180
FXUS63 KABR 072024
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
324 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized areas of frost are a possibility early Wednesday
  morning mainly for parts of the James valley into far northeast
  South Dakota and west central Minnesota.

- Southerly winds increase on Wednesday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph,
  especially along and west of the James River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Surface high pressure will move east of the region overnight,
allowing for the pressure gradient to tighten between 06Z and 12Z in
response to the low pressure over the High Plains and northern
Rockies. Not looking at ideal radiational cooling conditions for
much of the CWA, although the far eastern CWA, and into portions of
the James River valley may see light winds for a long enough time to
promote some frost formation closer to sunrise. No plans for a
headline highlighting frost as the areal coverage and uncertainty in
just how cold temps will get go against this decision. That said,
would not be surprised at all to see favored cold spots, and/or
areas of the far northeast CWA see localized frost.

Pressure gradient stays rather tight on Wednesday with southerly
winds gusting to between 30 and 40 mph for many locations west of
the James River. Could actually be some marginal advisory-level
(gusts 45mph or higher) winds across central SD, so something to
watch for. NBM probability for gusts in advisory-level are around
50% or higher across parts of central/south central SD. By
afternoon, 850mb temps range from about +10C to +15C across the
region, so looking at rather mild (above normal) highs in the upper
60s to low 70s. Fire danger will be elevated thanks to the strong
winds, but humidity doesn`t look to get critically low. Did blend in
some lower end (NBM25th) dewpoints for Wednesday afternoon, but RH
is still forecast to be 30-40% at it`s lowest for portions of the
CWA. Thursday appears to be windy as well, although the focus shifts
to the eastern CWA where 30-40 mph gusts are forecast once again.

Looking ahead a bit further, it appears Saturday and Sunday might be
another couple days of windy and above normal temperature
conditions. Probably elevated fire danger once again this weekend,
but still not seeing RH levels get down to near critical values.
Precipitation chances return to the forecast this weekend also as a
surface trough/cold front move through the region. Do not see
abundant amounts of moisture with this system, and NBM probability
for 0.25in or greater in a 24 hour period is only around 40% or
lower through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

There will be VFR conditions through the rest of the day as well as
overnight into Wednesday morning. Winds this afternoon look to be
fairly light and from the northeast to variable before turning to
be from the southeast tonight. These southeast winds will start
to increase early Wednesday morning and peak during the
afternoon. Gusts over central SD are forecast to get up to 27 to
30kts by the mid-morning, and gusts over northeastern SD will gust
up to 20 to 25kts.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...12