696
FXUS63 KABR 020219 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
919 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Saturday. Highs
  will be in the 80s, and even low 90s Friday. These readings are
  20- 25 degrees above normal.

- Saturday and Sunday will be windy, with at least a 20 percent
  chance of gusts at or above 45 mph each afternoon.

- A cold front will bring a 60 to 80% chance of rain Saturday night
  into Sunday over mainly central and north central SD.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Still a lingering 25-35kt low-level jet across the far eastern
CWA through around 09Z tonight. Water vapor and other satellite
imagery reveals the eastern CWA is likely on the back side of weak
shortwave energy moving into MN. A bit of mid-level development in
clouds has led to showers/sprinkles forming over parts of the
eastern CWA into southwest MN, where LightningCast is showing
25-50% probs down that way. Minimal instability with HREF ensemble
mean MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/KG, and rather dry low levels as
well. Slight chance PoPs already in the forecast for eastern areas
so only minor modifications needed. Weak cool front/surface
trough has entered north central SD with KMBG winds having
switched to the west-northwest earlier this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Our very warm and mainly dry trend will continue through at least
Saturday. Highs will again be in the 80s Thursday, with much lighter
winds as the surface trough currently set up from north central ND
through western SD moves to eastern SD Thursday morning and into MN
in the afternoon.

Behind the trough we`ll see southerly winds returning, helping to
usher slightly warmer air in for Friday. Highs Friday will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s. The pressure gradient will continue to
increase Friday as the low to our west becomes better organized over
eastern MT/WY/ND, with afternoon gusts in the 30 mph range across
much of central SD. Friday night could bring light showers to mainly
central SD, and we`ll have to monitor the latest trends for possible
inclusion in future forecasts.

By 06Z Saturday the surface low is expected to move over western SD
through central SD. Slight changes on the timing of this feature
will make for significant differences in our sensible weather
(clouds cover, temperatures, wind speed and direction). The
elongated low looks to be over mainly central SD by 00Z Sunday and
deepen/consolidate over portions of southeastern ND by 12Z Sunday.

A windy weekend is forecast, and wind headlines are likely. On
Saturday, winds are forecast to gust out of the south 35 to 45 mph
from south central to northeastern South Dakota and west central
Minnesota. Winds and continued dry conditions could result in fire
weather conditions, especially during harvest season. We will
highlight the need for monitoring the latest forecast, farm
equipment maintenance, and safety in some social media graphics.

On Sunday, winds will be switching out of the northwest behind a
cold front, gusting 35 to near 50 mph. Several ensemble members in
the 00Z run of the EC have wind gusts at or above 50 mph forecast
for Sunday. This is a significant difference/increase from 24 hours
ago. The ECMWF extreme forecast index and shift of tails highlight
much of the area east of the Missouri River for the potential need
for at least a Wind Advisory Saturday and Sunday. We will see if
this trend continues, but will at least highlight the potential for
planning purposes.

The cold front late Saturday and Sunday will bring our next chance
of wet weather for the entire region. There is a 50% chance of
receiving over 0.25" of rain Saturday night through Sunday northwest
of a line over the northwestern half of South Dakota, and around an
80% chance near Mobridge (north central SD). As noted on the
previous discussion, thunderstorms will be possible near/along the
cold front. NCAR medium-range real-time convective hazard forecasts
back this up and we`ll may need to be watching for the potential or
damaging winds or hail. Given the strong winds just above the
surface, damaging winds will likely be the main concern.

The consensus is for drier weather and lighter winds late Sunday
evening and Monday as high pressure shifts across the area. Lows in
the mid 30s and low 40s look common Monday morning through Wednesday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. For the KATY
region, still some lingering lower-level winds at 25-35kts around
2000ft through 09Z before diminishing. Wind shear conditions look
marginal.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
DISCUSSION...06
AVIATION...TMT