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FXAK68 PAFC 080135
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 PM AKST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
This afternoon through Monday afternoon)...

The remnants of yesterday`s snow storm continue to linger in the
Western Gulf, but much more benign conditions are in store as it
weakens and exits the Gulf through tomorrow. Focus shifts,
instead, to a strong North Pacific low entering the Gulf from late
Sunday into Monday, which looks to bring widespread gales and a
return to wetter conditions. Impacts in Southcentral will be
highly dependent on how far north the low tracks, which is still
uncertain at this time. Otherwise, generally trending colder
across the region, with temperatures dipping as low as the single
digits in the Copper River Basin and about 10-20 degrees for all
but the immediate coastline and Kodiak Island. Resuspended ash
from the 1912 Katmai-Novarupta eruption will likely continue
to move over Kodiak Island through tomorrow morning, after which
ash will settle out as winds subside.

Diving into the details... the latest information on yesterday`s
snow totals can be found via the Local Storm Reports on our
webpage. Generally, 4-8 inches in Western Kenai Peninsula, 6-10
inches in Anchorage and Eagle River, and up to 4 inches in Palmer.
The greatest amounts were at higher elevations along the Seward
Highway, with snow totals about 1-2 feet.

Though the heaviest snow has ended, many areas will see periods of
lighter snow through tomorrow as upper level shortwaves rotate
around the low in the Gulf. A stronger wave lifts north into the
Copper River Basin through tonight, with snow moving from the the
southern half of the basin to the Alaska Range by Saturday
morning. This same wave will also bring some snow across
Anchorage Borough and the Mat-Su Valleys, though snow amounts have
trended lower for Anchorage since the previous forecast. Snow
totals through tonight will remain on the lighter side, with up to
2 inches likely. Higher amounts are possible along Western Prince
William Sound, where onshore flow will lead to a longer duration
of snow showers.

By late Saturday into Sunday, the upper-level low east of Kodiak
begins to drift south, allowing for a ridge of high pressure to
build in across the interior. This will allow for clearer
conditions and colder temperatures. Northerly gap winds will
redevelop along the immediate coast as the pressure gradient
tightens between the ridge over the interior and a trough setting
up over the northern Gulf.

Towards the end of the weekend, a 970-980 mb low will move into
the Gulf from the North Pacific. Models have struggled mightily
with this low the past few days but have come into much better
agreement over the course of today. There`s good consensus for
widespread gales, and that this low (for now) will remain offshore
in the Gulf. With this track, expect cooler temperatures and
offshore winds to persist over Mainland Southcentral. The one
hazard to monitor will be the potential for blowing snow through
Thompson Pass if precipitation makes it far enough north to
coincide with gusty offshore winds.

-TM/KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Gusty northerly winds will continue through the gaps and passes
of the Alaska Peninsula through this evening, coming to an end
tonight. Further west, a deep low pressure system has moved over
the Western Bering this morning, pushing a strong front into the
Western Aleutians. Hurricane force winds over Shemya to Amchitka,
will continue tonight, thus a High Wind Warning is currently in
effect through Saturday morning, please see product for more
information. The strong front will spread eastward, moving over
Adak with storm-force southerly winds initially, diminishing to
gale-force tonight. Along the front, also expect light-to-
moderate rainfall rates. The front will retain its strength from
there, advancing steadily eastward moving over Unalaska and the
southern Alaska Peninsula by Saturday night. Channeled gusty
southerly winds through favored gaps and passes on the northern
side of the Alaska Peninsula, such as Cold Bay, which may see
locally higher winds.

As the front reaches the Kuskokwim Delta coast Saturday evening,
gusty winds small craft to gale force may push coastal waters
onshore and raise water levels 2 to 3 feet beyond the normal
highest tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from Saturday
evening through noon Sunday. Temperatures are expected to be cold
enough for precipitation to remain as snow as the front
approaches. Combined with gusty winds, blowing snow is expected,
with visibility reductions of half mile or less. As such, a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta coast and
the Western Capes of Southwest. Stay tuned for the latest info on
this rapidly evolving system, and potential impacts for your
area.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

There is little change to the long term outlook from yesterday as
the overall pattern remains active, highlighted by the next
strong storm arriving in the western Bering by Tuesday. This
large, vertically stacked low moving along the Kamchatka coast
will begin pushing its front into the western and central
Aleutians through Tuesday. There continues to be moderate to high
confidence that winds along this front will reach sustained high-
end gale to storm force as the front reaches the western Aleutians
Monday night into Tuesday morning. As this front pushes east
through Tuesday into Wednesday, reasonably good model agreement
suggests the front quickly weakening as it reaches the Alaska
Peninsula and Southwest Alaska coast as the parent low continues
to spin along the Kamchatka coast through midweek. As the front
pushed inland across the Mainland, light snow can be expected for
much of Southwest Alaska Wednesday and Thursday.

Downstream of the system in the Bering, upper level ridging
pushing into Southcentral looks to keep the weather relatively
quiet through midweek. Confidence begins to decrease mid to late
next week as models continue to show significant spread on the
development of low pressure systems lifting north towards the
Aleutians and tracking into the Gulf. Differences in the track
across the Gulf continue to make it difficult to ascertain how far
into Southcentral precipitation will go, with the bulk of
potentially stronger winds and precipitation likely remaining
along the coast and over the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR ceilings with northerly winds up to 10 kts expected.
VFR ceiling and visibility are possible at times this afternoon
before another round of light snow moves over the terminal this
evening. VFR conditions should return once the snow moves out of
the area after 09Z.

&&


$$