Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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645 FXUS65 KABQ 251902 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1202 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1053 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 - Warming is forecast through the end of the work week, with temperatures rising above average. - Those with travel plans after Thanksgiving, mainly from late Sunday into early week, should stay updated with the latest weather forecasts and statements. Be prepared to alter travel routes or plans, due to potential for a storm system to bring winter travel impacts across the Desert Southwest, including New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1053 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail through Wednesday with increasing pressure heights as an upper level ridge expands into the Desert Southwest. A weak backdoor cold front is currently moving southwest across eastern NM, with occasional gusts to between 25-35mph behind the boundary. This front is forecast to lose it`s westward momentum this evening and will result in only a light east canyon/gap wind into the RGV overnight. Patches of fog and freezing fog may redevelop overnight across western NM, but forecast confidence is too low to include in the deterministic forecast at this time. Southwest breezes will pick-up late Wednesday morning across eastern NM due to a deepening lee side trough. Otherwise, Wednesday will pleasant, with high temperatures near average east and slightly above average west. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1053 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 Dry northwest flow aloft will become more westerly by Friday, with fair weather conditions persisting and temperatures rising above average across the entire forecast area. The base of an upper level trough moving east across the Rockies is forecast to graze northern NM on Saturday, bringing stronger westerly winds to the peaks of the northern mountains and potential for a few snow showers. A strong backdoor cold front will drop south down the eastern plains Saturday as the aforementioned trough ejects east out of the Rockies. The backdoor cold front will progress southwest across the area Sunday, chilling the lower boundary layer in advance of another upper level trough dropping southeast out of the Pacific NW. There has been poor model run-to-run consistency with the evolution of this trough into an upper low and associated track, but the 12Z operational runs are comparable with the timing of the upper level trough/low passage through NM Monday night. There is still plenty of spread among the ensemble members, but there is a noteworthy risk for winter travel impacts across the region from late Sunday through Monday night with accumulating snow possibly reaching the lower elevations. This is an important consideration for travel late in the holiday weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1053 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 Areas of IFR conditions in low stratus continue across western NM late this morning, but the latest satellite imagery shows these areas diminishing. All areas should be VFR by 20-21Z this afternoon. Patches of low stratus may redevelop overnight across western NM, but forecast confidence is too low to include in TAFs at this time. Forecast confidence was sufficiently high to include a TEMPO group for MVFR cigs at KLVS overnight. A weak backdoor cold front is progressing down the eastern plains of NM and will result in a winds shift at KROW this afternoon. Gusts to between 20-25kts will be common behind the frontal boundary this afternoon. The front is forecast to lose it`s westward momentum this evening and will create only light east canyon/gap winds at KABQ and KSAF overnight. Otherwise, winds will be light. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1053 AM MST Tue Nov 25 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days. A slow warming trend is forecast this week that will take temperatures above average areawide by Friday. A cold front will move through Saturday, improving vent rates from what will be poor/fair most areas through Friday to mostly fair/good. An upper level trough/low will impact the region late Sunday through Monday night, with higher humidity, chances for wetting precipitation and colder conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 27 52 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 17 51 18 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 22 51 23 55 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 20 55 20 57 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 27 55 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 21 58 21 60 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 24 59 26 63 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 30 56 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 27 57 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 24 64 26 67 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 28 66 29 70 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 17 46 21 52 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 28 49 31 53 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 22 51 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 24 48 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 18 41 21 47 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 11 46 11 52 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 19 51 20 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 19 54 26 55 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 22 55 23 59 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 28 50 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 25 51 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 34 54 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 29 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 27 58 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 29 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 24 57 23 59 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 28 57 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 23 57 23 60 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 27 58 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 25 56 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 31 53 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 29 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 30 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 27 50 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 28 51 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 23 53 26 57 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 17 55 21 59 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 23 51 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 25 53 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 25 54 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 30 56 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 28 54 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 19 51 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 20 54 23 54 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 21 56 22 56 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 23 55 27 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 24 52 30 54 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 24 54 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 27 63 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 26 60 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 26 59 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 29 56 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 27 57 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 29 57 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 35 58 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 30 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 27 64 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...11