
  weather forecasts and statements. Remain prepared to alter
  travel routes or plans, as there are increasing indications a
  potent storm system will bring travel impacts across the Desert
  Southwest, including New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1209 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Low level stratus and freezing fog have dissipated across
northeastern and east-central NM this hour with high level cirrus
beginning to encroach into far western NM ahead of the next winter
system. WV satellite imagery shows the well defined 558dm H5 low
just offshore of the northern Baja Peninsula with a spoke of
vorticity wrapping around its southern periphery. Dry conditions
persist thru the afternoon today before the aforementioned vort-max
rotates up around the eastern periphery of the H5 low bringing up a
solid band of convective showers with embedded isolated
thunderstorms into southwestern NM late this evening. The band then
progresses north and east to Gallup to Socorro by 2am to 4am MST,
Farmington to ABQ to Santa Fe 3am to 5am MST, and then over the
highlands and northern mountains near or just after that. Snow
levels steadily fall from 9,000` at the onset of precipitation
tonight to 8,000` to 8,500` Sunday morning. Accumulating snowfall
will favor these elevations and higher over the northern mountains
where 3 to 8 inches are favored with locally higher amounts atop the
peaks. Lighter amounts of a dusting to an inch or so on southwest
and west facing slopes along the Continental Divide. The Winter
Weather Advisory was left intact with only a slight delay to the
onset to 2am MST with this forecast package.

The Pacific front quickly fills in through western and central NM
mid-day Sunday with wrap around moisture bringing lingering
scattered showers over western, central, and northern NM thru the
rest of the day Sunday. This activity slowly wanes thru the
afternoon and Sunday night as snow levels fall to 7,500` alongside
post-frontal CAA. This activity looks to completely end by early
Monday morning with remnant lingering fog and freezing fog over
portions of western, central, and northern NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1209 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

Temperatures rebound Monday afternoon with a tightening pressure
gradient aloft over NM as a shortwave system traverses eastern MT/WY
and out over the northern Great Plains. This will yield breezy to
windy northwesterly winds along and just east of the central
mountain chain Monday. Thereafter, the shortwave to the north will
send down a cold front backing into eastern NM Tuesday, knocking
back high temperatures 5F to 15F into the 40s to low 60s. Wednesday
through Friday including the Thanksgiving Holiday looks rather
pleasant across the Land of Enchantment with warming temperatures
and moderate afternoon winds.

The extended period of late next weekend into early next week
continues to see a strong signal for a much more amplified polar jet
over the northern Pacific. Numerical model guidance and their
associated suite of ensemble members are in remarkably good
agreement that a sharp and deepening troughing pattern will bring
the seasons first significant winter storm system across a large
portion of the western CONUS. How far south this system dives into
the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico and the inner workings of
it remain a question this far out. However, those with post-
Thanksgiving travel plans during this timeframe should stay aware of
the latest forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 AM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

IFR/MVFR low ceilings and fog have or are rapidly clearing over the
remaining spots they developed over this past morning over
east-central and northeastern NM as well as at KFMN. VFR will
prevail thru the afternoon and early evening before the next winter
weather system enters from the west-southwest tonight. An area of
valley rain and mountain snow (snow levels 8,000` to 8,500`) will
progress southwest to northeast across the state tonight. First
reaching KFMN-KGUP near 09Z to 10Z, it will progress to KABQ-KSAF by
10Z to 11Z, and over the highlands and eastern plains by and after
12Z. A brief one to two hour window will accompany the passage of
this shower activity for IFR/MVFR vis and ceilings before clearing
and more scattered off-and-on showers push in behind the cold front
Sunday for the rest of Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1209 PM MST Sat Nov 22 2025

No fire weather concerns through the holiday week. Winter weather
traverses much of the state tonight thru Sunday. Breezy to locally
windy conditions will focus over the highlands along and just east
of the central mountain chain Monday afternoon. Temperatures rebound
late week after a brief cool down over eastern NM Tuesday, alongside
modest winds and minimum humidity staying at or above 25 to 30
percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  41  50  34  52 /  70  60   5   0
Dulce...........................  28  47  26  47 /  50 100  30   0
Cuba............................  33  45  31  48 /  70  80  20   0
Gallup..........................  30  44  28  52 /  80  50  10   0
El Morro........................  33  43  32  48 /  80  60  30   0
Grants..........................  31  47  29  53 /  80  50  20   0
Quemado.........................  33  46  31  50 /  80  40  10   0
Magdalena.......................  37  49  34  54 /  80  40   5   0
Datil...........................  33  45  32  49 /  80  30  10   0
Reserve.........................  32  48  24  59 /  90  50   5   0
Glenwood........................  35  54  28  63 /  90  50   0   0
Chama...........................  28  41  24  43 /  40  90  40   0
Los Alamos......................  35  43  32  47 /  70  90  30   0
Pecos...........................  33  45  30  50 /  70  90  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  31  42  28  45 /  20  90  30   0
Red River.......................  25  36  23  38 /  20  90  20   0
Angel Fire......................  20  42  18  44 /  30  90  20   0
Taos............................  28  45  27  48 /  30  90  20   0
Mora............................  29  45  26  51 /  50  90  10   0
Espanola........................  31  50  30  53 /  60  90  30   0
Santa Fe........................  36  46  34  48 /  70  90  20   0
Santa Fe Airport................  36  48  32  51 /  70  90  20   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  43  52  39  54 /  70  80   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  41  54  35  57 /  70  70   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  41  56  33  60 /  70  70   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  41  53  36  57 /  70  70   5   0
Belen...........................  37  56  31  59 /  80  60   0   0
Bernalillo......................  41  54  36  58 /  70  80   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  37  55  29  59 /  70  70   0   0
Corrales........................  41  54  35  59 /  70  70   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  38  55  31  59 /  70  60   0   0
Placitas........................  40  50  37  53 /  70  80   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  41  53  35  57 /  70  70   5   0
Socorro.........................  41  59  35  63 /  80  50   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  36  47  33  49 /  70  80   5   0
Tijeras.........................  37  48  34  51 /  70  80   5   0
Edgewood........................  34  50  32  51 /  70  80   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  33  51  29  53 /  70  80   0   0
Clines Corners..................  32  47  30  49 /  60  80   0   0
Mountainair.....................  35  50  32  52 /  70  80   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  36  51  32  53 /  70  70   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  41  55  33  55 /  60  70   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  36  50  32  51 /  50  70   0   0
Capulin.........................  28  44  26  53 /   0  80   5   0
Raton...........................  28  46  25  57 /   5  80  10   0
Springer........................  27  49  25  59 /  10  80   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  31  46  29  54 /  40  90   0   0
Clayton.........................  35  50  36  60 /   0  90   0   0
Roy.............................  33  47  29  59 /  10  90   0   0
Conchas.........................  34  55  35  64 /  20  90   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  36  53  37  60 /  40  90   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  35  55  37  65 /  10  90   0   0
Clovis..........................  40  57  39  64 /  20  80   5   0
Portales........................  39  59  39  65 /  20  80   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  37  58  37  64 /  30  80   0   0
Roswell.........................  43  64  37  67 /  30  60   0   0
Picacho.........................  38  63  35  64 /  30  50   0   0
Elk.............................  34  61  30  63 /  40  60   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to midnight MST Sunday
night for NMZ210-211-213-214.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24