038
FXUS63 KABR 132124
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
324 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much above normal temperatures in the 60s and 70s on Friday, with
  record highs in jeopardy.

- Cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s this weekend, cooling even
  more into the 30s and 40s early next week.

- Rain/snow chances (30-40%) return Monday/Monday night, but many
  uncertainties in regards to system strength and overall
  precipitation amounts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Main story in the shorter term part of the forecast is the
abnormally mild air over the region Friday and the resultant max
temps and fire danger. Highs today are shaping up to be around
NBM95th, and see no reason to deviate much from that tomorrow. This
places highs in the mid/upper 60s to low/mid 70s. Will be flirting
with, or even setting records for highs on Friday with these types
of readings. Temperatures at 925mb (roughly where we mix to) on
Friday are still +15C to +20C across the CWA, warmest over
central/south central SD. A bit concerned with the lack of mixing,
but there should be just enough to mix down the warmer temps aloft.
Plus, it`s a favorable southwest to west direction across the CWA.
RH forecast Friday afternoon is generally 25 to 40 percent across
the CWA, with the lowest readings over the southwest CWA, where also
the warmest temps and "strongest" winds gusting close to 25 mph will
reside. This does bring high to very high fire danger across the
southwest CWA. Flirting with Red Flag criteria perhaps, with UNR
having issued a warning south of the White River, so something to
watch.

Will then be watching the cold front drop south across the CWA
Friday night, generally between 03Z and 09Z the way things look now.
Hi-res guidance is showing a bit more coverage of light
rain/showers. HREF probs for measurable are as high as 60-80% across
the Dakotas border along and north of Hwy 12. NBM not showing much
in the way of PoPs at all, so decided to lean more towards hi-res
guidance and inserted 20/30 percent chances for precip Friday night,
mainly over the northern CWA. Soundings still rather dry in the
lower levels early on when the best lift is present. We do moisten
up finally after 06Z Saturday, but by then we seem to lose lift.
Didn`t feel comfortable going with a dry forecast, so some small
PoPs were added in the 20 to 30 percent range.

The weekend will feature cooler temperatures, but still around or
even slightly above normal for this time of year as readings top out
in the 40s and 50s. Looking at dry conditions as a surface ridge
axis establishes itself over the region through the entire weekend.
Will have some breezy northwest winds (15-25mph gusts) on Saturday
as this high works on in, with winds going rather light on Sunday
with the high better positioned over us.

Focus then shifts to Monday/Monday night precipitation potential.
Still have mainly 30-40% chances at its highest, mainly over the
southwest CWA. Soundings and near-surface temps would suggest all
rain initially as precip type, with perhaps a mix late Monday night.
Still seeing the trend of GEFS being on the dry side, while ENS is
wetter. GEFS probability for 0.25in or greater precipitation in a 24-
hr period ending at 12Z Tuesday is generally around 10% or less
across the CWA. The wetter ENS shows about 20-35% across the area.
So, still looking like impacts are rather limited with this system
for the time being. Will continue to watch.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with generally
light winds.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...TMT