667
FXUS63 KABR 030535 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1135 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds slowly diminish through the rest of the evening and
overnight tonight. Diminishing winds and cooling temperatures will
also alleviate fire weather concerns.

- The upcoming work week features slightly above normal temperatures
(5-15 degrees), with a pattern shift and more seasonal temperatures
for next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

See the updated aviation discussion for the 06 TAFs below.

UPDATE Issued at 832 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

A few radar returns persist across the CWA this evening, however,
cloud bases at or above 6000 feet and a 00Z sounding validating
the model depiction of very dry low levels, has by and far
prevented precipitation from reaching the ground. Continue to
mention a chance of sprinkles in the forecast, however no obs have
picked up on precipitation so far. Northwest winds continue to
gradually loose their gustiness and should continue that trend
overnight and into Monday as high pressure moves in. Overall the
forecast remains on track this evening and no major changes made.

UPDATE Issued at 538 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

See the updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Mid clouds have moved over the northeast tier of South Dakota, with
some light returns so will keep the sprinkles mention going. The
front is just east of Aberdeen, with northwest winds on the increase
across central South Dakota, and a peak wind gust of 52 mph at the
Grand River RAWS. We also have seen central/south central South
Dakota overachieve in temperatures with humidity down around 25%.
But, as we`re moving into November, we`re past peak heating so
should see winds stall then on a slow, steady decline while
temperatures drop and humidity increases. Surface high pressure
moves to the south tonight with westerly low level flow, which
continues into Monday before winds become more southerly. The next
clipper is weaker, with the core of strongest winds well south of
the CWA, and not quite as strong a push of mid-level warm air.
Surface high pressure moves overhead for Wednesday. That is followed
by another clipper Thursday. Canadian and GFS show some wrap around
QPF late, but its just a random smattering of ensembles that bring
any appreciable moisture into the area. Will stick with NBM until
we start to see better agreement between guidance and a more
thorough evaluation is possible.

As for temperatures, good mixing on westerly winds tomorrow. Milder
aloft Tuesday with the clipper. Less efficient mixing and cooler
aloft for Wednesday with placement of the high. The range in high
temperatures between the 25th and 75th percentiles becomes quite
large Thursday owing to the next clipper system.

We can see the longwave pattern beginning to break down, from the
current zonal flow across the northern Pacific fire-hosing clippers
into the Plains, to a much higher amplitude trough-ridge-trough
pattern across the CONUS with troughs over the Pacific Northwest and
eastern CONUS. This puts us under a northwest flow regime, which
would normally result in stronger cold pools with shorter
duration/weaker warm pushes in-between. This is also showing up as a
drop in confidence regarding late week/weekend temperatures, with
the NBM average being about 12 to 16 degrees Fahrenheit between the
25th/75th percentiles, or between low 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail. Westerly winds will persist through
Monday afternoon, then gradually return from the south as a weak
surface low pressure system approaches Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Serr
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...Serr