138
FXAK68 PAFC 081405
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 AM AKST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Message:

Weather continues to remain active across Southcentral Alaska with
continued threats strong winds and dangerously low wind chills.
Winds will begin to weaken later today, but remaining gusty into the
overnight hours. Blowing snow will subside with decreasing winds.
The cold airmass will be with us well into the workweek.

...Active Warnings and Advisories...

- A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Matanuska Valley
through 1PM Monday for 35 to 50 mph winds with gusts up to 80 mph.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Anchorage and the NW Kenai
Peninsula through 1PM Monday. North winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts
to 45 mph expected. Strongest winds expected along the  Knik Arm
from Birchwood southwest, across North and West Anchorage, and along
the coast of the northern Cook Inlet, including Kenai and Nikiski.

- A Blizzard Warning remains in effect through 4PM Monday for
Thompson Pass for ground blizzard conditions. Wind gusts as high as
80 mph expected. Wind chills will remain near -40F.

- A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Copper River
Basin until 4PM Tuesday for very cold wind chills as low as 40 to 50
below.


Discussion:

The Gulf low is starting to elongate as a large ridge over the
western Bering starts to push eastwards and a NE/SW oriented front,
and associated trough, start to push through southern Alaska towards
the Gulf. Scattered showers are still ongoing over the Gulf near the
vicinity of the low, but will shift south and east today as the Gulf
low merges with the approaching trough. Kodiak Island should finally
see improving conditions this morning from the moderate to heavy
snow and strong winds as the low shifts east; however, periods of
light snow will be possible as the incoming front approaches then
moves out into the Gulf.

Strong gap winds that have been ongoing for several days across the
Matanuska Valley, Knik Arm/Cook Inlet, Valdez, and Thompson Pass
will start to gradually decrease today as the pressure gradient
starts to relax. However, gusty winds are likely to continue...just
not as strong as we have seen over the past few days. Valdez may see
periods of strong winds continue as the gradient restrengthens later
this week.

Cold temperatures look to continue for the foreseeable future as
several more reinforcing shot of cold, arctic air continue through
the week. As a result, dangerous wind chills will also continue
through much of the week with the coldest temperatures and wind
chills expected across the Copper River Basin where temperatures
will drop into the -20s to -30s and wind chill values of -40 to -50
degrees.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This morning through Thursday morning)...

Active Products:

* Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Lower Kuskokwim
  Valley from Kalskag to Stoney until 6PM AKST Monday.

* Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast,
  Including Nunivak Island and the Interior Kuskokwim Delta until
  1PM AKST Monday.


Discussion:

Very cold temperatures and gusty winds persist across Southwest
Alaska this morning with wind chills 20 to 35 below zero expected
to persist through the day today, especially for communities near
the Western Alaska Range including Lime Village, Sparrevohn, and
Stoney. The strongest winds continue to be observed across Nelson
Island, including the communities of Toksook Bay and Tununak.
Strong winds continue to loft the remaining transportable snow in
these communities, resulting in periods of reduced visibilities
down to under two miles at times. Winds will gradually begin to
diminish throughout today and through the early part of this
week. Additionally, conditions will remain dry and mostly clear
through much of this week as high pressure continues to sit over
Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea/Aleutians.

The next front/low combinations enter the western Bering Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning, bringing a round of rainfall and
potentially some gale-force winds to the Western Aleutians.
Models are in fairly good agreement on the idea that the system
remains mainly confined to the Western Aleutians and the western
Bering as the strong upper level ridge remains centered over the
Aleutian Chain through midweek.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

The long-term pattern will continue to be dominated by a strong
ridge in the central Bering Sea with quiet conditions across the
Central Aleutians since they will be mostly under the core of the
ridge axis. Across the Western Aleutians, weather will be a little
more active there as the area will be upstream/behind the ridge
and within southerly flow. A weak front will move over the Western
Aleutians both Thursday and another one may possibly clip the
area on Friday. Light rain chances are better for the system on
Thursday as the system on Friday may be a little too far west.
Each system will bring small-craft to gale-force winds across the
marine areas of the Western Aleutians. Rain chances decrease
Saturday and Sunday across the Western Aleutians. The Eastern
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN), and across the Southern
Mainland will remain downstream/ahead of the large Bering ridge
through the long-term. This will promote more northerly flow, cold
temperatures, and windy conditions; this is especially true
through the favored terrain, gaps, and passes of the Eastern
Aleutians, AKPEN, Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, Valdez Narrows,
and Thompson Pass. Most of the domain, except for the Western
Aleutians, stays dry through the period. The only exception maybe
Friday into Saturday when a weak shortwave drops down from the
north and brings some light snow to the Kuskokwim Valley and
northern Copper River Basin.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with gusty northerly winds will continue
through the TAF period. Winds will remain breezy with stiff
northerly winds coming down the Knik Arm and clipping the west
side of Anchorage. Winds decrease significantly going eastward,
likely such that there may be a noticeable difference in speed on
the west side of the terminal vs. east side at times.

&&


$$