831
FXUS63 KABR 191717 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1117 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s through next
  Tuesday, which is around 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Warmest
  temperatures will be this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 921 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

No changes planned to the today period forecast. Small area of
rain now up over Marshall county will continue to work northeast
into North Dakota over the next couple of hours.

UPDATE Issued at 508 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Update for 12Z TAF discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 226 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

As of 2 AM, we have some showers moving along the ND/SD border.
These are expected to continue to move west to east across northern
SD through the mid morning hours. Patchy fog is expected around and
on the Prairie Coteau this morning causing some reduced
visibilities. Temperatures this morning are in the 30s with winds
out of the southwest and generally less than 10 mph.

Once the showers move out this morning, the rest of the short term
looks to be dry. An area of weak low pressure will move across the
region Wednesday before high pressure moves in for Thursday.

Temperatures are the main story for the short term. With winds out
of the south ahead of that weak low pressure, we get a shot of
mild air over the region during a period of low level WAA lasting
through this afternoon (the GFS is a bit stronger than other
models on this). A wind shift will occur into the late evening to
overnight hours but overnight temps should remain a bit warmer,
at least over eastern SD. Warmer air also moves in with the high
pressure to continue the above average temps trend.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 226 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

The long term portion of the forecast will feature above average
temperatures through the weekend, with colder air moving into the
region by Thanksgiving. The overall pattern favors mostly dry
conditions through the period.

The period begins with northwesterly flow aloft with warmer air
moving into the region. Depending on deterministic model used, a
couple of dry frontal passages may cross the region, with each
one producing mixing winds. 925 mb temps are mild for this time of
year with the ECMWF and GFS in the single digits to around 10C.
The GFS does cool down some on Sunday, with the ECMWF maintaining
warm air aloft. Even with cool 925 mb temps on Sunday around +5C,
these readings are still at or above the 75th percentile.

Next week, the GFS and ECMWF show a potent low pressure system
crossing southern Canada, with a surface cold front sweeping across
the northern plains. Timing of the cold front yields a wide range
with temperatures, especially on Tuesday. The NBM shows highs at
Aberdeen on Tuesday could be in the upper 40s, or in the mid 30s.
While the current NBM shows dry conditions, there are some ensemble
members suggesting some pcpn on Tuesday, mostly associated with a
storm system across the central and southern plains. Stay tuned as
models will likely struggle with the split flow, or no split flow
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

KPIR should be VFR over the next 24 hours. KABR is coming out of
IFR/MVFR cigs and should see a mix of sct-bkn MVFR cigs this
afternoon into early this evening before bkn-ovc MVFR cigs return
for the rest of tonight into Thursday morning. KMBG and KATY are
probably stuck in some form of IFR bkn-ovc cig for much of now
through 00Z. Then, there could be a period of partial clearing and
MVFR/VFR conditions this evening before these two terminals return
to some form of MVFR/IFR cig for the rest of tonight into Thursday
morning. All the while, there is a cold front moving through all
four terminals during the 24 hour TAF valid period, turning
southerly winds around to the northwest.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...10