Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
008 FXUS65 KABQ 161946 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 100 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1255 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Isolated showers and storms are forecast across far eastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening. - A Freeze Warning is in effect for several northern and western locations for late tonight into Friday morning. - Dry conditions will prevail from Friday through the weekend with a slow warming trend. - Windy conditions are forecast Monday, especially across northeast and east central NM where there is a low chance (20-30%) for gusts up to 40 mph. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1255 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 New Mexico enters a much drier weather pattern over the next few days as a mature upper level low circulates near WY. The dry air being brought into the region by this low can be seen very well on water vapor satellite imagery. A boundary of dry and moist air can be seen across far eastern NM, and this is the likely initiation point of any showers and thunderstorms that have a slight chance of developing this afternoon and evening. SBCAPE values are approaching 2000 J/kg per the 18z mesoanalysis with 20-30kts of effective layer shear. Any storm that does form has the low chance of becoming strong with gusts up to 45-50mph and dropping small hail. Any shower or storm that does form should move out of the area after sundown. On the backside of the trough axis moving through, pressure heights will drop, correlating to lower temperatures across much of the region. Clear skies and calm winds also will assist decreasing temperatures with radiational cooling effects. Comparing to last night (Wednesday night), temperatures may be 10 to 20 degrees colder. Several locations are likely to see their first freeze of the season, and thus a Freeze Warning is in effect for several zones. The Upper Rio Grande Valley also very likely will see its first hard freeze of the season as temperatures plummet as low as 20F. Any remaining vegetation should be protected in these areas, as well as exposed plumbing. A secondary baggy shortwave trough looks to form through the longwave WY trough that will continue to push eastward. This baggy shortwave is likely to create another round of breeze conditions across eastern NM as well mixed layers begin to develop in the dry atmosphere. As this shortwave passes, pressure heights will continue to fall and temperatures Friday night will be as if not slightly more chilly for most locations across the state. If the locations in the current Freeze Warning remain above freezing tonight, another batch of Freeze Warning(s) may be needed for Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1255 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Through much of the first half of the long term period, models are in very good agreement on the upper level pattern. The baggy shortwave mentioned in the short term discussion continues to push through Saturday with 700mb winds approaching 35-40kts on the backside. This will likely lead to another breezy morning and afternoon across much of east central NM. After the shortwave pushes through, ridging begins to build in across the state Sunday, beginning to raise temperatures slightly while remaining near average for mid October. However, a backdoor cold front Saturday night will stunt eastern NM from warming up as much as central and western NM. The ridging is short lived as another strong upper level trough begins to dig into western CONUS. The trough is currently forecast to clip northern NM through the day on Monday, but the changing timing and latitude of the trough axis in recent model runs has left uncertainty on how strong winds will get as this trough passes. It still appears most likely that breezy to windy conditions will develop across the general windy areas in NM (east central and northeast NM) Monday afternoon, but remain well below Wind Advisory threshold. A closed low that split off from the strong trough is then likely to make its way eastward towards the state, potentially bringing a return of precipitation to the area, though confidence is currently not very high. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. Southerly wind gusts up to 25-30kts will be possible across eastern NM through the afternoon, with relatively light winds elsewhere. Isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms are possible across far eastern NM this afternoon and evening, with a moderate chance of brief MVFR conditions to any direct terminal hits. Most likely timeframe of storms is 23z-04z, with a low chance for remnant showers afterwards. Rapid cooling tonight will produce drainage winds at terminals near terrain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. Breezy afternoons on Saturday and Monday may bring about spots of elevated fire weather conditions to eastern NM, but fuels are likely to not be as receptive given recent rainfall. High pressure moving over the area late this weekend may deteriorate ventilation rates across the area. Precipitation is also not expected until the middle of next week at the earliest, outside of a stray shower or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 33 61 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 21 61 22 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 30 60 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 24 61 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 31 61 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 27 65 29 68 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 31 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 41 66 39 68 / 0 5 0 0 Datil........................... 35 63 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 33 69 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 38 73 38 78 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 24 55 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 38 60 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 36 61 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 32 59 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 27 51 26 54 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 16 56 19 60 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 27 62 26 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 31 63 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 33 66 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 39 61 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 63 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 44 66 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 42 68 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 40 71 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 42 68 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 40 71 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 40 69 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 38 70 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 40 70 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 40 70 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 42 64 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 41 68 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 45 74 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 38 61 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 40 63 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 33 64 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 31 66 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 36 62 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 37 64 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 36 65 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 45 70 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 43 64 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 34 64 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 32 66 31 70 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 33 69 31 72 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 36 64 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 45 71 44 72 / 20 0 0 0 Roy............................. 39 68 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 42 76 41 77 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 41 71 43 73 / 5 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 47 76 44 76 / 20 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 51 79 49 78 / 20 0 0 0 Portales........................ 51 81 49 79 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 47 77 47 77 / 10 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 52 81 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 47 78 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 44 75 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM MDT Friday for NMZ201-216-217- 222-228-241. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...77