711
FXUS63 KABR 082044
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
244 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sisseton hills downslope winds (35 to 45 mph) and perhaps blowing
snow issues possible this afternoon/evening.

- Next clipper will most likely (60-90% chance of occurrence) be
preceded by a period of light freezing rain Tuesday morning before
temperatures warm above freezing Tuesday afternoon across northeast
SD/western MN.

- Northwest winds Tuesday afternoon and evening could gust in excess
of 50 to 60 mph across central and north central South Dakota. 45 to
55 mph gusts for the northeast Tuesday evening/overnight.

- By the end of the week, colder air is expected to move in. High
temperatures will be near to just above 0 degrees, with overnight
lows as low as the teens below zero. Wind chill values Friday and
Saturday morning could be as low as -20 to -30 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 244 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Cleared out in central/north central South Dakota, and winds have
shifted to the southwest. Focus for the afternoon remains on the
downslope potential for the Sisseton hills region. Peever has
shifted around to the southwest now as well, though winds remain
weak. HRRR still shows in the 2 to 4 pm timeframe winds will
increase to about 40 mph, lasting through about 8 pm before
weakening. Reissued the SPS for these downslope conditions later
this afternoon.

Focus shift to tonight/Tuesday morning. CAMS and NBM are fairly
confident in regards to moisture moving in, and profiles/NBM
continue to support freezing rain as the predominant p-type before
temperatures warm above freezing. NBM/HREF also showing confidence
in this warming, with just a 1-3 degree range between the 25th/75th
percentiles.

The focus then shifts towards high wind potential. 1/2km winds are
about 50kts, and in BUFKIT low level profiles cool in the cold
advection regime quickly after 21-03Z timeframe, with 60kts at the
top of that mixed layer (about 1km). High wind warning has been
issued in regards to these winds.

But when it comes to wrap around, still not very confident we will
see enough to present a blowing snow hazard. NBM QPF is only a few
hundreds, after midnight post peak wind speeds. In regards to the
blizzard possibility, according to the blowing snow model, we`ll
need to see snowfall rates exceeding 1/2" per hour to get visibility
to 1/4 mile at temperatures at about 30F, which is not a rate we are
seeing from guidance. Additionally, from NAM BUFKIT soundings, cold
advection low level profiles with moisture at the top of the mixed
layer is still warmer than the dendritic growth zone, meaning low
moisture/clouds may be too warm still to generate snow. GFS BUFKIT
profiles do have the snow, but by the time we get wrap around 03-07Z
mixed winds are dropping off rapidly.

The other question is will the snow on the ground be blowable? Rain
and mild temperatures are expected to cap the snow with a crust,
though there is some discussion as to whether 60 mph gusts will be
capable of breaking up this crust. Unfortunately, it remains to be
seen and this is something we will have to watch for tomorrow
evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Wednesday morning starts a rather busy long term period with some
much colder air moving into the region. Along with the colder air,
we have several opportunities for snow this week and potentially
into the weekend. And, along with the colder air and snow, we have
some good strong winds. Quite the combination of weather phenomena
in store.

To start, we have several shots of upper level energy move through
the region this week. The first will be Wednesday morning. This is
behind the Tuesday low. Winds will be diminishing through the early
morning hours and we are left with just much colder air.
Temperatures at 6 PM Tuesday at 850mb are between -1 and 2 degrees
C. By 6 AM Wednesday, 850mb temps have dropped to -12 to -13
degrees along and east of the James River. The second shot of
energy moves in early Thursday morning as another clipper system.
This will bring in some slightly warmer air and also another chance
for some snow. At the moment, we aren`t expecting a lot of snow,
chances for more than an inch are highest over northeastern SD at
between 40 and 60% and chances for more than 2 inches is around 40%.
Some light snow could linger into Friday morning. Friday and
Saturday are expected to be the coldest of the period behind the
Thursday clipper with 850mb temps forecast to be in the upper teens
to 20s below zero C. This translates to surface temps in the single
digits, potentially single digits below zero for far northeastern
SD. Another shortwave moves across on Saturday bringing potential
for another inch or so of snow. High pressure moves through early
Sunday morning ahead of yet another trough reaching down from
Canada. This will bring winds from the south and a shot of WAA to
bring us back up into the teens across most of central and
northeastern SD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 136 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Rapidly becoming VFR conditions for KABR and soon into KATY. Cant
rule out some fog in the KABR area later tonight. Freezing rain
moves into KABR/KATY terminals Tuesday morning. Wind shear will
also impact terminals tomorrow.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
     SDZ006>008-011-018.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 2 AM MST Wednesday for
     SDZ003-015.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ Tuesday to 3 AM CST
     /2 AM MST/ Wednesday for SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-033>037-
     045-048-051.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to noon CST Tuesday for
     SDZ005>008-010-011-018>023.

     High Wind Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
     SDZ019>023.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ039-
     046.

     High Wind Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...07