Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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243 FXUS65 KABQ 240818 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 118 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 116 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 - Low visibility from fog will potentially impact west facing mountain slopes and nearby areas within western and northern NM through the morning. - Those with travel plans after Thanksgiving, including this weekend and early week, will want to stay updated with the latest weather forecasts and statements. Be prepared to alter travel routes or plans, as there are increasing indications a potent storm system will bring travel impacts across the Desert Southwest, including New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 116 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 Precipitation from yesterday`s upper level low has mostly diminished with just a few light echoes over northwestern to north central NM still occasionally showing up on radar. Of more consequence will likely be the lower layer moisture left behind which has led to low stratus clouds with the potential for patchy fog development through dawn. Confidence in widespread fog is too low for an issuance of a preemptive Freezing Fog or Dense Fog Advisory, but this last- minute decision is a possibility through dawn. The upper low will lift northeastward into KS through the day, and west northwest flow aloft will prevail. The winds at 700 mb will range between 10 and 30 kt with some of this momentum aloft mixing down to the surface this afternoon, namely in the central highlands and nearby plains. Any fog will have burned off by late morning and early afternoon, but stratus and stratocumulus will linger well into the afternoon in western and northwestern zones today. Otherwise, temperatures will warm up to, or slightly above, normal today. Dry conditions will hold into Tuesday, and the primary feature of interest will be a surface cold front that enters northern zones while its parent upper low progressively crosses the northern Great Plains. While perturbed northwest flow may spawn some flurries and sprinkles in CO, no precipitation is foreseen in NM with shifting winds and modest cold air advection being the only concerns with the front. Even with a few to several degrees of cooling, daytime highs Tuesday will still be close to normal. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 116 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 Tuesday`s front will continue overtaking much of northern and eastern NM into Tuesday night with a weak east wind even seeping into the middle Rio Grande valley. This will set temperatures just a couple degrees below normal on Wednesday in the far east while most remaining zones stay near to slightly above. Dry conditions will prevail, and by the late afternoon Wednesday light to moderate breezes will already be veering southwesterly in the plains. A weak ridge aloft will move over NM on Thanksgiving, offering warmer than normal and tranquil weather conditions. The dirty ridge will usher in a canopy of high, fair weather cirrus on Thursday, and these cloud bases will steadily lower into Friday while dry and slightly stronger zonal flow aloft feeds into NM. This will lead to some moderate westerly breezes Friday afternoon with temperatures being comparable to Thursday`s (generally 3 to 8 degrees above normal). By this time, strong attention will be placed upstream toward the Great Basin and Pacific Northwestern states where the next upper trough is modeled to be. This will have implications into the weekend with concerns for holiday travelers on return routes. There has been and still is quite a bit of noise among the deterministic models, but there is some consensus for a deep low to dive south in the vicinity of southern CA, AZ, and the Baja by Sunday and Monday (Dec 1), but the ECMWF has introduced a preceding shortwave trough that could offer a brief bout of light precip as early as Saturday if it should cross northeast NM as advertised. Colder air would accompany, but there is much uncertainty as to what degree; currently the operational 00Z GFS is considerably colder (500 mb heights dropping to near 546 decameters late Monday the 1st) with ensemble means of course smoothing out and narrowing the differences within each model family. The deterministic solutions also show signs of the low potentially cutting off, but a track this far south seems less likely given current La Nina conditions and an absence of robust convection in the eastern equatorial Pacific waters. Another potential fly in the ointment could be the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that is projected (at 50 mb and 10 mb from GFS) that could unleash cold air down to mid latitudes, something that CPC`s 8-14 day outlook has latched onto. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 IFR conditions are forecast to develop later tonight, around 09-10Z, at KFMN and KGUP, with moderate confidence. IR satellite imagery shows higher clouds gradually thinning/clearing north of KFMN. Once this clearing moves in, light westerly upslope flow should lead to low clouds and fog/mist. Guidance has been inconsistent with density of fog, as well as preferred locations and whether stratus will lower all the way to the surface; otherwise, confidence would have been higher. Elsewhere, VFR is expected to prevail with light-moderate breezes as the weekend storm system continues to move away to the northeast, over CO. KSAF could see a brief MVFR deck overnight, but confidence is low- moderate. Short-term guidance has been consistently developing LLWS over KLVS tonight, once surface winds slacken to below 10 knots, so have included it in the TAF. Less confident on any duration of LLWS at KTCC and KROW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 116 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 Precipitation is waning, but high humidity will start out the day with lots of stratus and stratocumulus expected to linger into the afternoon over western and some northern areas of NM today. After humidity falls to 30 to 60% this afternoon, excellent humidity recovery will ensue tonight, and most nights thereafter for that matter. Dry conditions will hold through Thanksgiving and Friday with a brief cool down (only slightly below normal) Tuesday and Wednesday. Uncertainties then exist for the weekend and early next week, but cooler and wetter weather is seeming more likely. Poor smoke ventilation and inefficient mixing and dispersion will plague many prescribed burning efforts through the week, but the central highlands will observe breezy conditions this afternoon which would offer a temporary reprieve. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 52 29 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 48 21 49 15 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 49 23 49 21 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 52 20 52 17 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 49 25 52 22 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 55 22 54 19 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 51 25 53 22 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 56 31 55 29 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 51 27 54 24 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 60 23 62 24 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 64 26 68 28 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 44 17 45 14 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 48 29 49 27 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 52 28 53 22 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 46 23 46 20 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 39 17 39 15 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 46 12 46 11 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 49 21 49 17 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 53 25 52 19 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 56 24 55 22 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 49 31 50 26 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 26 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 36 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 58 31 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 29 60 28 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 58 33 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 59 26 58 24 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 58 30 58 27 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 59 25 59 24 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 59 31 59 27 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 59 26 59 25 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 53 33 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 57 31 57 28 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 63 33 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 50 30 50 25 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 51 31 52 26 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 53 28 53 22 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 25 54 18 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 50 28 51 23 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 53 28 54 23 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 54 28 55 24 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 56 33 59 30 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 53 34 55 28 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 51 26 44 19 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 56 23 51 18 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 58 22 54 19 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 56 26 52 22 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 58 33 49 24 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 58 28 52 23 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 64 28 58 26 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 61 32 56 26 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 66 29 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 65 34 60 29 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 66 33 62 28 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 65 34 61 27 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 68 36 67 33 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 64 37 65 29 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 64 31 66 26 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...53