602
FXUS63 KABR 131724 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1124 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures through the end of the week. Highs in
  the 60s and 70s on Friday may reach records (See PNS). Fire
  danger Friday is in the moderate to high category.

- Cooler temperatures in the 40s and 50s this weekend, cooling even
  more into the 30s and 40s early next week.

- Rain/snow chances (30-50%) return Monday/Monday night, but many
  uncertainties in regards to system strength and overall
  precipitation amounts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1023 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

No significant updates needed to the forecast for the daytime
period. Will continue to run hourly updates to weather elements as
highs rise into the 50s and 60s under sunny skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 212 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Main concerns in the short term are temperatures, humidity and
winds and how they relate to record warmth and fire weather.

Warm advection is ongoing this morning just off the surface, with
the surface ridge moving into Minnesota resulting in light southeast
surface flow. 850mb flow remains weak, however warm advection
continues through the day, overnight and into Friday. 850mb
temperatures peak well above 2 standard deviations above climo.
Surface winds remain light, shifting to southerly today, and
gradually shift around to the west for Friday to set us up for
efficient mixing.

High/mid clouds are spotty this morning, and should be a non-factor
for the most part today. For Friday, increasing clouds out in North
Dakota could spill over into the northern tier of South Dakota, but
likewise shouldn`t play a major role in temperature influence.

Thus, temperatures today will be around 20 degrees above average,
and with forecast highs a few ticks above NBM thanks to local
terrain effects typical under light westerly flow, we could easily
top out 25 to 30 degrees above normal for Friday and as such are
right around record highs.

So in regards to fire weather, with westerly flow and warm to at a
minimum neutral advection, mixing efficiency for temperatures and
mixing out moisture will be high. GFS (which tends to show higher
levels of mixing) BUFKIT profiles suggest we`ll get fairly close to
the bottom of the inversions, but even within that warm layer aloft,
winds are only about 15 to 20kts. And as there is no gradient across
the Dakotas, no expectation for enhancement/ducting of note in the
stable boundary layer. As such, surface winds should be relatively
light. NBM probabilities of gusts in excess of 25mph (Red Flag) is
about 50/50 for a peak within the Sisseton hills downslope region,
and across south central South Dakota with values dropping rapidly
north of the White River. Thus, little support for any fire weather
headlines at this point with just a few counties on the threshold
along the I-90 corridor where min RH values are down below 25
percent.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 212 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

The main highlights in the long term will be the potential return of
rain and snow early next week with temperatures trending cooler, to
around average, by Monday. Starting out Friday evening, models are
in fairly good agreement on the upper level shortwave continuing to
track across central Canada, along with its occluding surface low
centered over northern Manitoba. ENS is a bit further north with the
center of low and deeper. Its surface trough will extend southward
through the Dakotas with its cold front just off to our northwest.
Through Saturday morning the cold front will pass over the CWA as
winds behind it turn northwesterly. Winds will increase however, not
too gusty with gusts ranging from 20-30kts, highest over Coteau.
GEFS indicates possible moisture with this fropa passing mainly over
northern SD while ENS still tries to bring that moisture more
southward. Comparing soundings, ENS/GEFS have mid level moisture
however, low levels look to overall be drier (GEFS), of course EC is
a *bit* more saturated over the northern CWA. Probability of 24hr
QPF>0.01" is about 40% over the northern CWA GEFS and up to 85% per
ENS. Latest CAMS at this point run to 00Z Saturday with HRRR/NSSLWRF
having the possibility of light precip brushing Corson County with
the other CAMs keeping it north. NBM increased its pops, ranging
from 15-25% from KMBG and west/northwest through Corson County from
00-12Z Saturday. Any light precip that could fall, Ptype would be
light rain/sprinkles as temps will only drop into the upper 30s to
lower 40s through Saturday morning.

Our next system to watch will be arriving early next week. Clusters
are a bit messy but do indicate another split flow trough setting up
just off the Pacific Coast/western CONUS. This far there is still a
bit of variation on placement and intensity of these waves. Even
less continuity between the ensembles as these waves track eastward
through the midweek. ENS is bit deeper and quicker on the waves than
GEFS as it tracks east. Same thing at the surface, as there is quite
a variation in the track/placement of a series of low within this
overall elongated area of low pressure by 12Z Monday. ENS has a
stronger/wetter northern low over the Rockies while GEFS has a
stronger Colorado low and weaker/drier northern low. As this system
tracks east through Tuesday, rain will be the main ptype on the warm
side of the system before changing to rain/snow or snow as cooler
air rushes in on the backside of the system. EC meteograms hint at
possible freezing rain or wintry mix, however, percentage is 10% or
less at KABR/KATY. Latest NBM pops range from 25-50% Monday and
Monday evening through early Tuesday, highest over central SD. Right
now probability of QPF>0.25" is up to 40% over east central SD and
north central ENS while 10% or less over south central SD per GEFS.
Prob of snow>1" is 30% or less over central SD for both models. So
with lots of variation still in models, low confidence exits on
precip timing, location of higher rain/snow amounts, and exact PType
changeover (dependent on temps) at this point.

Highs for the weekend will still run about 5-10 degrees above
average in the 40s and 50s dropping to around average early next
week back into the 30s and 40s. However, the 25-75th spread is 9-14
degrees Monday and 7-11 degrees Tuesday for MaxT and as high as 13
degrees spread James River and eastward Tuesday morning for MinT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with generally
light winds.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...TMT