404
FXUS65 KABQ 182019
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
119 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 110 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

- A moist Pacific storm system will bring cooler and unsettled
  weather tonight through Thursday night, with high chances for
  mountain snow and valley rain.

- Accumulating snow will be favored above 9000 feet Wednesday
  night through Thursday night.

- Another Pacific storm system may bring more precipitation to the
  region this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 110 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

High clouds will gradually lower through the day. High
temperatures today will be near normal across the west to around
10 degrees above normal across the east. Meanwhile, an upper low
diving southward along the coast of CA will continue to do so
today. While the high clouds are an indication of high level
moisture advecting into the area ahead of the system, a slug of
mid level sub-tropical moisture will advect northward across NM
this evening through Wednesday. This moisture, top-down moistening
and weak disturbances in southwest flow ahead of the upper low
will bring rain chances to portions of NM. Rain will be favored
across southwest and south central NM this evening and overnight,
spreading north and east through the day Wednesday. Most areas
will see rainfall amounts less than one quarter inch through
Wednesday afternoon. Snow levels will be quite high to begin with,
generally between 9000-9500 feet. A few rumbles of thunder cannot
be ruled out Wednesday afternoon, mainly across southwest and
south central areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 110 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

The elongated upper level low will shift eastward late Wednesday
and Wednesday night across AZ/MX. On Thursday and Thursday night,
the low will fill and a negatively tilted upper level trough will
cross over NM from southwest to northeast. With forcing
increasing and PWATs approaching record highs for the date,
precipitation will become steadier, somewhat heavier, and more
widespread for the Wednesday night through Thursday night
timeframe. H7 temps only fall to around -1.5 to -2C, so snow
levels will remain quite high, generally at or above 8000 feet,
though much of the accumulation will be above 9000 feet. Between 6
and 8 inches seem likely across these areas, but some of the
highest peaks may pick up close to one foot. At minimum, Winter
Weather Advisories will be needed. At lower elevations between one
quarter and one inch of rainfall appears likely, though graupel
may mix in at times. A slight chance (~20%) of lightning exists
for most areas on Thursday.

Dry air moves overhead in the wake of the system for Friday, but
another system won`t be far behind. Yet another closed low will
will dive toward SoCal Friday, then shift eastward near the AZ/MX
border Saturday, before lifting northeastward or east-
northeastward across NM on Sunday and Monday. This is a similar
track to the Wed/Thu system, though this Sun/Mon system looks to
remain a closed low as it crosses NM. H7 temps look to be similar
as well, perhaps 1 degC cooler, thus snow levels near 8500 feet or
so seem like a good bet attm. Light to moderate snow
accumulations will be possible across the high peaks. This system
will shift eastward over the Panhandles late Monday.

With successive storm systems, high temperatures will remain near
or just below mid to late November normals through early next
week. However, with the expected cloud cover, low temperatures
will remain near to much above normal. Thus, odds are increasing
that the ABQ Sunport will have the latest first freeze on record
this year (previous record is November 22nd).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours, though cigs
will gradually lower with time. There is a medium chance that patchy
MVFR cigs will develop Wednesday morning after 09Z across south
central areas as rain moves into the area. Rainfall and high
elevation snow will continue to spread north and east through the
day on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
week. Two storm systems will bring widespread precipitation to the
area, first on Wed/Thu and the second on Sun/Mon. Areas above 9000
feet will see a few to several inches of snow accumulation with
each system, while rain will prevail at lower elevations.
After today, high temperatures will be near to below normal for
most areas over the next week, but low temperatures will remain at
or above normal. Ventilation rates will deteriorate Thursday and
beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  36  59  40  53 /  10   5  40  60
Dulce...........................  29  55  27  50 /  20  20  50  80
Cuba............................  33  54  33  48 /  20  20  70  80
Gallup..........................  28  56  33  47 /  20  10  60  60
El Morro........................  33  53  36  44 /  20  20  80  80
Grants..........................  31  56  34  48 /  20  30  80  80
Quemado.........................  34  56  34  46 /  20  30  80  70
Magdalena.......................  41  55  39  48 /  20  40  90  80
Datil...........................  35  53  35  45 /  20  40  80  80
Reserve.........................  32  58  30  49 /  50  60  90  80
Glenwood........................  37  62  32  54 /  60  70  90  80
Chama...........................  28  49  28  46 /  20  20  60  90
Los Alamos......................  40  51  38  45 /  20  20  70  90
Pecos...........................  36  53  35  48 /  20  30  70  90
Cerro/Questa....................  32  50  31  48 /   5  10  40  80
Red River.......................  28  43  26  40 /   5  10  40  90
Angel Fire......................  24  50  24  43 /  10  10  40  80
Taos............................  31  54  32  51 /  10  10  40  80
Mora............................  33  56  30  47 /  10  20  50  90
Espanola........................  35  59  35  54 /  20  20  60  90
Santa Fe........................  39  54  38  48 /  20  20  70  90
Santa Fe Airport................  37  56  37  50 /  20  20  70  80
Albuquerque Foothills...........  41  58  44  52 /  20  30  80  80
Albuquerque Heights.............  42  61  43  53 /  20  20  80  80
Albuquerque Valley..............  39  63  42  55 /  20  20  80  80
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  43  60  42  53 /  20  20  80  80
Belen...........................  40  63  40  55 /  20  20  80  80
Bernalillo......................  41  61  42  54 /  20  30  80  80
Bosque Farms....................  38  62  38  54 /  20  20  80  80
Corrales........................  40  61  41  55 /  20  20  80  80
Los Lunas.......................  39  62  38  54 /  20  20  80  80
Placitas........................  40  57  43  50 /  20  30  80  80
Rio Rancho......................  43  59  43  54 /  20  20  80  80
Socorro.........................  45  63  43  57 /  30  30  90  80
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  40  54  39  48 /  20  30  80  90
Tijeras.........................  42  55  40  49 /  20  30  80  90
Edgewood........................  40  56  38  50 /  20  30  80  90
Moriarty/Estancia...............  34  58  32  52 /  20  30  70  90
Clines Corners..................  37  54  35  47 /  20  30  70  90
Mountainair.....................  39  56  38  50 /  30  30  80  90
Gran Quivira....................  38  56  37  49 /  40  40  80  90
Carrizozo.......................  43  60  41  52 /  50  40  80  90
Ruidoso.........................  40  54  37  46 /  50  40  70  90
Capulin.........................  34  58  33  47 /   0   5  10  80
Raton...........................  32  62  32  50 /   0   5  20  80
Springer........................  33  63  32  50 /   0   5  20  80
Las Vegas.......................  37  57  35  49 /  10  20  50  90
Clayton.........................  41  67  41  54 /   0   5  10  80
Roy.............................  40  62  37  51 /   5  20  20  90
Conchas.........................  42  68  40  57 /  10  20  30  90
Santa Rosa......................  44  64  41  54 /  20  40  40  90
Tucumcari.......................  43  70  41  59 /   5  20  30  90
Clovis..........................  45  69  45  62 /   5  10  30  90
Portales........................  44  70  44  63 /   5  10  40  90
Fort Sumner.....................  43  66  41  59 /  10  30  40  90
Roswell.........................  48  70  47  62 /  20  20  50  80
Picacho.........................  45  67  42  60 /  30  20  60  80
Elk.............................  41  63  38  56 /  40  30  60  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34