Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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487 FXUS65 KABQ 091749 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1049 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1044 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 - Northwest wind gusts from 35 to 50 mph will produce difficult travel conditions for large and high-profile vehicles in the area around Clines Corners, Vaughn, Corona, and Mountainair today. - Dry and unseasonably warm weather will persist through at least the next seven days around central and northern New Mexico. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 Issued a Wind Advisory for the Central Highlands, including I-40 through Clines Corners, where northwest wind gusts up to 55 mph are now forecast to continue until 5 PM. Also, increased cloud cover over central and eastern areas in accordance with recent satellite imagery and model trends. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1230 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 Confidence is not high enough to issue a Wind Advisory for parts of eastern NM today given disagreements amongst deterministic and probabilistic guidance. An update may be needed by sunrise if models trend windier or better agreement occurs. The latest NBM and REFS have probs for wind gusts >45 mph at less than 20% while the HREF favors much higher probs more aligned with the MOS suite (except the LAV which is still below the advisory criteria of 50 mph for Clines Corners). A 700mb wind max near 40kt is expected to move south today with the core focused from near Farmington to ABQ and Ruidoso. These stronger winds aloft may not align with the tighter surface pressure gradient along the east slopes of the central mt chain and central highlands. A more certain impact today will be downslope flow warming temps 10-15F above normal for eastern NM. The stronger mid level winds will taper off tonight while a weak backdoor cold front moves south across eastern NM. This front will help to trend high temps cooler Wednesday across eastern NM. Surface winds are shown veering around quickly to the southwest by the afternoon over eastern NM and may dampen the effect of the cooling. There is a large 25th-75th percentile spread in the NBM high temps Wednesday over parts of eastern NM as a result of these veering winds. Southwest winds will continue Wednesday night over eastern NM with lows remaining 10-15F above normal. Chilly temps are still expected over northern and western NM with inversion patterns in place. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 1230 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 West to northwest downslope flow into eastern NM Thursday allows temps to warm up to 20F above normal. A few locales will be near record highs. Another weak backdoor cold front is poised to enter eastern NM Thursday night with slight cooling Friday, mainly for northeast NM. Surface winds then veer out of the southwest again Saturday morning with potential for more warming Saturday. Yet another backdoor cold front may enter eastern NM late Saturday or Saturday night. The strength and timing of this front is still in question but there is potential for it to be a stronger push west to the central mt chain. NBM temperature spreads are high once again during this period across the east. All the while, central and western NM will remain very mild for mid December with light winds and mostly clear skies thru Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Northwest winds will be gusty in many locations today, then wind speeds will weaken with sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025 A perturbation in northwest flow aloft will move across the southern Rockies today with locally windy conditions from near Clines Corners to Vaughn and Corona. Marginally critical humidity in the 15 to 20% range may lead to elevated fire weather conditions for a few hours this afternoon. However, ERCs are near to below the 50th percentile with little risk for large fire growth. The main impacts to burning operations thru the weekend will be poor ventilation areawide with only pockets of fair at times. Min RH will stay above 20% for the vast majority of the area with good to excellent recoveries. Temps will be above normal most days with daily fluctuations over eastern NM in the wake of a couple backdoor cold fronts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 49 27 51 27 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 48 18 53 20 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 49 26 52 27 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 56 23 58 24 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 54 29 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 59 26 59 26 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 55 28 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 59 36 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 56 32 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 66 27 69 29 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 69 31 74 32 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 45 22 51 25 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 50 32 51 34 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 56 33 54 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 48 28 51 30 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 41 25 45 27 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 47 19 50 19 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 50 22 53 23 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 56 31 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 56 28 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 51 35 53 35 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 52 30 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 55 37 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 57 34 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 59 33 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 59 34 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 58 28 61 27 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 59 32 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 58 29 61 28 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 60 33 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 58 30 60 29 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 54 35 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 59 34 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 61 34 64 33 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 33 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 51 33 54 33 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 53 31 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 54 29 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 50 31 52 32 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 55 32 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 54 31 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 59 36 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 57 39 56 38 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 59 29 50 32 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 61 28 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 64 29 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 61 32 54 32 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 67 34 53 37 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 64 31 52 31 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 67 31 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 64 34 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 69 32 59 32 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 67 37 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 67 36 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 68 36 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 70 38 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 68 41 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 69 40 59 34 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ223. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...44