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FXAK68 PAFC 231427
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 AM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Overall a rather quiet weather pattern is over Southcentral today
with a vertically stacked low in the central Gulf brining some
showers just up to the coast, but mainly staying offshore. a weak
shortwave associated with an upper level low in the Interior is
bringing some clouds along the Alaska Range, but the precipitation
is expected to hang up along the Range and not spill any farther
into Southcentral. Between these two features, there is weak upper
level ridging over Southcentral producing northeasterly flow over
the region. This setup is leading to widespread fog across the
Cook Inlet region this morning as it did for most of the day
yesterday. This is the main weather challenge for the day: will
the fog dissipate or remain in place for most of the day and into
tonight? The pattern is not changing and the 12Z sounding out of
Anchorage shows a strong inversion up to around 1500 ft which
should help keep fog in place. It is interesting to see that
almost all NWP models are drying out the lowest levels of the
atmosphere as the day today progresses and largely dissipating
the fog by the afternoon. What this probably means is that while
the fog will likely become less widespread through the day, there
will be some that stubbornly persists through the day and into
tonight. By Monday, there is more reason to think the fog should
largely dissipate as the Gulf low moves farther eastward and the
airmass over Southcentral dries out further.

Looking ahead, the next front moves into the western Gulf and
Kodiak Island on Monday. Gusty southeasterly winds will overspread
the region with showery conditions into the middle of next week.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Tuesday night)...

High pressure centered over the northern Bering Sea combined with
a broad low pressure in the Gulf are driving a light northerly,
offshore flow across Southwest Alaska this morning. Weather
conditions across much of Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea are
dry under the influence of the offshore flow and waning effects of
the Gulf low, with the exception of some light snow showers
continuing along the Western Alaska Range. Across the Kuskokwim
Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley, stratus cloud cover is keeping
temperatures warmer than forecast, with temperatures generally
hovering around 20 degrees. To the southwest of this ridge, a
storm force low is centered just south of Attu, pushing its front
into the western Bering Sea and across the central Aleutians. Wind gusts
approached 65 mph in Adak overnight, but will diminish through
the day today as the front works north and east into the Bering.

As early as this evening, a series of triple point lows are expected
to spin up along the front to the south of the Aleutian Chain,
locally enhancing winds as they cross the islands into the Bering
Sea through Monday night. These features are too small and
transient to pin down with precision, so this will be something
to monitor for forecast adjustments over the next two days. Low
level temperatures will stay warm enough for most of the Aleutians
to see rain close to sea level along this boundary through
Monday. The Pribilof Islands could see a period of snow on the
leading edge of the precipitation shield as it moves up into the
Bering Sea on Monday, but temperatures warm quickly with the
arrival of the front, changing snow over to rain.

For Southwest Alaska, conditions are still on track to stay mostly
dry and cold through early next week. Temperatures will steadily
cool through tonight, dropping into the teens across the vast
majority of Southwest Alaska, with temperatures reaching near 10
degrees for interior locations. Increasing offshore winds will
tend to keep most places from cooling too rapidly as a result of
increased vertical mixing even as cloud cover is expected to
clear out by Monday. Northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph could
push windchill values below zero at times from late Sunday into
Monday. Temperatures will begin to slowly rebound from Monday to
Tuesday as flow turns more southeasterly and as the front tracking
across the Bering and Aleutians slowly approaches the coastline,
with coastal Bristol Bay returning to near freezing by Tuesday.
There appear to be increasing chances for precipitation heading
into mid-week, with the most likely areas to see periods of snow
or rain/snow mix along the Southwest coast as early as Monday
night. By Tuesday night, chances for light precipitation spread to
inland areas of Southwest Alaska.

CQ/AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Starting on Tuesday, a vertically stacked low and large cyclonic
circulation will be centered south of the Aleutians in a weakening
phase. Short-waves embedded within the circulation will track from
east to west from the western Gulf/Kodiak Island across the Alaska
Peninsula and Bristol Bay and continuing westward across the
southern Bering Sea. None of the features look particularly
strong, so would expect areas of precipitation and wind with
typical winter-time impacts. Precipitation-type will be mainly
rain, with Bristol Bay being the only location cold enough to see
snow. The upper low will open up into a trough by Thursday
(Thanksgiving), causing winds and precipitation to diminish.

Meanwhile, a strong ridge in the Arctic will build southward over
the northern half of mainland Alaska. This looks far enough south
to block any short-waves from the Aleutian trough from reaching
interior SW AK or Southcentral AK. Thus, expect seasonably cool
and dry conditions for these areas Tuesday through Wednesday. A
short-wave will dig down the east side of the ridge on Wednesday,
across the Yukon and into the Copper River Basin. This will bring
marginally colder temperatures, though accompanying cloud cover
will likely limit temperature drops. This trough will force the
upper ridge to retreat back northward and allow a short-wave
trough to approach Southcentral on Thursday. Model agreement with
this feature is not great, but ensembles generally support this
idea. With a cold air mass in place over Southcentral, the most
likely outcome would be widespread light snow arriving sometime
Thanksgiving Day.

As we continue to Friday into Saturday, model guidance is in
excellent agreement on amplification of the upper level flow and
development of an Atmospheric River. However, as would be expected
this far out in time, there is large spread in the location of
the ridge/trough and track of a leading surface low from the
Pacific. This evolving pattern does have good potential to bring
higher impact weather to southern Alaska, with strong winds, mixed
precipitation-types, and warming temperatures. Stay tuned as we
monitor the location of key features and identify the areas where
the greatest impacts are most likely.

-SEB/AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog continues to undoubtedly be the challenge this morning
over the terminal. Fog, and associated IFR to LIFR conditions are
expected to remain over the terminal through late morning to
early afternoon before eroding, which may lead to a return to VFR
conditions. Fog, and IFR to LIFR conditions are possible once
again this evening and overnight as flow remains both weak aloft
and at the surface. An inversion near the surface will also help
low-level moisture to be locked in at the surface further aiding
to the ingredients for fog development.

&&


$$