147
FXUS63 KABR 031725 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1125 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold temperatures today/tonight with highs in the single digits
  and teens, lows in the single digits below and teens below
  zero. Wind chill values from 15 below to 25 below zero east of
  the Missouri River.

- Downslope winds expected in the Coteau region on Thursday, with
  gusts potentially over 40 mph. This may create areas of
  blowing/drifting snow.

- Snow chances (20-40%) return Friday/Saturday and early next week
  as more weather systems have the potential to move through the
  region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Updated discussion for the 18Z TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 536 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 415 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Getting some flurries/very light snow across the eastern CWA early
this morning under the stratus deck moving south over the area. Had
earlier inserted this into the forecast through the early morning
hours. Also seeing another wave moving southeast across western SD,
with snow occurring there as well. This may affect the far southwest
CWA through the early morning hours. There is some progress to the
southward movement of the clearing line as it advances across ND, a
bit more pronounced over eastern ND to where the eastern CWA may
start to see a clearing trend after sunrise. Still a lot of 25-35
mph gusts on the back side of the passing cold front which is well
to our south now. Expecting some residual drifting snow/patchy
blowing snow (where snow has not crusted over) across the Coteau
region through the early morning hours. Although, as the cold
surface high builds in today, expecting winds to go lighter by
afternoon and will put an end to any of that. With the cold air
advection and 925mb temps dropping to between -15C and -18C, looking
for temperatures today stuck in the single digits and teens. There
are some indications in hi-res data (cloud cover/reflectivity/PoPs)
of possible streamers off Lake Oahe with the colder arctic air
overspreading the region. Did add some low PoPs for this in the
Pierre region.

Surface high moves off to the southeast tonight and we quickly go
into a warm air advection pattern with developing south/southwest
winds, more so between 06Z and 12Z Thursday. Before then though,
still expecting a period of light winds and mostly clear skies over
a good portion of the CWA, and temps should fall quickly into the
single digits below and teens below zero for many areas east of the
Missouri River. Continued the trend of going colder than NBM values
for tonight`s lows. Wind chill values continue to range from 15
below to 25 below zero for much of the northern/eastern CWA.

Warm front moves back into the area on Thursday, with strong warm
air advection as 925mb temps rise back around 0C to +2C across the
area by 00Z Friday. Winds turn westerly and should see surface temps
rebound nicely into the 20s and 30s, with warmest readings over
central SD. Will also be watching potential for downslope winds
during the day Thursday as southwest 925mb winds from 30 to 40 knots
develop. Used hi-res wind guidance for Thursday as NBM is likely too
low in the Coteau/downslope region. HREF mean wind gusts show 40-45
mph across the downslope area and went close to this in the
grids/forecast. This did introduce patchy blowing snow to parts of
the eastern CWA on Thursday, but recent mild temps and light rain
followed by a quick freeze may have allowed for some of the snow
pack to be crusted over. Although, feel blowing snow output was well
represented where the least crusting has occurred over the far
eastern CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

As the period begins Thursday night into Friday, broad northwest
flow aloft will continue to be the dominant upper flow feature
across the region. Deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates a
weak shortwave will be working through the region. A clipper type
low pressure system will be tracking southeast from south central
Canada into the western Great Lakes. An associated warm front treks
west to east through the Dakotas into Minnesota. There won`t be much
if any moisture associated with this wave so would only anticipate
flurries or brief snow showers late Thursday into early Friday.
Mainly dry conditions expected the latter half of Friday through the
overnight into early Saturday. The forecast area looks to remain
under the influence of a relatively mild air mass on Friday before
the cold front associated with the aforementioned clipper type low,
tracks north to south and sends another shot of colder air into the
region.

The next upper wave is then progged to push across the region the
first half the upcoming weekend. This wave has the potential to be a
bit more organized and stronger than the first mentioned above. This
wave will generate another clipper type low that is progged to track
northwest to southeast from the Northern High Plains into the
Northern Plains. The exact track of it remains in question and
guidance doesn`t have the best handle on that at this point. The
eventual outcome of this will play a part in who may or may not get
precipitation or to put it another way, who will see more snow
versus others. Nonetheless, a swath of snowfall is expected
somewhere across the Dakotas Saturday into Saturday night. Another
arctic front will pass through the region in the wake of this wave
and set off another round of CAA and colder temperatures to round
out the weekend into early next week. The broad northwest flow aloft
will continue to persist through the first half of next week.
There`s nothing to suggest that we won`t see continued periodic
upper waves to move through the region and deliver more bouts of
on/off precipitation and an up and down fluctuating temperature
pattern between air masses that originate in the Arctic or the
Pacific.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

The stratus layer that was overhead is continuing to decay over
KABR and KATY while the stratus continues over central South
Dakota. MVFR cigs are forecast to continue at KPIR through the
afternoon while the rest of the TAF sites will overall be at VFR. Northerly
surface winds will become light and variable this evening, before
switching to a southerly direction overnight. Winds will be
breezier for Thursday with gusts of 15-20kts at KPIR and KMBG and
gusts of 20-30kts at KABR/KATY with the highest gusts at KATY per
downsloping winds along the eastern slopes of the Sisseton Hills
through the morning and afternoon.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MMM
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...MMM