049
FXUS65 KABQ 302323 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
523 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 510 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

- After drier and warmer weather today through Friday, rainfall
  chances will increase Saturday. Gusty south to southwest winds
  will also increase Friday and Saturday, creating hazardous
  crosswinds for high-profile vehicles.

- Wetter than normal weather is favored for central and northern
  New Mexico next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Satellite and radar imagery early this afternoon show widespread
cumulus and a few spot showers over NM. A weak upper level trough
approaching from the west has spread better lift over the area but
with a much drier upper level airmass. The 18Z KABQ sounding shows a
thick inversion above 600mb with the better moisture below. Any of
the showers that develop today will be low-topped with very little
rainfall and localized gusty winds. Clouds will linger over the area
thru this evening then taper off from west to east overnight. There
is a low chance (<15%) that fog will form over parts of the area by
sunrise Wednesday, mainly in the Estancia Valley and around Angel
Fire. Drier air spreading into the southern Rockies tonight in the
wake of the trough will allow min temps to trend cooler across the
north and west.

Wednesday and Thursday will be spectacular early fall days as an
upper level ridge builds over northern MX. Max temps will trend a
few degrees warmer each day with readings around 5F above normal by
Thursday. West/southwest winds Wednesday will be mostly light then
become more southwesterly Thursday and increase into the 10-20 mph
range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

The upper level ridge over northern MX will break down Friday as a
~565dm H5 low approaches from the west. Forecast models are in good
agreement with the overall strength and placement of the wave Friday
over southern CA. The bulk of the disagreement is related to the
timing as it ejects across the southern Rockies Friday night and
Saturday. In whatever scenario, forecast confidence is moderate to
high that winds will increase over NM both Friday and Saturday. A
weak tap of subtropical moisture ahead of the upper wave will also
allow clouds to increase over western NM Friday. These clouds may
spread into central NM Friday night and keep the atmosphere mixed
enough for slight breezes to continue overnight. Winds may then
increase quickly after sunrise Saturday as 700-500mb layer winds
near 40KT spread into central and western NM ahead of a Pacific
cold front. A consensus of MOS guidance with NBM75th percentile
winds favor south/southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts of
25 to 40 mph across the region. A few spots along the high plains
of eastern NM may see gusts exceed 40 mph Saturday afternoon.
There may also be showers and storms along and ahead of the
Pacific cold front late Saturday morning thru Saturday evening.
The latest NBM median QPF is between 0.10" and 0.20" across the
northwest high terrain with lower values along the central mt
chain.

Colder temps are in store Sunday morning in the wake of the cold
front. Winds are likely to trend lighter Saturday night with more
typical terrain dominated drainage winds for Sunday morning. A few
valley locales across northern and western NM may see their first
freeze of the season. The rest of Sunday looks splendid with drier
air, light winds, and clear skies.

Forecast confidence drops off significantly Sunday night and Monday.
The overall message however is that an active weather pattern may
return to the region for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 510 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

VFR prevails as prevailing southerly to southwesterlies taper off
this evening. Light and variable winds yield to breezy prevailing
southerly to southwesterly winds again Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

There are no critical fire weather conditions expected for at least
the next 7 days. A ridge of high pressure will build over northern
MX today thru Thursday before breaking down Friday ahead of an upper
level trough over the weekend. Temps will trend warmer each day with
minimum humidity trending toward 15-20% by Friday. Southwest winds
will become breezier each afternoon then peak Friday and Saturday
with widespread gusts of 25 to 40 mph likely. A few localized
spots across eastern NM and in the high terrain may see gusts
exceed 40 mph. The upper level trough will pass over NM Saturday
with a few showers and storms possible, especially north of I-40
and west of the central mt chain. Cooler temps and lighter winds
are expected on Sunday. Forecast confidence deteriorates quickly
by Monday but the overall message may be for unsettled weather to
continue next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  49  77  47  81 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  35  74  35  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  43  73  44  77 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  39  75  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  43  73  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  43  77  42  80 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  43  76  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  50  76  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  43  74  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  44  81  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  49  85  49  88 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  38  69  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  49  72  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  46  72  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  43  72  44  75 /   5   0   0   0
Red River.......................  31  63  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  27  68  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  40  75  40  78 /   5   0   0   0
Mora............................  41  72  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  46  79  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  50  73  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  47  76  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  57  78  58  82 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  80  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  53  82  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  81  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  51  82  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  53  82  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  50  82  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  54  82  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  53  82  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  53  77  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  55  81  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  55  84  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  49  74  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  50  78  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  44  78  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  77  40  81 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  47  74  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  47  76  47  79 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  47  76  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  53  79  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  50  72  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  44  74  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  41  77  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  42  79  42  82 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  45  74  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  53  83  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  47  79  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  53  86  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  51  82  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  53  85  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  56  87  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  56  87  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  53  85  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  56  87  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  52  83  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  49  81  49  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...24