087
FXAK68 PAFC 150147
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 PM AKST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A low pressure system currently centered just south of Kodiak
Island is sending a front across the western Gulf of Alaska,
bringing precipitation and gusty winds to Kodiak, the southern
Kenai Peninsula, and surrounding marine areas. Coastal gap winds
out of the Copper River Delta, Resurrection Bay, and through the
Barren Islands will remain elevated as the low tracks into the
southern gulf over the next 24 hours.

An upper level shortwave moving over the Copper River Basin and
eastern Prince William Sound may be able to pull in some moisture
from the Gulf low and provide enough support for snow Saturday
evening through Sunday morning along the Richardson and Edgerton
Highways from Valdez up to Glennallen and McCarthy. Farther west,
the Cook Inlet and Mat-Su Valley regions will see clearing skies
tomorrow as a transient ridge moves over the region between
systems.

A strong low moving into the Bering Sea on Sunday will send a
front over Southcentral at the end of the weekend. Prince William
Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula will see the heaviest
precipitation, but the Cook Inlet region up through the Susitna
Valley could see light snow as well on Monday. This system kicks
off a very active pattern for southern Alaska through much of the
next week.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Cold and dry conditions will persist over the Southwest mainland
through Sunday morning while a weak ridge remains in place.
This afternoon, a compact low south of the Pribilof Islands will
dissipate as it attempts to cross the Alaska Peninsula. Gales and
light rain are expected in its wake for Nikolski, Unalaska and
Akutan. Meanwhile, the front of a larger low just east of the
Kamchatka coastline approaches the western Bering. Before this new
low enters the Western bering on Saturday morning its front sweeps
across the Aleutian Chain with southwesterly gales and bands of
light to moderate rain. By Sunday morning, a smaller North
Pacific low trailing along the front enters the eastern Bering,
passing northbound between Unalaska and False Pass. Improving
model consensus then depicts this low remaining east of the
Pribilof Islands and lifting to just west of Nunivak Island by
Monday morning.

Southeasterly wind ahead of the low`s passage and a slight
northwesterly track of the low between the Pribilof and Nunivak
Islands will shorten the fetch, and be unfavorable for a
significant increase in storm surge along the Kuskokwim Delta
coast. However, moderate rainfall with potential gales will are
expected to affect Aleutian Chain, Alaska Peninsula and western
mainland coast. Warm air advection behind the front will bring
above freezing mid-level and surface temperatures. With surface
temperatures over the mainland still in the single digits to low
teens, snow might become a mix with freezing rain before a
transition to rain Sunday and Monday over the Kuskokwim Delta,
Dillingham, and Bristol Bay. By Monday afternoon, surface
temperatures warm into the low 40s across the Bering, Bristol Bay,
and AKPen, while the mainland warms into the low to mid 30s.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

An active and progressive pattern looks likely through the long
term period as several storms affect the Bering Sea and southern
Alaska over the next week. By early next week, a broad and
persistent upper level trough establishes itself over the Bering
Sea and sends a front across the Aleutians and Southwest Alaska.
As this front progresses across the Bering, elevated winds and
rain along the front are likely across the southern Bering,
including to Aleutian Chain and Pribilof Islands Tuesday into
Wednesday. The front reaches the Southwest Alaska coast by midweek
and brings light rain and snow to much of Southwest before
dissipating. This will be quickly followed by the next low lifting
out of the North Pacific as several shortwaves rotate around the
large upper low centered over the Bering. Fair model agreement
shows this system lifting across the AKPen and into Southwest
Alaska, bringing another round of light snow and rain to the
Southwest Mainland. Strong southeasterly flow promotes heavy
precipitation along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf
coast Thursday into Friday. Models begin to diverge by mid to late
next week, though weather in the Gulf and Southcentral is
expected remain generally unsettled and wet as the upper trough
over the Bering begins to progress eastward. Persistent southerly
flow through mid next week will result in temperatures trending
warmer across southern Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are forecast
through the period.

BL

&&

$$