462
FXUS65 KABQ 290707
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1207 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

- A backdoor cold front today will drop low temperatures to the
  coldest readings so far this season. Low temperatures in the
  teens and 20s will be common Saturday night.

- Slick and icy roads from snow are forecast across the northern
  and west central high terrain Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Colder Sunday and Monday with high temperatures slightly below
  average across western and central New Mexico and well below
  average across eastern New Mexico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1207 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

An upper level trough is quickly moving southeast through the
central Rockies early this morning resulting in some mountain wave
activity across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. These waves should
remain trapped aloft and not crash to the surface. A backdoor front
will move into northeast NM mid this morning and through all of the
eastern plains by the early afternoon. This front will cool
temperatures across northeast NM as the day progresses with highs
likely occurring during the morning due to strong cold air advection
for the rest of the day. Peak north wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph near
the TX border (i.e. Clayton, Clovis and Portales) behind the
backdoor front midday Saturday and early Saturday afternoon. Colder
air settles in, especially across eastern NM, Saturday night into
Sunday morning behind the backdoor front. Lows will be across the
teens to near 20 across north central, northeast and east central NM
and 20s to near 30 across the rest of the lower elevations in the
forecast area. The backdoor front will push through the gaps of the
central mountain chain late Saturday night into early Sunday morning
bringing a gusty southeast to east canyon gap wind to Santa Fe,
eastern Albuquerque, and Carrizozo. Potential for max wind gusts of
around 30 to 35 mph across eastern Albuquerque and Carrizozo. Sunday
will be colder across all of eastern NM with highs in the upper 30s
to mid 40s, around 15 degrees below average. Highs across central
and western NM will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, right around
average for late November.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1207 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

A shortwave trough over the northern Great Basin Sunday dives
southeast across the central and southern Rockies Sunday evening
through midday Monday before exiting into the central Great Plains
Monday evening. Still looking at some light to briefly moderate snow
across the northern and west central high terrain after sunset
Sunday tapering off mid to late Monday morning. Mean snowfall
amounts across the Tusas near the CO border could reach advisory
criteria (5") due to a 3 to 6 hour period of ideal upslope southwest
flow before drier air moves in around sunrise Monday. NBM
probabilities for snowfall amounts to reach advisory criteria in
this zone exist at around 40 to 60%. Generally 1 to 3 inches is
expected across the Jemez and Sangre de Cristo Mountains with a
dusting to 0.5 inches across the Zuni Mountains of west central NM.
Clearing skies midday Monday into Monday afternoon with colder
temperatures across western and central NM. 5 to 10 degrees warmer
than Sunday across east central and southeast NM due to downslope
northwest flow south of the trough axis. A cold Monday night into
Tuesday morning with widespread teens to low 20s for low
temperatures across lower elevations. Angel Fire could dip below 0
deg F. Temperatures rebound closer to normal, especially across
eastern NM, on Tuesday due to downslope westerly flow ahead of the
next upper level trough over the northern Rockies. Some breezy
conditions across the central highlands and east central plains
Tuesday afternoon. Long range guidance shows this trough either
diving south and becoming a closed low over southern NV and CA
(ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and Canadian) or diving southeast over Four Corners
regions and central and southern Rockies as a positively tilted open
trough (GFS and AI-GFS) late Wednesday into Thursday. The cluster
analysis heavily favors the closed low scenario (70 to 75%) with
only 25-30% favoring the open wave trough scenario. With this, some
precipitation chances will favor western and central NM Wednesday
night into Thursday with drier conditions Friday as the upper low
spins either just west the coast of southern CA and northern Baja CA
or over the northern Gulf of CA. Temperatures will be near to as
much as 10 degrees below average mid to late in the work week.
Thursday will be on the cooler side of this range due to Pacific and
backdoor front segments moving through the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM MST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the TAF period.
LLWS has begun to develop as the boundary layer decouple and NW
winds aloft increase through the night. A shield of low clouds and
fog has developed in W TX and may dry to push into far SE NM
tonight, but its progress will be stunted thanks to downsloping
northwest winds. A backdoor front will push into the NE Plains
around 12Z and create gusty north to northeast winds in the
eastern plains throughout the afternoon as it pushes south. The
front will eventually push through the gaps of the central
mountain chain after 03Z tomorrow evening, creating a modest east
(southeast) wind at KABQ (KSAF) with gusts of 20 to 35 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1207 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

No critical fire weather conditions are expected through mid next
week. Temperatures dropping across northeast New Mexico today behind
a potent backdoor front with good ventilation across the central and
southern high terrain and eastern plains. Peak north wind gusts of
30 to 40 mph near the Texas border. Colder across all of eastern New
Mexico Sunday with temperatures around 15 degrees below normal. Very
good to excellent ventilation across the west central high terrain.
A storm system quickly sweeps the northern part of the state Sunday
night into Monday morning bringing some light snow to the northern
and west central high terrain. Good to very good ventilation with
excellent ventilation across the central highlands Monday afternoon
in the wake of this disturbance. Temperatures warm up closer to
normal Tuesday cooling down to slightly below normal come Thursday
with generally poor ventilation for most areas. Some low
precipitation chances return to western and central areas late
Wednesday into Thursday from another storm system diving south into
southern California Nevada and Arizona.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  28  53  30 /   0   0   0  40
Dulce...........................  50  22  48  22 /   0   5   5  60
Cuba............................  48  22  45  25 /   0   0   0  40
Gallup..........................  51  21  53  22 /   0   0   0  30
El Morro........................  51  26  53  27 /   0   0   0  20
Grants..........................  55  20  56  25 /   0   0   0  20
Quemado.........................  54  29  57  29 /   0   0   0   5
Magdalena.......................  56  29  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  54  28  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  63  28  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  67  30  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  44  21  42  20 /   0   0   5  60
Los Alamos......................  49  25  43  29 /   0   0   0  40
Pecos...........................  51  18  45  25 /   0   0   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  46  23  43  25 /   0   0   0  50
Red River.......................  39  18  35  20 /   0   0   0  40
Angel Fire......................  45  11  41  15 /   0   0   0  30
Taos............................  49  19  45  24 /   0   0   0  40
Mora............................  51  16  46  23 /   0   0   0  20
Espanola........................  55  24  50  27 /   0   0   0  30
Santa Fe........................  50  25  45  30 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  51  24  46  27 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  30  51  36 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  29  53  34 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  60  26  55  33 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  58  27  52  34 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  59  23  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  58  28  53  33 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  59  23  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  59  26  53  33 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  59  24  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  53  29  49  34 /   0   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  58  27  52  33 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  62  30  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  22  47  30 /   0   0   0  10
Tijeras.........................  51  23  48  31 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  53  19  50  28 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  55  15  52  25 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  51  17  45  26 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  54  19  49  30 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  55  21  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  59  29  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  57  24  49  33 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  36  12  33  15 /   0   0   0  10
Raton...........................  42  13  38  15 /   0   0   0  20
Springer........................  49  16  41  17 /   0   0   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  51  17  41  22 /   0   0   0  10
Clayton.........................  42  17  37  21 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  47  15  37  20 /   0   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  57  20  45  22 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  57  20  41  22 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  54  19  44  22 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  59  21  41  22 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  62  21  43  21 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  62  21  44  20 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69  29  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  67  24  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  67  21  52  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...16