618
FXUS63 KABR 090758
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
158 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 10 to 15 degrees below normal temperatures through tonight.

- Above normal temperatures return for the Tuesday - Friday
timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

As of 2am satellite indicates low stratus filtering southward from
ND with radar indicating scattered flurries, mainly James River and
eastward. Main challenge through the morning will be how fast the
stratus deck clears out along with upslope flow over the Coteau as
models indicate 925mb low level moisture hanging around at least
through the late morning/midday. So flurry mention may need to
extend past 12Z. Otherwise, current temps range from the upper teens
to the lower 20s with wind chill values in the single digits.

Northwest flow will turn more northerly this evening as the region
sits to the west of a large elongated mid level low over the Great
Lakes stretching into Quebec and a large amplitude ridge to our west.
Through Monday, the entire pattern will shift east with the ridge
becoming positive tilted and flattening as a shortwave will push
west to east across Canada. By 12Z today at the surface, a large
1040mb high pressure system will be centered over southeastern
Saskatchewan/northwestern ND with the CWA under the southeastern
edge of it. This will continue to sink further southward, with the
center of the high over the region this evening. The high will
continue to track south then southeast, with the CWA on the northern
fringe of it by Monday morning. By Monday midday we will see the
pressure gradient increase as the region will sit between this
exiting high and a low pressure system over northern Canada. Other
than the flurry mention this morning, expect dry conditions through
the rest of the short term.

Winds will continue to be breezy through the afternoon, with the
steeper pressure gradient being behind the low, with gusts between
20-30kts, east of the Mo River and highest along the eastern slopes
of the Coteau. Overall winds will diminish from west to east across
the CWA later on this evening/tonight as the center of the high
moves in. Otherwise, winds will increase again Monday afternoon with
the steepening pressure gradient, as mentioned, with gusts overall
between 20-30kts, highest over north central SD and portions of
south central SD. Temps for today will be quite chilly, about 10-15
degrees below average with highs only in the upper 20s to the mid
30s. With clear skies tonight and light winds along with some areas
having snow on the ground in grassy areas, this should allow for
stronger radiational cooling. However, we do have some mid to high
clouds that will move in closer to 12Z over portions of northern and
northeastern SD so this may hinder a colder reading? Anyways, kept
the trend and blended in some colder guidance with forecasted lows
in the upper single digits to the upper teens, coldest over the
James River Valley. Once again, wind chills could drop to as low as
the single digits above zero. With winds turning southerly for
Monday and warmer air moving in with the ridge, temps will rebound a
bit with highs ranging in the mid 30s to possibly 50, warmest over
south central SD and coldest over the Coteau.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 158 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A clipper system moving through will effectively scour out any
remaining cold air, but comes with a fairly thick mid level cloud
deck, although with a deep, dry subcloud layer below 12kft to
preclude any precipitation. 850mb temperatures, a standard deviation
above climo, comes through overnight at +7 to +16C northeast to
southwest respectively. NBM has a non-diurnal trend, and captures
the coteau downslope conditions overnight, and the post frontal
northwestern winds that follow. A little cooler airmass follows,
however while 850mb temperatures are within a standard deviation of
the realm of climo, they are still above normal with NBM highs/lows
running about 5 to 15 degrees above normal for Wednesday/Thursday. A
stronger surge of milder air comes in with the next system Friday.
NAEFS 850mb anomalies are nearing +2 above climo, with NBM already
promoting highs/lows some 20 degrees above average.

There is also a broad upper trough that moves in from the west for
the weekended. Deterministic models are all in general agreement
with the premise of an upper system moving overhead, lack continuity
so while sticking with NBM at this time, NBM is averaging out POPs
below the mention of any sort of precipitation over the weekend.
This is likely since its really a smattering of a few GEFS/ENS
members generating moisture at any given time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A persistent layer of MVFR stratus continues to gradually sag
south out of North Dakota. Models are almost all too optimistic
in advecting/scattering this deck of clouds, so the forecast
timing was adjusted to keep the MVFR stratus in place longer than
originally anticipated. Northwest winds persist through the next
24 hours. No reduction to VSBYs expected.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMM
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Serr