270
FXUS63 KABR 061830
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
130 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally patchy frost is a possibility Tuesday morning mainly for
north central South Dakota.

- Southerly winds increase on Wednesday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

There are still a few residual sprinkles/light showers west of the
James Valley this afternoon, associated with shortwave energy in the
upper trough. Some of this isolated activity on radar may be no more
than virga as sfc high pressure has settled over SD. Mid levels dry
out more by 21z cutting off the shower moisture.

The upper trough and sfc high are keeping temperatures seasonable.
Confidence is low in overnight lows, though, as NBM has a high bias.
As the sfc high slides farther southeast tonight, westerly winds may
be just high enough to prevent strong radiational cooling. It looks
like high clouds will persist into the evening, as well, sliding
south with the shortwave. Can`t rule out some patchy frost in north
central SD, but even 25th percentile guidance isn`t leaning that
low. Lowered temps a couple of degrees below guidance for now.

Drier mid level air moves in Tuesday night, but so does some waa as
an upper ridge begins to transition into the Plains. Southerly winds
increase ahead of a Rocky Mountains low on Wednesday. The low/trough
moves into the Dakotas on Thursday as a dry front. Temperatures
climb above normal again starting on Wednesday and continuing
through the weekend. Next chance for any showers appears to hold off
until Sunday, though there are some timing differences in the
models.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

High to mid-level clouds are possible through the afternoon and into
the evening. Additionally, more mid-level clouds could move in this
evening and overnight, but terminals are forecast to still have VFR
conditions. Light westerly/northwesterly winds are occurring through
the rest of the day before turning overnight to be from the
west/southwest.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...12