Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
649 FXUS65 KABQ 071847 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1247 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - A flash flood watch is in effect today from 12PM to 6AM Wednesday for portions of central and eastern New Mexico. - Showers and thunderstorms return to areas of central and eastern NM today. Locally heavy rainfall will threaten flash flooding over low laying and poorly drained areas, including the Ruidoso area burn scars this afternoon and evening. - There is a marginal risk for a few thunderstorms to become strong to severe producing frequent lightning, hail, and strong wind gusts. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1204 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Today`s weather pattern continues to be dominated by southwest flow aloft over New Mexico. A broad trough over the midwest back towards the desert southwest is in the process of shearing out which is maintaining the southwest flow aloft. Once the trough shears out tonight into tomorrow southwest flow should weaken with a ridge building over Texas and a trough over the Pacific NW. At the surface yesterday`s backdoor front has stalled from the Continental Divide/RGV back SE towards the Sacramento mountains. Moisture behind the boundary has increased and will be the driver of thunderstorm activity this afternoon and tonight. Instability should increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon with daytime heating supporting a marginal risk of severe storms. Eastern NM still has a fair amount of low stratus but this cloud cover should erode with time and mixing. There is also a solid 40-50kts of 0-6km shear to support storm organization. Given the marginal instability storm modes are likely to be pulse storms in nature but those updrafts that can become more robust should be able to tap the shear for better organization leading to the hail and wind threats. High resolution CAMs point to storms initiating in the afternoon over the RGV and then the Sacramento Mtns. The progress points to a few storms impacting the Ruidoso areas in the early afternoon before moving east. More robust storms look to develop in the RGV particularly Valencia co but if these storms are displaced at all then ABQ metro could get some stronger storms. ABQ metro is not out of it by a long shot but the probabilities are tilted towards weaker storms with less inflow. Storms over C NM then develop eastward and potentially SE as outflows start new storms through the overnight. CAMs have a solid signal for heavy rainfall over Torrance Co spreading towards N Chaves Co. Latest QPF forecast reflect that evolution and given the latest HREF guidance the flash flood watch was expanded in area to cover the heavy rainfall potential from these clusters of storms. HREF even has activity going until 12-18Z Wednesday in SE NM with moderate rainfall. Right now it is challenging to quantify how much flooding will occur from this activity or if the storms really will achieve high rain rates but the ingredients are there to support storms with heavy rainfall. Wednesday looks like another active day with convection across much of New Mexico but a lot of that activity will hinge on the stability of the atmosphere and what gets worked over by previous convection. This could lead to more robust updrafts over W NM and the Continental Divide than eastern NM. HREF seems to have a signal for this kind of evolution and any activity over Cibola Co could push into the ABQ metro late Wednesday evening. This also means for a lower chance of storms in the Ruidoso area for burn scar flooding. That said monitoring the remnant activity over E NM for new development will be the key for forecasting any impacts in Ruidoso. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1204 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 For the end of the week and then the weekend the overall synoptic pattern looks pretty well supported by ensemble guidance. A deeper upper level low develops over the Pacific NW or just off the coast with a strong ridge over Texas. And yes then there is Hurricane Priscilla in the eastern Pacific. Given the pattern Priscilla is primed to journey north and then northeast into the Baja and eventually AZ. W NM is in line to see some moisture from this system but still pretty low confidence on how moisture will evolve. Forecast will keep thunderstorm chances progressing from west to east across NM for the weekend and into early next week. It is hard to say which of any one day will be more impactful than the other at this point. If there is at time period it is more likely to be late Saturday into Sunday as the trough axis with a sheared out Priscilla move across AZ and the Four Corners. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings persist in E NM with low stratus in place behind the backdoor front that pushed through. These clouds should erode with ceilings lifting as a result. The main concern this afternoon will be thunderstorm activity especially for KABQ/KAEG this afternoon. Then storms becoming more an issue for KSAF/KLVS and KTCC. KROW will not be left out but looking at a later time for storms. TAFs cover that progression but very low confidence in TAFs after 06Z tonight as storms progress. KABQ and KAEG could be dealing with fog/low clouds 12-15Z tomorrow with IFR/MVFR conditions back entrenched over E NM. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1204 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Overall the threat for critical fire weather conditions is quite low across much of New Mexico. The only area that may come close is NE New Mexico on Saturday as SW winds increase from the Highlands to the NE plains. Min RH values will be in the 30s however and ERCs below the 50th percentile. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 53 79 56 77 / 5 20 20 20 Dulce........................... 40 70 42 74 / 30 40 40 30 Cuba............................ 47 70 47 70 / 30 60 40 30 Gallup.......................... 48 78 48 73 / 0 30 20 30 El Morro........................ 48 72 47 70 / 20 60 40 40 Grants.......................... 47 73 47 72 / 30 70 40 40 Quemado......................... 49 75 49 73 / 10 50 30 30 Magdalena....................... 52 71 53 71 / 40 60 30 30 Datil........................... 48 69 48 68 / 30 60 40 30 Reserve......................... 48 79 49 78 / 10 60 30 30 Glenwood........................ 54 83 53 82 / 10 50 30 20 Chama........................... 40 64 42 69 / 30 50 30 30 Los Alamos...................... 50 67 50 69 / 40 70 40 20 Pecos........................... 46 66 47 70 / 60 60 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 67 46 72 / 20 30 20 20 Red River....................... 37 59 39 63 / 20 30 10 20 Angel Fire...................... 32 64 33 67 / 20 30 10 10 Taos............................ 44 69 45 73 / 20 30 20 10 Mora............................ 41 67 42 70 / 40 50 20 20 Espanola........................ 50 74 50 76 / 40 60 30 20 Santa Fe........................ 50 67 51 70 / 50 60 30 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 49 70 49 73 / 50 60 30 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 57 75 57 75 / 60 60 40 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 55 77 55 78 / 60 60 40 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 54 79 55 80 / 60 60 40 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 55 77 56 77 / 50 60 40 10 Belen........................... 53 79 52 80 / 60 50 30 10 Bernalillo...................... 54 77 54 78 / 50 60 40 10 Bosque Farms.................... 52 78 52 78 / 60 50 40 10 Corrales........................ 54 78 55 78 / 50 60 40 10 Los Lunas....................... 53 78 53 78 / 60 50 40 10 Placitas........................ 53 72 54 73 / 60 60 40 20 Rio Rancho...................... 54 77 55 77 / 50 60 40 10 Socorro......................... 56 80 56 80 / 50 40 30 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 68 49 70 / 70 70 40 20 Tijeras......................... 51 70 51 72 / 70 60 40 20 Edgewood........................ 48 70 47 73 / 70 60 40 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 47 71 45 73 / 70 60 30 10 Clines Corners.................. 47 64 47 68 / 80 60 30 10 Mountainair..................... 48 71 48 73 / 70 50 30 10 Gran Quivira.................... 48 71 47 73 / 60 50 30 10 Carrizozo....................... 55 74 53 75 / 50 40 20 10 Ruidoso......................... 50 64 48 67 / 60 40 20 10 Capulin......................... 46 67 47 73 / 10 10 5 5 Raton........................... 48 71 46 75 / 10 10 5 5 Springer........................ 48 72 47 76 / 20 10 5 5 Las Vegas....................... 46 64 47 69 / 50 50 20 10 Clayton......................... 51 71 54 78 / 20 10 0 0 Roy............................. 50 67 51 73 / 30 30 5 5 Conchas......................... 53 72 54 78 / 60 40 10 5 Santa Rosa...................... 52 68 52 74 / 80 50 20 5 Tucumcari....................... 52 72 53 79 / 60 50 5 0 Clovis.......................... 55 75 57 80 / 60 40 0 0 Portales........................ 56 76 57 80 / 60 30 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 55 72 55 78 / 70 40 10 5 Roswell......................... 59 77 59 80 / 60 30 5 5 Picacho......................... 55 72 54 76 / 60 30 10 5 Elk............................. 52 70 50 73 / 50 30 10 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for NMZ221>224-226-233-237>239. && $$ SHORT TERM...39 LONG TERM....39 AVIATION...39