461
FXAK68 PAFC 171348
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 AM AKST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A surface warm front associated with a deep low near Nunivak
Island is currently in Prince William Sound. Aloft, a negatively
tilted shortwave lags behind the main surface front. The
combination of these features will bring a brief period of snow
to Anchorage early this morning, followed by the Mat-Su Valleys
later this morning into early this afternoon. So far the radar
presentation of the system is unimpressive and indicates the upper
level feature is moving through much faster than anticipated
yesterday. There are showers on the backside of this initial front
however, so snow totals may still stack up to be a few inches for
the Cook Inlet areas north through Anchorage and the Mat-Su.

Coastal areas will receive more or less continuous precipitation
over the coming days, but there should be a brief break later this
morning following frontal passage and before showers develop.
With the front now in the Sound, temperatures through Turnagain
Arm have shot up into the mid-30s with rain being observed on the
Seward Highway and through Portage. Winter Weather Advisories
remain in effect for the Interior Kenai Peninsula, Girdwood,
Portage, Turnagain Pass and Whittier; however, now they
incorporate mixed precipitation and slushy to icy conditions on
the highways. Areas less affected by the wind (Girdwood proper)
and at higher elevations are more likely to remain snow. Valdez
will also be a tricky forecast, with any southerly wind coming
through the narrows possibly causing a mix with rain, but overall
conditions and the ambient cold airmass support up to a foot of
snow by Tuesday morning.

The forecast from Tuesday onward devolves into chaos as a
multitude of features aloft move overhead with no well defined
surface fronts or areas of low pressure until Wednesday. The main
sensible weather for Tuesday will be snow showers, which should
they train over an area lead to a quick couple of inches. The main
synoptic drivers consist of the occluding low near Nunivak Island
that will slowly move north into the Bering Strait, a broad
complex low/through that will move east across the Bering through
the forecast period, and a broadening low in the north Pacific
that will eventually make its way into the eastern Gulf by
Wednesday. The combination of these features will gradually
amplify the pattern and create generally southwest flow aloft. The
southerly input will slowly replace the cold airmass with a
warmer one, which will increase the chance for mixed or warm
precipitation types by Thursday throughout most of Southcentral.
All in all, the pattern will become increasingly active, with a
slowly warming airmass. Precipitation chances will remain high
through the week, so stay tuned to the forecast for more
information on timing, magnitude and precipitation type as the
features gradually come into focus.

-CJ


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Today through Thursday morning)...

The strong and tightly wound up/compact low that gave blizzard
conditions to Nunivak Island and Nelson Island yesterday will
continue advancing northward to near St. Lawrence Island by
Tuesday morning. Southerly to southeasterly winds along the
mainland Southwest coast today will turn more southwesterly by
Tuesday. The strongest winds today will be felt along the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast and especially near Kipnuk where winds will
gust up to 40 mph at times. This stronger push of wind will also
bring elevated water levels with the 9 AM high tide. With that, a
Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for Kipnuk through Noon
AKST today.

Temperatures through much of today will be warm enough
for rain or rain/snow mix as they hover just above freezing.
However, cold air from Russia will be dragged southward by the
departing strong low to north and move into Southwest late tonight
and Tuesday. This will allow any rain over the Kuskokwim Delta and
Kuskokwim Delta Coast to turn to snow and for any rain across
Bristol Bay to mix with snow at times tonight into Tuesday. The
majority of moisture moving into Southwest off the Bering Sea, in
the wake of the strong low, will impact mostly the Kuskokwim
Delta and Kuskokwim Delta Coast Tuesday where a couple inches of
snowfall will be possible.

The next notable storm system moves into the western Bering
Tuesday morning as a front brings gusty southeast winds to the
Western Aleutians Tuesday morning along with moderate rain. The
front moves eastward across the Bering and Aleutians through
Wednesday morning as it makes it to the Pribilof Islands by then.
There is uncertainty with where a compact low pressure system
might spin up along this front during its journey east across the
Bering. This will have impacts on the wind field forecast across
the Bering as well as the precipitation forecast across the
Aleutians and Pribilof Islands.

The frontal system eventually tracks into the eastern Bering and
reaches the mainland Southwest coast by mid-Wednesday morning.
Strong southerly winds will accompany the front at the coast.
While precipitation may initially start as snow or rain/snow mix,
enough warm air may move into areas along the coast to change
precipitation over to rain. However, the level to which warmer
air works in is uncertain at this time due to timing differences
in when the parent low, which looks to be in the Bering between
the Pribilofs and St. Matthew Island Wednesday afternoon,
occludes. Yet another point of uncertainty will be the potential
for a stronger low to move into the southeastern Bering by
Wednesday night into Thursday. A northern solution would bring
more in the way of heavier precipitation across mainland Southwest
Wednesday night into Thursday while a southern solution, more
into the North Pacific, would keep the gusty winds and heavy
precipitation confined to the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. Stay tuned to forecast updates as the active pattern
looks to continue.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Broad upper level troughing will be present over the Bering Sea
by the start of the long term forecast period. Shortwaves rotating
around the base of the trough will allow for a strong surface low
to lift up toward Kodiak Island on Thursday shifting the main
trough axis east over mainland Alaska for Friday and Saturday.
Deterministic models vary greatly on the exact track of this
surface low, but it looks to direct a plume of deep moisture
toward the southern Alaska coast Thursday and Friday. Expect
moderate to heavy rain at sea level and heavy mountain snow for
the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and the north Gulf Coast.
Gale to storm-force winds will also be associated with this low in
the surrounding marine areas before it dissipates Friday night.
High pressure will build over the Aleutians through the weekend
and increase in amplitude as it marches over western mainland
Alaska by Monday. It will quickly be followed by upper level
troughing over the western Bering with deep southerly flow and
embedded surface lows locally enhancing winds and rain across the
western Aleutians.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A surface warm front is moving into Prince William Sound
this morning, with an upper level shortwave passing shortly
after. So far if this band of snow (as of 4am) is what the models
were depicting as the main band, and it is very much under-
performing. However, the radar is filling in over Cook Inlet and
an area of showers is developing. If they continue to progress
east, IFR conditions will likely develop around 18Z, but given the
current trends, this is becoming increasingly unlikely.

&&


$$