845
FXAK68 PAFC 101255
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 AM AKST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A ridge of high pressure remains over interior Southcentral this
morning as an upper-level trough and attendant weakening occluded
front move over Kodiak Island. The ridge will lift to the north
and east today as the upper-level trough moves over Cook Inlet. A
vigorous shortwave will round the base of the trough, spinning up
a surface low over the southern Gulf.

The retreating ridge has resulted in increased cloud cover over
Southcentral. The increased cloud cover has allowed temperatures
this morning to warm slightly from their overnight lows, with the
exception of the northern Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin.
The lower clouds and retreating ridge have also helped to erode
the widespread fog that many locations away from the coast were
dealing with yesterday. The trough has also resulted is a mix of
rain and snow across Kodiak Island overnight and a band of light
snow moving over the Southern Kenai Peninsula.

These areas of precipitation will halt their advance toward
Southcentral later this morning as the trough weakens and the more
potent shortwave and surface low move east into the eastern Gulf.
Gale-force winds wrapping around the low over the southern Gulf
will also diminish tonight as the low tracks east.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will move over Southcentral in the
wake of the exiting low as the aforementioned ridge builds back
across the region. This ridge, combined with colder air moving in
and lingering surface trough over the northern Gulf and Prince
William Sound, will allow for a return of gap winds for the
typical locations along the immediate coast. These winds will
likely peak late tonight through Tuesday afternoon before slowly
diminishing. Wind gusts map approach 40 mph for Seward and Valdez
and near 50 mph for Whittier and through Thompson Pass.

The trough in the northern Gulf may bring some snow showers to
Cordova by early Wednesday. Otherwise, expect generally clear and
cold conditions, with some high clouds and areas of fog, for much
of Southcentral by midweek.

-TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A weakening low over Nunivak Island will continue to produce light
lingering snow showers over Southwest Alaska over the next couple
of days. No significant snow accumulations are expected. Areas of
patchy fog and low stratus are also expected near Dillingham and
Togiak tonight. A separate low in the northern Bering Sea is
bringing a swath of gusty westerly winds to the Central and
Eastern Aleutians and the southern Alaska Peninsula today that
will diminish though late this evening. Conditions in the Bering
are expected to improve as the low moves southeast and weakens. A
ridge builds behind into the Western Aleutians, so lower chances
for precipitation and lower wind speeds are expected.

Another frontal system moves into the Bering from the west late
tonight. A line of precipitation and corridor of storm force
winds will moves over the Western Aleutians Tuesday morning,
fizzling to gales by Tuesday afternoon. The front tracks east and
weakens to small craft, reaching the Pribilof Islands and the
Eastern Aleutians by Wednesday morning. The frontal system will
reach the mainland by Wednesday afternoon, allowing for some
snowfall. Behind the front is warm air advection and weak flow,
which means light winds and showery precipitation in the Bering.


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Over the second half of next week a western Bering trough will
slide across the Aleutians Thursday into Friday, eventually
crossing over into the Gulf of Alaska by Saturday. Gusty westerly
winds from small craft to gales are anticipated from Adak to
Unalaska with what looks to be minimal impacts at this time. The
bigger story will entail a North Pacific low lifting into the
Western and Central Aleutians over the weekend. Deterministic
models and ensemble guidance are loosely in agreement with
bringing a ~940 to sub 940 mb low across the Aleutians into the
Bering Saturday into Sunday. While confidence in the track and
intensity are extremely low, impacts from the forecast low`s track
would include strong winds, potentially high winds, Saturday and
Sunday over the Western and Central Aleutians.

For Southwest and Southcentral Alaska, seasonably cool
temperatures are forecast. The passage of one or two weaker
troughs through interior Alaska will support above normal chances
for precipitation.

BL


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Low stratus and fog are trending towards mixing out this
morning as increasing north winds and upper level clouds help to
prevent the lower atmosphere from staying cool and fully
saturated. Thus, while periods of IFR/LIFR in fog remain possible
for a few more hours this morning, expect predominantly VFR
conditions to return for most of today. Northerly winds at the
surface will stay light at around 5 kts or so through this
afternoon. There will be a chance for fog and low stratus to
redevelop late tonight into Tuesday morning as winds become calm
and as upper level clouds clear out once again.

&&


$$