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FXAK68 PAFC 031442
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
542 AM AKST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Points:

- A light mix of rain and/or freezing rain is possible this morning
through early afternoon for portions of the western Kenai with
lesser chances for the Anchorage Bowl and Eagle River.

Discussion:

Snow looks to be winding down across the northern Susitna and Copper
Valleys per webcams, therefore the Winter Weather Advisories for the
Susitna Valley and norther Copper Valley have been cancelled.
However, there will likely still be pockets of light snow this
morning, so caution is still advised if traveling north along the
Parks or Richardson Highways.

Elsewhere, the weather overnight has been pretty quiet with gusty
winds along the Hillside areas having decreased. The PANC ROAB
soundings from both 00Z and 12Z show significant warm, dry air
several hundred feet above a strong surface inversion, which has
made for widely varying overnight temperatures. Areas that have seen
occasionally breezy winds have had temperatures ranging from the mid
30s to lower 40s. Those areas that have stayed calm overnight have
stayed consistently in the upper 20s to lower 30s. This will come
into play later as another round of precipitation starts to work
north across the Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet. Early morning water
vapor imagery shows this wave near Kodiak Island where light rain is
falling. A band of precipitation is has also started to push
northward across the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula where light
rain briefly fell in Homer and Seldovia as it moved through. It is
uncertain how far north this initial band is expected to make it
before either dissipating or stalling until the next push later this
morning. If it does make it into Kenai/Soldotna, temperatures there
are currently in the upper 20s, and while temperatures might warm to
near to just above freezing, some localized light freezing rain is
likely. The next push of precipitation will come a little later this
morning as the wave lifts north towards the Barren Islands where it
will then take a slight jog to the east, moving along the eastern
Kenai Coast before moving into Prince William Sound. This second
push will bring another round of precipitation across the southern
Kenai and Cook Inlet.

Much more uncertainty exists further north for the Anchorage Bowl,
Eagle River, and the southern Susitna Valley. With the low expected
to weaken as it tracks up along the coast towards Prince William
Sound, and quite a bit of warm, dry air in place just above the
surface...any precipitation will be fighting hard to make it to the
surface unless we get saturate a little further down. Several of the
high-res models do have the moistening of the lower-levels
occurring, but not until early afternoon. So while there is a chance
for a period of light rain/freezing rain for Anchorage and Eagle
River (and possibly the lower Susitna Valley), it does appear that
better chances will exist along the Hillside areas where it will be
easier for precipitation to make it to the surface.

The Gulf Coastal zones will also see another round of precipitation
from this shortwave with some precipitation spilling over into the
southern Copper Basin where precipitation may start out as rain
before changing over to snow by this evening.

Looking a bit further out in time... A cooling trend will be in
store heading into the weekend as an Arctic airmass drops south
across Alaska.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A strong low in the Bering is currently located south of
Nikolski, and is the primary driver for the active weather pattern
across both the Eastern Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska. This low
is bringing storm force winds into the Pribilof Islands and gale
force winds along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. The low is also
advecting warm air and moisture into the Southwest Mainland. This
warm air allows temperatures to warm above freezing aloft while
temperatures remain below freezing in the much of Kuskokwim Delta
and the lower Kuskokwim Valley. However, the whole column of
temperatures remained below freezing along the southwest and west
coast of the Kuskokwim Delta and Nunivak Island. This, along with
gusty winds is allowing for blizzard conditions for the Kuskokwim
Delta coast and Nunivak Island. Meanwhile, Bristol Bay is warm
enough for precipitation types to remain as rain.

Through this morning, the low will continue weakening, but gusty
winds in the Bering and precipitation in Bristol Bay will
continue. Precipitation chances in the Kuskokwim Delta will
significantly decrease, but some snow/freezing rain showers may
still be possible. Due to this chance, the Ice Storm Warning is
still in effect until 9 AM this morning. By Thursday, both winds
and precipitation chances will decrease as a drier and cold air
mass moves in from the north. This Arctic air mass will quickly
drop temperatures across Southwest Alaska, with lows reaching the
single digits in the Kuskokwim Delta and the teens in Bristol Bay
by Thursday night. Also, winds will turn northeasterly. By Friday,
pressure gradients will tighten in the Kuskokwim Delta, leading
to an increase in wind speeds. Looking ahead to the weekend, this
air mass will further infiltrate as an Arctic Low moves into
Southwest Alaska. Winds will become gusty in the Kuskokwim Delta
with temperatures falling below zero. Due to the combination of
gusty winds and below zero temperatures, extreme freezing spray is
possible from Nunivak Island north and west to Cape Newenham. A
Marine Weather Statement has been issued with more details on this
potential.

-JAR/CL


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...

Model differences in the long term forecast continue to decrease
forecast confidence, beginning over the weekend and into early
next week. Greatest confidence is in the arrival of an arctic air
mass dropping southward into Southwest and Southcentral Alaska
through the long term period. Gusty northeasterly winds will
accompany the colder air mass with potential for wind chills well
below zero, especially across the Kuskokwim Delta. Winds offshore
of the Kuskokwim Delta coast may also pose a threat of extreme
freezing spray for mariners near the ice edge.

Uncertainty increases more substantially for the Southcentral
forecast. A developing area of low pressure will take shape over
the weekend, though where exactly the low deepens is in question.
A low across the northern Gulf and closer to the coast will
certainly equate to increasing snow for coastal mountains and even
interior Southcentral. A low further from the coast and possibly
further east, will mean drier conditions with colder low
temperatures. For now, the signal is for below normal temperatures
across both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska in the long term.


-BL

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Low-level wind shear with calm wind near the surface and
20 knots southeasterly between 500 and 1500 feet tapers off after
16Z. Ceilings generally remain VFR. Chances for light
precipitation return after 19Z with potential MVFR ceilings after
21Z.

-ER

&&


$$