867
FXUS63 KABR 031109
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
509 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The upcoming work week features slightly above normal temperatures
(5-10 degrees), with a pattern shift and more seasonal/cooler
temperatures for next weekend.

- Saturday and Sunday are being monitored for potential
precipitation. Right now, if precipitation potential does
materialize, the temperature forecast would support rain and/or snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 507 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Aviation discussion below has been updated in accordance with the
12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 336 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Upper-level trough moves off this morning, leaving a shallow ridge
producing mainly zonal flow aloft. With the departure of the trough,
the pressure gradient will weaken as a high pressure center fills
into the Northern Plains by the late morning to early afternoon.
This setup will promote dry conditions today, and only some mid to
high clouds are expected. With 500mb heights of ~5670m around the
75th percentile this time of year, surface high temperatures this
afternoon will correspondingly be about 5 degrees above normal for
early November, in the mid-50s across the forecast area. The
westerly winds will continue to bring in drier air through the day
today, and dew points will dip into the low 20s. This decrease means
that afternoon humidity will dip down to around 20 percent, although
the relatively light wind speeds will help keep the area from seeing
any significant fire weather concerns.

A shortwave induced jet streak moves overhead Tuesday, supporting a
low pressure center that will build into the forecast area by
Tuesday afternoon. No precipitation is expected with this system,
although some scattered low clouds may be possible. While
temperatures will hold in the mid to upper 50s Tuesday afternoon, a
shift to northerly winds on the back side of the low will place the
forecast area under a weak cold air advection regime moving into
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

When the period opens Tuesday evening, surface low pressure is
moving into Minnesota. Models depict this low dragging a cold front
across the CWA Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with low
level CAA happening Tuesday night into Wednesday. Pretty low
probabilities for measurable precipitation attached to this cold
fropa Tuesday evening, so for the moment, the forecast remains a dry
one Tuesday night.

Looking ahead to the end of the week, the pattern becomes rather
active, with system after system pummeling the western CONUS upper
level ridge, flattening it enough to bring a handful of shortwave
systems into the northern plains from Thursday through Sunday. The
Thursday system drags a cold front through the CWA Thursday night,
and the potential for some post-frontal (rain p-type) precipitation
late Thursday night into Friday morning is starting to come into
focus. Additional chances for precipitation appear realistic enough
for Friday night into Saturday and again on Sunday. With the
variability in timing of precipitation and placement of low level
thermal progs across the region in the GSM`s from Friday through
Sunday, there is a wide range of potential solutions for
precipitation-type over the weekend.

But, for the moment, the models appear to agree on the degree of
coldness that will be over the region Saturday and Sunday, including
the potential for WAA-forced rain p-type (somewhere) heading into
Friday night, before a mix of rain/snow Saturday ends as light snow
Saturday night. Then, conditions this go round, support a short-
lived window of all snow p-type on Sunday.

Certainly seeing warmer conditions as the period opens compared to
at the end of the period. As the previous forecaster mentioned, the
significant temperature spread in 25th to 75th percentiles continues
in tonight`s guidance. But, with potentially some of the coldest air
of the season at 925hpa (which is basically barely making a dent in
the Ensembles Anomalies S.A. table at 850hpa) being progged to
advect down across the CWA over the weekend, certainly have to
include snow, as well as rain, in the p-type conversation for
Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 507 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

High pressure settles into the area this morning, leading to dry
conditions across the forecast area. VFR conditions are expected
through the time period, with some high to scattered mid clouds
through the TAF period. Westerly winds of 10-15 knots gusting to 20
knots expected today, with the strongest winds being in the
afternoon over northeastern South Dakota into western Minnesota.
Winds are expected to shift to be southerly tonight as the high
pressure center departs and a low pressure center begins to build
into the north. No precipitation is expected with this low pressure
center. Winds aloft will create a bit of wind shear overnight,
mainly over central South Dakota and extending up into the James
River Valley. As such, wind shear has been added to the KPIR and
KABR TAFs.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...BC