Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
318 FXUS65 KABQ 070718 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 118 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms return to areas of central and eastern NM today. Locally heavy rainfall will threaten flash flooding over low laying and poorly drained areas, including the Ruidoso area burn scars this afternoon and evening. - There is a marginal risk for a few thunderstorms to become strong to severe producing frequent lightning, hail, and strong wind gusts. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A frontal boundary has advanced thru the gaps of the central mountain chain tonight bringing east canyon winds gusting 15 to 30mph thru Santa Fe and Albuquerque. Cooler temperatures and higher moisture highlighted by Td`s in the 40s and 50s lay in its way across eastern NM. Low stratus with splotches of patchy fog and mist also lay across parts of northeastern NM which will be slow to erode this morning. All of this underlays a synoptic troughing pattern over the western CONUS bringing southwesterly shear aloft over NM. HiRes CAMs are now biting on showers and thunderstorms favoring initiation along the leading edge of this cooler and more moist airmass along the south-central mountains and portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. Modest SBCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg alongside stronger bulk shear of 40-50kts will allow for a few cells to become strong to severe supporting the SPC`s marginal risk thru central NM this afternoon. The cluster of initial storm cells moving northeastward off the south-central mountains will look to fizzle out over parts of eastern NM before the cluster of convection over the middle Rio Grande Valley is favored to drift southeastward becoming outflow dominant riding against the grain into surface southeasterly flow. A slight risk for excessive rainfall has been introduced to the central highlands southward to the Ruidoso area burn scars where two rounds of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible this afternoon and evening. Widespread 0.10" to 0.50" will favor this central swath of NM with localized amounts up to 2.00" possible where the heaviest rains occur. A Flash Flood Watch will be issued for the Ruidoso area burn scars. Showers will be slow to dissipate across eastern and central NM heading into Wednesday morning. Moisture advection advances a bit further west reaching the AZ border. Given the central portions of NM should be worked over well from Tuesday`s activity, instability will favor convective initiation along the Continental Divide Wednesday afternoon. Another marginal risk for excessive rainfall remains in this area and the Rio Grande Valley where storms will be favored to go Wednesday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 An area of high pressure builds in from the TX Big Bend area Thursday, shunting northerly advection of sub-tropical moisture into AZ and the Four Corners area. Convective activity will shift to this area as a result. Numerical model guidance continues to trend into better agreement that an upper level trough over the PacNW will continue to stream remnant moisture from Hurricane Priscilla into the Desert Southwest, mainly AZ and the Four Corners region. Precipitation chances steadily shift west to east over the forecast area as the upper level trough moves west over the western CONUS, breaking down the ridge over TX and southeastern NM. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 A frontal boundary has pushed thru the gaps of the central mountain chain bringing east canyon winds thru KSAF and KABQ tonight. Gusts of 20 to 30kts can be expected to persist well thru the overnight period into Wednesday morning lessening closer to sunrise. Wind directions at KAEG in particular will be difficult and amds may be necessary as winds have wrapped around the northern edge of the Sandia Mts and northerly to northeasterly direction at KAEG still looks favored to begin there at some point. These northerly winds will compete against the easterlies pushing thru Tijeras Canyon and eddies are likely to develop over portions of the northern ABQ metro area tonight thru Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, IFR/MVFR ceilings are spreading across northeastern NM and will expand into east-central NM and the central highlands tonight. These lower ceilings are likely to persist thru much of the day Tuesday. Sporadic shower and isolated thunderstorm activity is also likely to continue over parts of eastern NM tonight into early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the main period for showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Sandia/Manzanos and south-central mountains Tuesday afternoon spreading across the Rio Grande Valley late afternoon and early evening threatening localized MVFR conditions to KABQ/KAEG. This activity will track eastward over the central highlands and over eastern NM toward KCVN and KROW Tuesday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 115 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 No fire weather concerns through the next seven days. Cooler temperatures and higher moisture will be entrenched across eastern NM today and Wednesday. Otherwise, prevailing winds and humidity will remain notably outside critical fire weather thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 79 52 79 55 / 0 10 10 10 Dulce........................... 76 41 70 44 / 5 30 40 30 Cuba............................ 72 46 68 47 / 30 30 60 40 Gallup.......................... 79 46 77 49 / 0 5 20 20 El Morro........................ 75 48 71 48 / 20 20 50 30 Grants.......................... 74 47 72 48 / 30 30 60 40 Quemado......................... 79 49 74 49 / 30 10 40 30 Magdalena....................... 74 52 70 52 / 60 40 50 30 Datil........................... 73 48 69 48 / 40 30 60 40 Reserve......................... 83 48 77 49 / 10 10 40 30 Glenwood........................ 87 55 80 54 / 10 10 30 30 Chama........................... 69 41 64 42 / 10 30 50 30 Los Alamos...................... 67 50 66 51 / 40 40 60 30 Pecos........................... 62 46 65 47 / 20 50 50 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 44 66 46 / 20 20 30 20 Red River....................... 60 38 58 39 / 20 20 30 10 Angel Fire...................... 63 34 63 34 / 30 20 30 10 Taos............................ 71 45 68 46 / 20 20 20 20 Mora............................ 61 42 66 42 / 30 40 50 20 Espanola........................ 75 50 72 50 / 30 40 50 30 Santa Fe........................ 67 50 66 50 / 20 50 50 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 70 49 69 49 / 30 50 50 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 75 56 72 57 / 60 60 50 40 Albuquerque Heights............. 78 55 75 56 / 60 50 40 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 80 54 76 55 / 60 50 40 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 78 55 75 55 / 60 50 40 40 Belen........................... 81 53 78 54 / 70 50 40 40 Bernalillo...................... 79 54 75 54 / 50 50 40 40 Bosque Farms.................... 80 52 77 52 / 70 50 40 40 Corrales........................ 79 54 75 54 / 50 50 40 40 Los Lunas....................... 80 52 77 53 / 70 50 40 40 Placitas........................ 74 53 71 54 / 50 60 50 40 Rio Rancho...................... 79 54 74 55 / 50 50 40 40 Socorro......................... 83 57 78 57 / 60 40 40 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 67 49 67 50 / 60 60 50 40 Tijeras......................... 70 51 69 52 / 60 60 50 40 Edgewood........................ 67 49 69 48 / 60 60 50 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 67 47 70 45 / 60 60 50 30 Clines Corners.................. 59 46 65 48 / 60 70 50 30 Mountainair..................... 69 49 70 49 / 70 60 50 40 Gran Quivira.................... 70 49 70 48 / 70 60 50 30 Carrizozo....................... 74 54 72 53 / 50 50 40 20 Ruidoso......................... 63 49 65 48 / 60 60 40 20 Capulin......................... 56 46 67 47 / 30 20 10 5 Raton........................... 58 47 70 46 / 30 20 10 5 Springer........................ 60 48 72 46 / 30 20 10 5 Las Vegas....................... 54 46 65 46 / 40 50 40 20 Clayton......................... 55 50 70 55 / 30 30 10 0 Roy............................. 56 49 66 51 / 40 40 20 5 Conchas......................... 61 53 73 55 / 40 50 30 5 Santa Rosa...................... 61 52 70 53 / 40 60 50 20 Tucumcari....................... 61 53 74 54 / 40 50 40 0 Clovis.......................... 65 55 74 56 / 50 70 30 0 Portales........................ 66 55 74 56 / 50 60 30 0 Fort Sumner..................... 66 55 72 56 / 50 80 40 5 Roswell......................... 72 59 77 59 / 40 70 30 5 Picacho......................... 69 54 71 54 / 50 60 40 10 Elk............................. 69 51 68 51 / 50 50 40 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for NMZ226. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24