Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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046 FXUS65 KABQ 250001 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 501 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 440 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 - Breezy to locally windy northwesterlies will bring crosswinds to area highways this afternoon. - Those with travel plans after Thanksgiving, including this weekend and early week, will want to stay updated with the latest weather forecasts and statements. Be prepared to alter travel routes or plans, as there are increasing indications a potent storm system will bring travel impacts across the Desert Southwest, including New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1201 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 Conditions have cleared out aloft with low-level moisture and cold hanging around portions of west-central and northern NM this morning. This has allowed the deck of stratus and mist and fog to persist in these areas of the state, notably across San Juan County and portions of the Upper Rio Grande Valley b/w Taos and the CO state line. Steadily increasing northwesterly flow aloft has already begin, and will steadily spread lower to elevations this afternoon. Breezy to locally windy conditions will focus in areas along and east of the Rio Grande Valley. A shortwave trough moving over eastern MT/WY will try to close off to a low over the northern Great Plains Tuesday. This system will send down a cold front backing south and west into northeastern NM. CAA behind the cold front will knock high temperatures back 5F to 10F mainly along and norther of U.S. Hwy 60 thru eastern NM Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1201 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 The dry cold front advances further south and westward Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing the 5F to 10F temperature drop to areas along and south of U.S. Hwy 60 with a more moderated cooldown along the highlands. The frontal boundary washes out thru the day Wednesday with warming and calm conditions persisting thru Thursday and Friday. Saturday begins to see increasing southwesterly to westerly winds ahead of a more active weather pattern moving into the western CONUS. Forecast confidence continues to lower for the Sunday into early next week period as numerical model guidance and their associated ensemble means have diverged considerably over the past 24 hours with the forecast strength and track of this next winter system. A wide range of scenarios for NM ranging from little winter precipitation to a full on winter storm exists. The current La Nina setup over the equatorial Pacific gives greater weight to scenarios with a storm track further north bringing a minor to moderate winter system to the region as opposed to a stronger storm system. Those with post-Thanksgiving plans or travel during this time should remain prudent in staying up-to-date on the latest forecast trends. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 440 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 The main aviation weather hazard tonight through Tuesday morning will be low clouds and patchy fog producing MVFR and IFR conditions west of the Tusas Mountains, impacting Chama, Dulce, and for a shorter but still significant duration Farmington. We have only moderate confidence in the timing of the low clouds forecast in the KFMN TAF, since models are notoriously poor at forecasting low clouds there in this weather pattern. There is a roughly 30 percent chance that low clouds could return to KFMN as early as 05Z this evening, and a 40 percent chance they may linger through much of Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, there will be passing thin and high cirrus clouds on Tuesday over northern and central parts of the forecast area. In addition, a backdoor cold front will produce a northeasterly wind shift on the eastern plains on Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025 No fire weather concerns through the next 7 days. Breezy to locally windy conditions exist thru this afternoon. A cold front knocks high temperatures back 5-10F across eastern NM Tuesday and Wednesday. Lighter winds and warmer temperatures return Thursday and Friday. Westerly to southwesterly winds begin to increase Saturday ahead of a more active cooler and wetter weather pattern Sunday into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 29 51 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 20 49 15 50 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 24 49 20 51 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 20 52 18 55 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 25 51 25 55 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 23 54 20 58 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 26 52 24 59 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 32 55 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 28 53 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 23 62 22 64 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 23 67 24 67 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 18 45 16 46 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 30 49 27 50 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 29 52 22 51 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 24 47 23 47 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 18 39 17 40 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 9 46 10 46 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 21 50 18 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 25 52 19 54 / 0 5 0 0 Espanola........................ 25 55 21 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 31 50 26 50 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 27 52 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 36 55 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 32 57 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 28 60 23 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 33 57 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 24 58 19 57 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 30 58 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 23 59 18 57 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 31 59 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 24 59 20 57 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 33 53 30 53 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 32 57 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 33 61 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 30 50 26 50 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 31 52 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 28 53 22 53 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 24 55 17 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 28 51 22 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 28 54 23 53 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 29 55 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 32 59 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 34 55 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 26 43 19 50 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 24 51 19 53 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 22 53 21 56 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 26 52 22 55 / 0 5 0 0 Clayton......................... 34 49 25 52 / 0 5 0 0 Roy............................. 29 52 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 29 58 27 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 32 56 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 29 57 26 58 / 0 5 0 0 Clovis.......................... 34 60 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 32 62 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 33 61 28 56 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 37 67 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 37 65 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 31 65 24 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24