586
FXUS65 KABQ 151148 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
548 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 542 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025

- After mostly dry weather again today, showers and thunderstorms
  return over southern, central, and eastern parts of the forecast
  area Tuesday and Wednesday, then continue east of the central
  mountain chain Wednesday night.

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible east of
  the central mountain chain Tuesday afternoon and evening, then
  scattered severe thunderstorms look increasingly likely along
  and east of the central mountain chain Wednesday afternoon and
  evening.

- Some thunderstorms on the northeast plains will be capable of
  producing locally heavy rainfall Wednesday afternoon and
  evening, with a few spots potentially accumulating near 2 inches
  of rain.

- There will be a minor risk of burn scar flash flooding on
  Tuesday and a minor to moderate risk on Wednesday.

- Isolated to widely scattered and light rain showers and
  thunderstorms are forecast mainly along and east of the central
  mountain chain on Thursday. Then over more of northern and
  central New Mexico Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 103 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025

A return flow of low level moisture will spread areas of low
clouds and some patchy fog over southeast areas as far north as
the Caprock early this morning. Dry weather is then expected this
afternoon with lots of sunshine. A stray shower or thunderstorm
may drift eastward off the Sacramento Mountains and over southwest
Chaves County in the afternoon, with other isolated convection
over the southwest mountains. High temperatures will peak around 3
degrees either side of 30-year averages.

Tonight and Tuesday, an upper level trough sweeping southeastward
through the northern and central Rockies will draw the moist low
level return flow further north over the southeast half of the
forecast area. This will probably cause low clouds and patchy fog
to become more widespread over eastern areas during the late night
and early morning hours. It will also enable scattered to
isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop southeast of a line
from Dulce to Zuni, and northwest of a line from Roswell to
Clovis. A shortwave trough rotating through the broader longwave
trough digging over the western US will probably keep showers and
thunderstorms going late Tuesday night over northeast and east
central areas, potentially reaching as far south as Highway 60.
Shear and instability profiles with the upper trough impinging on
the moist low level return flow will probably enable isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon, with
the greatest risk along and east of the central mountain chain
mainly from I-40 northward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 103 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms should increase on Wednesday
as the aforementioned upper level trough passes southeastward
through the northern and eastern halves of the forecast area,
while a moist backdoor front drops south and southwestward through
the eastern plains. There will be a good chance for scattered
severe storms along and east of the central mountain chain
Wednesday afternoon and evening mainly along and north of I-40
where the greatest shear and instability looks to set up. In
addition, there will be a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over
the northeast plains, where rain amounts around 0.50-1.0" are
expected with locally higher amounts potentially around 2 inches.

In the wake of the upper level trough on Thursday, drier air
aloft will spread southeastward over the forecast area, but enough
moisture will be in place from Wednesday afternoon and night`s
backdoor cold front fro isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop mainly along and east of the central
mountain chain during the afternoon and evening.

Friday and Saturday, a disturbance ejecting from the CA coast will
ride over a mid-level ridge of high pressure centered over
northwest Mexico, spreading showers and thunderstorms over the
forecast area from the west. It now also looks like a rich return
flow of low level moisture will also spread northward over the
southeast and east central plains enabling isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop there as well. At this time, Friday looks
to be the more robust day of convection with some locations
receiving over a tenth of an inch of rainfall mainly in the
southwest and west central mountains. Storm coverage and rainfall
intensity looks to decrease on Saturday some, then more-so as
moisture tries to recycle on Sunday.

After cool temperatures behind the mid week backdoor cold front,
highs will rebound gradually at the end of the week reaching near
to several degrees above average across the forecast area by
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Patchy fog has developed in some locations along the eastern
border of the forecast area early this morning. It is most
widespread around KCAO, where the visibility will probably drop
below airport minimums at times until 16Z or so. Patchy fog and low
clouds will probably return to more of the eastern plains late
tonight night until mid morning Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025

After continued warming and dry weather today, scattered to
isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop east of the
continental divide Tuesday, then become more numerous Wednesday,
and persist over eastern areas as an upper level trough clips
northeast NM in northwest flow aloft Wednesday night. Pacific and
backdoor cold fronts look to produce a potentially gusty north or
northeast wind shift Wednesday afternoon and night as they move
into northern and eastern parts of the forecast area. There will
be a downtick in the coverage of storms and rainfall intensity on
Thursday. Precip chances will then increase from the west again
Friday, before moderating Saturday and again Sunday. Areas of
sub-15% humidity are forecast west central and northwest on
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  82  53  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  79  39  80  39 /   0   5  10   5
Cuba............................  77  49  78  48 /   0   5  20  10
Gallup..........................  79  46  81  47 /   0   0   5   0
El Morro........................  77  49  78  49 /   0   5  20  10
Grants..........................  82  49  82  49 /   5   5  20  10
Quemado.........................  79  51  80  51 /   5   5  20  10
Magdalena.......................  79  56  78  55 /   5   5  40  20
Datil...........................  77  51  76  50 /   5  10  40  20
Reserve.........................  85  50  86  51 /  10  10  30  20
Glenwood........................  88  55  88  55 /   5  10  40  20
Chama...........................  73  42  73  41 /   0   5  20  10
Los Alamos......................  75  53  75  52 /   0   5  20  20
Pecos...........................  76  49  76  49 /   0   5  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  74  48  76  46 /   0   0  20  20
Red River.......................  66  40  66  38 /   0   0  20  20
Angel Fire......................  70  34  70  34 /   0   0  20  20
Taos............................  78  44  78  45 /   0   0  20  20
Mora............................  74  44  73  44 /   0   5  30  20
Espanola........................  82  49  82  51 /   0   5  20  20
Santa Fe........................  77  53  77  52 /   0   0  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  79  49  81  50 /   0   0  20  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  82  61  83  60 /   0   5  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  84  57  85  58 /   0   5  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  87  56  87  57 /   0   5  20  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  84  58  86  58 /   0   5  10  10
Belen...........................  86  54  86  55 /   0   5  20  10
Bernalillo......................  85  56  86  57 /   0   5  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  85  54  86  55 /   0   5  20  10
Corrales........................  86  57  87  57 /   0   5  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  85  55  86  56 /   0   5  20  10
Placitas........................  81  56  81  56 /   0   5  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  84  57  86  57 /   0   5  10  10
Socorro.........................  87  59  88  59 /   0   5  30  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  77  52  78  52 /   0   5  30  20
Tijeras.........................  79  54  79  53 /   0   5  30  20
Edgewood........................  79  48  80  49 /   0   5  30  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  81  46  81  47 /   0   5  30  20
Clines Corners..................  76  51  76  50 /   0   5  30  20
Mountainair.....................  79  51  79  51 /   5   5  30  20
Gran Quivira....................  78  51  78  52 /   5   5  40  20
Carrizozo.......................  82  56  81  57 /   5   5  40  20
Ruidoso.........................  75  51  73  52 /  10  10  50  10
Capulin.........................  77  49  77  45 /   0   0  20  40
Raton...........................  79  46  79  45 /   0   0  20  30
Springer........................  82  46  81  47 /   0   5  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  77  49  76  48 /   0   5  30  20
Clayton.........................  84  56  83  54 /   0   0  10  40
Roy.............................  80  53  80  50 /   0   5  20  30
Conchas.........................  86  57  86  57 /   0   5  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  82  54  81  54 /   0   5  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  84  57  83  57 /   0   5  10  30
Clovis..........................  86  61  86  60 /   5   5  10  20
Portales........................  87  61  86  60 /  10   5  10  10
Fort Sumner.....................  86  59  85  59 /   0   5  20  20
Roswell.........................  89  62  87  61 /   5   5   5   5
Picacho.........................  84  55  83  55 /  10   5  30   5
Elk.............................  82  52  80  52 /  20  10  40   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...44