Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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949 FXUS65 KABQ 240559 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1059 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1050 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 - Minor impacts from winter weather mainly across the higher terrain of western and northern NM will continue thru the evening. - Low visibility from fog will be likely along west facing slopes of western and northern NM tonight into Monday morning. - Those with travel plans for the late weekend and early week after Thanksgiving will want to stay updated with the latest weather forecasts and statements. Be prepared to alter travel routes or plans, as there are increasing indications a potent storm system will bring travel impacts across the Desert Southwest, including New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1202 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 The 564dm H5 low centered near the Four Corners and over Navajo Nation continues to fill with a dryslot bringing clearing skies into portions of central NM and more widespread across east-central and southeastern NM this hour. The main line of convective activity associated with the area of upper level divergence and vorticity maximum has pushed into the TX Panhandle. Precipitation from here on out will be associated with the core of the H5 low over western, northern, and central NM in the form of valley rain and mountain snow showers. Much of the snow above 8,500` has fallen already with another few inches likely b/w now and thru the rest of the evening. Satellite imagery and ground-based webcams are showing light snow reaching as low as Las Vegas, NM which is already quickly melting. As such, the Winter Weather Advisories for the northern mountains will remain in-tact with an expiration at midnight tonight. Drier conditions aloft will fill in behind the H5 low as it exits over the high plains of eastern CO and western KS Monday morning. Low-level moisture will stick around however with indications still present that light surface west-northwesterly winds will help anchor low clouds and fog along west-facing slopes of western and northern NM tonight into Monday morning. This will clear by Monday afternoon with breezy to locally windy northwesterlies developing. Peak gusts of 30 to 40 mph will favor areas along the central highlands from Clines Corners to Vaughn. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1202 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 Tuesday begins the long term period with numerical model guidance continuing to resolve a closed low traversing the northern Great Plains sending down a surface cold front into eastern NM. This will pause the warming trend there knocking high temperatures back 5F to 10F relative to Monday into the upper 40s and 50s. A stray light shower may try to develop along the Raton Pass and Johnson/Bartlett Mesas Tuesday afternoon where there is some easterly upslope flow, but this is a very low chance (~10%). The surface front advances further south and west across eastern NM and toward the east slopes of the central mountain chain Wednesday. High temperatures trend lower relative to Tuesday for areas south of U.S. Hwy 60. Areas along and west of the Rio Grande Valley will see little to no effect from this surface cold front. Very pleasant weather is in-store for Thanksgiving Thursday and Friday as a shortwave ridge of high pressure slides west to east across the state. Warmer temperatures and light winds Thursday with some breezy conditions Friday afternoon favored. Southwesterlies begin to increase Saturday ahead of an amplifying polar jet pattern over the northern Pacific. There remains remarkably good agreement among ensemble model suites that this amplification of the polar jet will result in a deepening troughing pattern bringing widespread winter weather over the western CONUS. Run-to-run consistency continues to feature a fair amount of variety in terms of strength and track of this next winter storm system. But current trends favor deteriorating winter conditions arriving into the region of AZ/NM Saturday night into Sunday with continued winter weather persisting into early next week. Travelers would be prudent to stay up-to-date on the latest forecast trends and have alternate routes and options to take. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 IFR conditions are forecast to develop later tonight, around 09-10Z, at KFMN and KGUP, with moderate confidence. IR satellite imagery shows higher clouds gradually thinning/clearing north of KFMN. Once this clearing moves in, light westerly upslope flow should lead to low clouds and fog/mist. Guidance has been inconsistent with density of fog, as well as preferred locations and whether stratus will lower all the way to the surface; otherwise, confidence would have been higher. Elsewhere, VFR is expected to prevail with light-moderate breezes as the weekend storm system continues to move away to the northeast, over CO. KSAF could see a brief MVFR deck overnight, but confidence is low- moderate. Short-term guidance has been consistently developing LLWS over KLVS tonight, once surface winds slacken to below 10 knots, so have included it in the TAF. Less confident on any duration of LLWS at KTCC and KROW. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025 No fire weather concerns thru the next seven days. Winter weather clears out of the area tonight with increasing northwesterlies bringing gusty winds to the central highlands Monday afternoon. However, humidity stays well above any fire weather thresholds. Winds abate for the rest of the week until Friday with a dry cold front bringing a 5-10 degree drop Tuesday and Wednesday across eastern NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 34 52 29 50 / 5 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 26 48 21 49 / 30 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 31 49 23 49 / 20 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 25 52 20 52 / 10 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 33 49 25 52 / 30 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 27 55 22 54 / 20 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 32 51 25 53 / 20 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 33 56 31 55 / 5 0 0 0 Datil........................... 31 51 27 54 / 20 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 25 60 23 62 / 5 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 28 64 26 68 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 23 44 17 45 / 40 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 32 48 29 49 / 20 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 29 52 28 53 / 10 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 28 46 23 46 / 30 0 0 0 Red River....................... 22 39 17 39 / 30 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 18 46 12 46 / 30 0 0 0 Taos............................ 27 49 21 49 / 30 0 0 0 Mora............................ 27 53 25 52 / 10 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 30 56 24 55 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 33 49 31 50 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 30 52 26 52 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 38 55 36 55 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 35 58 31 57 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 33 61 29 60 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 36 58 33 57 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 31 59 26 58 / 10 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 36 58 30 58 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 28 59 25 59 / 10 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 35 59 31 59 / 10 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 31 59 26 59 / 10 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 37 53 33 53 / 10 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 36 57 31 57 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 36 63 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 33 50 30 50 / 10 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 34 51 31 52 / 10 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 32 53 28 53 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 29 54 25 54 / 5 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 31 50 28 51 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 31 53 28 54 / 10 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 31 54 28 55 / 5 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 33 56 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 33 53 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 28 51 26 44 / 5 0 0 0 Raton........................... 25 56 23 51 / 10 0 0 0 Springer........................ 25 58 22 54 / 10 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 28 56 26 52 / 5 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 36 58 33 49 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 30 58 28 52 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 33 64 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 37 61 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 35 66 29 57 / 5 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 38 65 34 60 / 5 0 0 0 Portales........................ 38 66 33 62 / 5 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 36 65 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 38 68 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 35 64 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 29 64 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for NMZ210- 211-213-214. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...53