005
FXUS65 KABQ 011745 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1045 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1039 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Accumulating snow is expected Wednesday through Thursday
  morning, with the northern mountains and adjacent highlands
  seeing a few inches.

- Travel may become difficult through mountain passes and along
  Interstates 25 and 40 due to falling and accumulating snow
  Wednesday and Thursday.

- A strong west and southwest crosswind will impact travel over
  east central areas on Tuesday afternoon, then a potentially
  stronger west and northwest crosswind will impact travel over
  east central and southeast areas on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1219 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

High res models depict accumulating snow continuing in the
mountains near the CO border until 9 AM or so this morning, as an
upper level trough gradually exits east of NM. Then, sunny skies
will prevail areawide. Although high temperatures will warm
several degrees above Sunday`s readings on the eastern plains,
today will still be cool with temperatures in most locations a
few to around 13 degrees below 1991-2020 averages.

In between systems on Tuesday, high temperatures will climb a few
to 16 degrees above today`s readings, varying from 5 degrees below
30-year averages near the Four Corners to as much as 7 degrees
above the average on parts of the east central and northeast
plains. West and southwest wind gusts from 25 to around 40 mph
mph are expected along the central mountain chain and eastward
down the east central highlands and plains on Tuesday afternoon,
thanks to a lee side surface trough south of a 1000 mb low
pressure system over the northeast corner of NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1219 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

A deeper upper level trough and Pacific cold front will cross
from the northwest with wintry precipitation beginning near the CO
border Wednesday afternoon, then becoming widespread Wednesday
night through Thursday morning. Precip will taper off rapidly
Thursday afternoon as the upper level trough exits east of NM.
Ensemble members are generally trending away from scenarios where
the upper trough forms a closed upper level low pressure system
near the Four Corners before crossing, but a minority of members
still indicate this will happen. As a result, the snow forecast is
a little lighter than what we were forecasting yesterday for the
storm system. However, winter travel impacts are still likely with
a 30-70% chance of at least 2 inches of snow accumulation at
lower elevations along the I-25 corridor from Raton to Glorieta
Pass, and a 30-60% chance along the I-40 corridor from Tijeras
Canyon to Santa Rosa. A few inches of snow are also likely in the
mountains north of Highway 60 (with chances only around 10-20% in
mountains farther south), except for a 30-40% chance of over 5
inches of snow in the northwest mountains, and 40-80% in the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains. At this time, the greatest snow
amounts look to reach around 8 inches on the highest peaks of the
Sangres. Ahead of the upper level trough a backdoor cold front
will dive southwestward through the eastern plains Tuesday night,
then through gaps in the central mountain chain Wednesday night
with modestly gusty east canyon wind gusts up to around 30 mph in
Albuquerque and Santa Fe. High temperatures look to bottom out in
most places on Thursday with readings around 5-20 degrees below
1991-2020 averages.

In the wake of the storm system, dry and gusty northwest flow is
forecast over the forecast area Friday through the weekend. At
this time, the strongest gusts look to occur on Saturday when a
lee-side surface trough will briefly strengthen as an upper level
trough exiting the central Rockies clips northeast NM. Gusts in
the 25-45 mph range look increasingly likely on Saturday along and
east of the central mountain chain. Temperatures will also trend
warmer Friday through the weekend, except for some cooler readings
on Sunday behind a backdoor cold front over northeast and far
east central areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Clearing skies continue through the late morning and early afternoon
hours with breezy northwest winds (gusts 20-30kts) along a general
line from KFMN to KAEG to KCQC to KSRR. Winds taper off after 00z
west of the central mountain chain. Upper level westerlies increase
along the ridgetops of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains after 06z,
raising the potential for mountain wave activity along and east of
the mountains. Concurrently, gusts across eastern NM from KCQC to
KTCC begin to increase past 12z, with a good chance of 35kt gusts
near KCQC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1219 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Minimum humidities are forecast to stay above 15 percent for the
next seven days, except for a few pockets of near 15 percent
humidity on Tuesday afternoon over northeast and east central
areas. These will result in locally critical fire weather
conditions on Tuesday afternoon, due to the breezy to windy
conditions that are also expected. As mentioned previously,
stronger winds are forecast across the east on Saturday, but
minimum humidities should be in the 30-45 percent range by then.
Otherwise, areas of poor ventilation are forecast each day until
Thursday and Friday, when poor ventilation looks to become
widespread. The stronger winds in the east on Saturday will result
in ventilation improvement, then vent rates will come up in many
western locations as well on Sunday while pockets of poor
ventilation persist near the CO border.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  43  22  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  42  10  43  16 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  39  16  43  21 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  43  14  47  21 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  42  19  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  46  14  52  21 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  44  19  52  22 /   5   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  47  25  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  44  22  52  24 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  54  20  58  23 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  60  25  62  26 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  37  10  39  15 /  10   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  41  22  44  26 /   5   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  43  19  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  37  17  42  21 /  30   0   0   0
Red River.......................  29  12  35  15 /  30   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  34   2  41   9 /  10   0   0   0
Taos............................  41  12  45  17 /  10   0   0   0
Mora............................  42  16  50  21 /   5   0   0   0
Espanola........................  47  18  50  20 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  41  23  45  26 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  44  19  46  23 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  47  29  48  32 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  50  24  50  28 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  52  22  52  26 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  49  25  51  28 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  53  19  53  23 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  49  25  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  52  19  52  22 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  51  23  52  26 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  52  21  52  24 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  44  27  47  30 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  49  25  51  28 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  57  25  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  42  23  45  26 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  43  24  45  27 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  44  20  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  12  50  19 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  42  19  45  24 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  45  21  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  46  22  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  51  27  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  46  26  50  34 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  34  14  50  19 /  10   0   0   0
Raton...........................  41  11  53  19 /  20   0   0   0
Springer........................  43  12  57  20 /   5   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  43  17  53  23 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  40  19  56  27 /   5   0   0   0
Roy.............................  43  16  57  25 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  48  16  61  26 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  46  22  56  28 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  46  18  62  26 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  48  19  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  50  18  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  50  16  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  58  22  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  56  23  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  57  21  61  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...77