Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
963 FXUS65 KABQ 041129 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 529 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 524 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - South to southwest wind gusts 35 to 50 mph this afternoon increase will create hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles. - A season ending freeze is possible for the Upper Rio Grande Valley Sunday morning, focusing in areas from Taos northward into CO. - Isolated showers and storms will develop across northwestern to north-central New Mexico this morning through this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 100 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 An early Fall 563dm H5 storm system is centered just north of Las Vegas, NV tonight, spinning up increasing southerly to southwesterly winds over the Desert Southwest, including New Mexico. An area of showers and thunderstorms remains embedded within the right exit region of the jetmax rounding the southern periphery of the H5 low over northwestern NM and southwestern CO. This area will steadily progress eastward over portions of San Juan and Rio Arriba Counties this morning. Precipitation associated with this feature will lose cohesion and begin to break apart as the main jetmax and trough axis cross the Sangre de Cristo`s and exit over the high plains this evening. Light showers and sprinkles could extend as far south as Santa Fe and Albuquerque briefly this afternoon with the passage of the Pacific Cold front. Meanwhile, stronger winds aloft will reach the surface across much of northern and central NM this morning bringing widespread gusts of 20-30 mph by this afternoon. Areas along the northeastern highlands from Las Vegas to Raton to Clayton will see the strongest wind gusts of 35-50 mph where the surface pressure gradient will be sharpest. A Wind Advisory will be hoisted where there is greatest confidence for 45-50mph wind gusts at Raton, and may be expanded to include Las Vegas, NM and Clayton, NM. A sharp drop in temperatures and moisture advects in behind the cold front across western, central, and northern NM tonight through Sunday morning. A 10F to 20F drop in MinTs is forecast Sunday morning relative to this morning with lows falling into the 30s near freezing across western and northern NM with 40s in the Rio Grande Valley from Espanola to Albuquerque and the Estancia Valley. 50s will hold onto lower elevations of the Rio Grande Valley by Socorro and across the eastern plains toward TX. In fact, a Freeze Watch will be laid out for the Upper Rio Grande Valley where there is moderate confidence for freezing temperatures 30F to 32F from Taos northward to the CO border. A pleasant Fall day looks to take hold Sunday afternoon with moderate southwesterly breezes. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 100 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Monday begins the long term period with a steady switch to a more unstable weather pattern. Southerly flow looks to advect northward increased low-level moisture from the Gulf. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will favor a surface convergence area where this southerly flow meets an oncoming cold front backing into northeastern NM. Southwesterly shear with height will help organize some of this uplift to thunderstorm activity somewhere from northeastern to east-central to central NM Monday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm activity will likely wane Monday night into Tuesday morning, reinvigorated Tuesday afternoon and advancing westward toward the Continental Divide. Numerical model guidance shows PWATs increasing to ~1.00" at ABQ which would threaten daily records for early October. The repeated rounds of rain alongside the anomalously high moisture content supports the marginal excessive rainfall outlook by WPC for Tuesday. This weather pattern looks to persist Wednesday with an area of high pressure taking hold Thursday trending moisture and precipitation chances down. Attention Friday and beyond will turn to whether or not the remnants of an EPAC TC will work its way into the Desert Southwest, or remain OTS (out-to- sea). There has been considerable run-to-run and model-to model inconsistency regarding this, and thus there is considerably low forecast certainty for next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Increasing southerly to southwesterly winds resulting in widespread LLWS impacts to terminals this morning. An area of showers has progressed eastward over the CO San Juans and NM Tusas Mts this morning. LLWS concerns abate as stronger winds aloft reach the surface at many locations b/w 16Z to 18Z this morning, peaking in strength with widespread gusts of 20kts to 30kts in the afternoon. Wind prone locations from KLVS to KRTN will likely see peak gusts of 35kts to 40kts this afternoon. Have also continued mention of PROB30s for short duration showers and stronger gusty winds with the passage of the Pacific Cold front into the Rio Grande Valley from KSAF to KABQ. Prevailing wind speeds fall past 01Z to 03Z this evening for many western and central terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 100 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Moderate to strong southerly to southwesterly winds today will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions, mainly focused over the west-central mountains and northeastern highlands and plains. However, given the recent moisture to end monsoon season, fuels do not look to be very receptive to fire spread. Modest southerly to southwesterly breezes forecast Sunday, with lighter prevailing winds Monday and beyond. Increased moisture content arrives next week bringing increased shower and thunderstorm activity each afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday before trending drier Thursday and Friday. Another uptick in moisture and precipitation chances is favored again by next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 74 39 72 42 / 20 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 70 30 70 33 / 70 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 73 38 71 40 / 30 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 71 32 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 71 34 70 40 / 5 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 76 35 75 38 / 10 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 75 37 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 76 46 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 73 39 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 79 42 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 84 48 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 62 30 65 35 / 70 5 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 70 43 69 47 / 30 5 0 0 Pecos........................... 72 41 70 43 / 10 10 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 69 36 67 40 / 40 10 0 0 Red River....................... 60 31 59 35 / 30 10 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 66 29 65 28 / 20 10 0 0 Taos............................ 73 32 71 38 / 30 10 0 0 Mora............................ 69 38 70 38 / 20 10 0 0 Espanola........................ 78 41 76 43 / 30 10 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 73 43 70 46 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 76 41 74 43 / 10 10 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 79 50 77 54 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 81 50 80 53 / 10 5 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 84 47 82 51 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 81 49 79 51 / 10 5 0 0 Belen........................... 84 45 83 49 / 5 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 83 47 80 49 / 10 5 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 83 44 81 48 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 84 48 80 49 / 10 5 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 83 45 81 49 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 78 46 75 50 / 10 5 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 82 48 80 50 / 10 5 0 0 Socorro......................... 86 52 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 74 43 72 47 / 10 5 0 0 Tijeras......................... 76 45 73 49 / 10 5 0 0 Edgewood........................ 76 41 75 45 / 5 5 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 78 39 77 41 / 5 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 73 44 72 45 / 5 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 76 44 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 76 46 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 79 55 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 72 51 71 50 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 71 42 72 39 / 0 10 0 5 Raton........................... 75 40 75 40 / 5 10 0 0 Springer........................ 77 41 78 40 / 5 10 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 73 42 73 41 / 5 10 0 0 Clayton......................... 81 53 81 49 / 0 0 0 5 Roy............................. 76 47 77 46 / 5 10 0 0 Conchas......................... 84 54 85 51 / 5 5 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 80 52 81 51 / 5 5 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 84 57 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 86 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 86 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 84 57 85 57 / 0 5 0 0 Roswell......................... 88 59 90 60 / 0 5 0 0 Picacho......................... 84 54 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 80 52 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for NMZ216. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ227-228. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24