Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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008
FXUS65 KABQ 161946
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
100 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

- Isolated showers and storms are forecast across far eastern New
  Mexico this afternoon and evening.

- A Freeze Warning is in effect for several northern and western
  locations for late tonight into Friday morning.

- Dry conditions will prevail from Friday through the weekend with
  a slow warming trend.

- Windy conditions are forecast Monday, especially across
  northeast and east central NM where there is a low chance
  (20-30%) for gusts up to 40 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

New Mexico enters a much drier weather pattern over the next few
days as a mature upper level low circulates near WY. The dry air
being brought into the region by this low can be seen very well on
water vapor satellite imagery. A boundary of dry and moist air
can be seen across far eastern NM, and this is the likely
initiation point of any showers and thunderstorms that have a
slight chance of developing this afternoon and evening. SBCAPE
values are approaching 2000 J/kg per the 18z mesoanalysis with
20-30kts of effective layer shear. Any storm that does form has
the low chance of becoming strong with gusts up to 45-50mph and
dropping small hail. Any shower or storm that does form should
move out of the area after sundown.

On the backside of the trough axis moving through, pressure heights
will drop, correlating to lower temperatures across much of the
region. Clear skies and calm winds also will assist decreasing
temperatures with radiational cooling effects. Comparing to last
night (Wednesday night), temperatures may be 10 to 20 degrees
colder. Several locations are likely to see their first freeze of
the season, and thus a Freeze Warning is in effect for several
zones. The Upper Rio Grande Valley also very likely will see its
first hard freeze of the season as temperatures plummet as low as
20F. Any remaining vegetation should be protected in these areas, as
well as exposed plumbing.

A secondary baggy shortwave trough looks to form through the
longwave WY trough that will continue to push eastward. This baggy
shortwave is likely to create another round of breeze conditions
across eastern NM as well mixed layers begin to develop in the dry
atmosphere. As this shortwave passes, pressure heights will continue
to fall and temperatures Friday night will be as if not slightly
more chilly for most locations across the state. If the locations
in the current Freeze Warning remain above freezing tonight,
another batch of Freeze Warning(s) may be needed for Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Through much of the first half of the long term period, models are
in very good agreement on the upper level pattern. The baggy
shortwave mentioned in the short term discussion continues to push
through Saturday with 700mb winds approaching 35-40kts on the
backside. This will likely lead to another breezy morning and
afternoon across much of east central NM. After the shortwave pushes
through, ridging begins to build in across the state Sunday,
beginning to raise temperatures slightly while remaining near
average for mid October. However, a backdoor cold front Saturday
night will stunt eastern NM from warming up as much as central and
western NM. The ridging is short lived as another strong upper
level trough begins to dig into western CONUS. The trough is
currently forecast to clip northern NM through the day on Monday,
but the changing timing and latitude of the trough axis in recent
model runs has left uncertainty on how strong winds will get as
this trough passes. It still appears most likely that breezy to
windy conditions will develop across the general windy areas in NM
(east central and northeast NM) Monday afternoon, but remain well
below Wind Advisory threshold. A closed low that split off from
the strong trough is then likely to make its way eastward towards
the state, potentially bringing a return of precipitation to the
area, though confidence is currently not very high.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.
Southerly wind gusts up to 25-30kts will be possible across eastern
NM through the afternoon, with relatively light winds elsewhere.
Isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms are possible across far
eastern NM this afternoon and evening, with a moderate chance of
brief MVFR conditions to any direct terminal hits. Most likely
timeframe of storms is 23z-04z, with a low chance for remnant
showers afterwards. Rapid cooling tonight will produce drainage
winds at terminals near terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days. Breezy afternoons on Saturday and Monday may bring
about spots of elevated fire weather conditions to eastern NM, but
fuels are likely to not be as receptive given recent rainfall. High
pressure moving over the area late this weekend may deteriorate
ventilation rates across the area. Precipitation is also not
expected until the middle of next week at the earliest, outside of a
stray shower or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  33  61  34  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  21  61  22  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  30  60  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  24  61  27  65 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  31  61  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  27  65  29  68 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  31  63  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  41  66  39  68 /   0   5   0   0
Datil...........................  35  63  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  33  69  33  74 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  38  73  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  24  55  24  60 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  38  60  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  36  61  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  32  59  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  27  51  26  54 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  16  56  19  60 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  27  62  26  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  31  63  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  33  66  32  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  39  61  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  35  63  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  44  66  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  42  68  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  40  71  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  42  68  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  40  71  37  72 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  40  69  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  38  70  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  40  70  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  40  70  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  42  64  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  41  68  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  45  74  42  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  38  61  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  40  63  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  33  64  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  31  66  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  36  62  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  37  64  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  36  65  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  45  70  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  43  64  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  34  64  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  32  66  31  70 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  33  69  31  72 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  36  64  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  45  71  44  72 /  20   0   0   0
Roy.............................  39  68  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  42  76  41  77 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  41  71  43  73 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  47  76  44  76 /  20   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  51  79  49  78 /  20   0   0   0
Portales........................  51  81  49  79 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  47  77  47  77 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  52  81  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  47  78  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  44  75  44  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM MDT Friday for NMZ201-216-217-
222-228-241.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77