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FXAK68 PAFC 071509 CCA
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Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
609 AM AKST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Friday
through Sunday)...

The first major winter storm for much of Prince William Sound,
Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and Matanuska Valley will slowly
wind down this morning as the surface low that sat nearly
stationary over Montague Island over the past several hours
weakens and moves north as its attendant vigorous upper-level
shortwave moves with it over interior Alaska.

This storm was quite challenging to forecast, and the resultant
storm track made all the difference with respect to wind,
precipitation type, and snow amounts. Two nights ago, this low
looked to track south of Seward with a warmer easterly push of
wind across Prince William Sound toward the eastern Kenai
Peninsula out ahead of a strong frontal boundary. Instead, this
storm took a more northerly track then stalled near Chenega. This
kept the easterly winds at bay and allowed for offshore gap winds
to persist, with colder air remaining in place along the coast.
The more northerly track and stalled low also allowed
precipitation to fall as all snow, with the heaviest band of snow
remaining over northern and eastern Kenai Peninsula and through
Turnagain Arm to Girdwood and Anchorage. While final snow totals
have yet to be tallied, reports and observations show upwards of
10-20" of snow for Girdwood and Turnagain Arm, 8-14" from Hope to
north of Seward, 12-24"+ for Whittier and Portage, 5-10" for the
Anchorage Bowl, and several inches for the Kenai/Soldotna area.
Winds in Seward and Whittier also allowed for blowing snow, with
Whittier likely in blizzard conditions for several hours late last
night into early Friday morning.

As the low and its upper-level wave lift north, the snow will
finally taper off. Another 1-3" of accumulation is possible for
both the Kenai/Soldotna and Portage/Whittier areas with up to an
inch possible for areas around Anchorage.

A weaker wave will move over western Prince William Sound and the
Kenai Peninsula later today and into the Susitna Valley by this
evening. As it does, a band of light snow will likely move over
the coastal mountains, across the Cook Inlet area, and continue
north toward Talkeetna. Any snow from this band is expected to be
light with up to an inch of additional snow accumulation.

Tonight, a stronger wave lifts north into the Copper River Basin
with snow moving from the the southern half of the basin to the
Alaska Range by Saturday morning. Again, snow amounts should be on
the lighter side, with a general 1-4" of snow likely.

By late Saturday into Sunday, the upper-level low east of Kodiak
begins to drift south, allowing for a ridge of high pressure to
build in across the interior. This will allow for clearer
conditions and seasonal temperatures. Northerly gap winds will
redevelop along the immediate coast as the pressure gradient
tightens between the ridge over the interior and a trough setting
up over the northern Gulf.

Resuspended ash from the 1912 Katmai-Novarupta eruption can still
be viewed via satellite moving over Shelikof Strait towards
Kodiak Island. This will continue through tonight as winds remain
strong due to cold air advection south of the low. A Special
Weather Statement has been issued for potential ash resettling
over Kodiak Island. Winds may gust between 50 and 65 mph across
Shelikof Strait this morning before slowly diminishing in
intensity.

-TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Gusty northerly winds will continue through the gaps and passes
of the Alaska Peninsula through today, weakening later this
afternoon. Additionally, a weak front in the central Bering Sea
will bring brief periods very light precipitation to the Pribilof
Islands and Eastern Aleutians this morning and will diminish early
this afternoon.

Further west, a strong front moves over the Western Aleutians
today. Hurricane force winds are expected to impact areas from
Shemya to Amchitka, thus a High Wind Warning is in effect for
noon today through Saturday morning, please see product for more
information. The strong front will spread eastward, moving over
Adak with storm-force southerly winds initially, diminishing to
gale-force tonight. Along the front, also expect light-to-
moderate rainfall rates. The front will retain its strength from
there, advancing steadily eastward moving over Unalaska and the
southern Alaska Peninsula by Saturday night. Channeled gusty
southerly winds through favored gaps and passes on the northern
side of the Alaska Peninsula, such as Cold Bay, may see locally
higher winds.

As the front reaches the Kuskokwim Delta coast Saturday evening,
gusty winds small craft to gale force may push coastal waters
onshore and raise water levels 2 to 3 feet beyond the normal
highest tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from Saturday
evening through noon Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be cold
enough for precipitation to remain as snow as the front
approaches. Combined with gusty winds, blowing snow is expected,
with potential visibility reductions of one mile or less, though
some uncertainty remains. Stay tuned for the latest info on this
rapidly evolving system, and potential impacts for your area.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The long term continues to remain active as several storms
continue to progress through the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. By
the beginning of the long term period early next week, the strong
low in the Bering continues to weaken ahead of a ridge entering
the western Bering while a triple point low forms along its
decaying front in the North Pacific. As the ridge continues to
push east in the Bering, there is moderate confidence that the
triple point low will curve into the Gulf through early next week.
However, differences in the track across the Gulf continues to
make it difficult to ascertain how far into Southcentral
precipitation will go, with the bulk of potentially stronger winds
and precipitation likely remaining along the coast and over the
Gulf.

By late Monday into early Tuesday morning, a strong low moving
along the Kamchatka coast will begin pushing its front into the
western Bering Sea. For now, model guidance continues to be
consistent with winds along the front remaining at sustained high-
end gales to storm force through Tuesday for the western and
central Aleutians. As this front pushes into the eastern Bering
and into the Southwest Alaska coast, reasonably good model
agreement suggests a more rapid weakening of the front as the
parent low continues to spin along the Kamchatka coast through
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...IFR conditions will continue through mid-morning with
periods of snow as an area of low pressure east of Anchorage lifts
north into interior Southcentral. As it does, IFR conditions will
likely improve to MVFR ceilings as the snow tapers off. VFR
ceilings and visibilities are possible by late this morning
through early afternoon before another round of snow develops over
the coastal mountains. This band of snow is expected to move over
the terminal late this evening, likely resulting in a period of
MVFR conditions in light snow before clearing again around
midnight. Winds are expected to remain light and variable through
the day.

&&


$$