903
FXAK68 PAFC 060046
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 PM AKDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An unsettled pattern continues to take shape across much of the
forecast area this afternoon. The upper level pattern is
continuing amplify compared to yesterday as a deep, negatively-
tilted trough begins to enter the western Gulf as it runs up
against a stout longwave ridge centered over Northwest Canada. An
intense shortwave rounding the base of the trough has helped spin
up a gale force low near the Alaska Peninsula. An occluding front
extending from the low is already making rapid headway northeast,
currently sending a band of heavy rain showers across Kodiak
Island that is progressing quickly north towards the Cook Inlet
and Kenai Peninsula. Across the rest of Southcentral, bands of
rain showers are moving north within a belt of strong south to
southeast flow in between the approaching trough and upstream
ridge.

From tonight into Monday, the shortwave trough now approaching
Kodiak Island will lift rapidly northeast and become a closed off
upper level low as it heads into Southcentral. Before the low
arrives, a quick shot of locally heavy rain will move north along
the low`s front, speeding past the Kenai Peninsula, Prince
William Sound and Mat-Su Valleys from this evening into early
Monday morning. Farther south, a new low will spin up somewhere
just to the south of the Kenai Peninsula on Monday morning, then
drift towards Middleton Island by Monday evening. A combination of
rapid pressure rises and cold air advection behind the
front/trough passage will also support rather strong and gusty
westerly winds developing tonight and persisting into Monday
across Kodiak Island, Shelikof Strait and near the Barren Islands.
Winds blowing through the Kamishak Gap could also briefly extend
into Kachemak Bay, most likely during the afternoon and evening
hours on Monday. Otherwise, periods of steady rain will give way
to widespread showers behind the front as the complex upper low
moves overhead through Monday evening.

For Tuesday, conditions will quiet back down and begin to dry out
temporarily as a strong North Pacific ridge builds quickly back
into the southern Mainland and as the upper low exits to the east.
A powerful Bering low and trailing frontal system out west will
begin to flatten out the ridge by Wednesday morning as moisture
associated with an atmospheric river following ahead of the front
begins to spill across the Alaska Range into northern parts of
Southcentral. The low heading up towards the North Slope
contrasting with the strong high extending over the Gulf will
induce a strong south-north pressure gradient across the outlook
area as well, resulting in strong and gusty gap winds blowing into
Anchorage, the Mat Valley and Copper River Basin for most of the
day on Wednesday. The increasing moisture coupled with strong
southwest flow aloft will help rain redevelop through Wednesday
evening, primarily over parts of the Chugach and Talkeetna
Mountains where terrain provides forced lift.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...


*** Coastal Flood Watch for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak
 Island from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning.


Rain showers persist into the overnight hours for the region as
multiple shortwaves progress eastward. Strong southwest wind flow
into the Upper Kuskokwim Delta early this week will result in
widespread coastal impacts through Wednesday.

Today`s Bering Sea low that brought rain and strong winds from
the Eastern Aleutians to the Bristol Bay coastline continues
to move through the lower Kuskokwim Delta. Widespread northwest
wind gusts to 55 mph were recorded in the portions of the Eastern
Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula today. Rain showers and strong
winds will dissipate through the overnight hours as weak ridging
moves overhead. This ridging is replaced by zonal flow tomorrow
afternoon and back to a more southwest flow overnight into
Tuesday.

Monday evening through Wednesday: A 978 mb Kamchatka low just
north of Shemya tomorrow afternoon moves northwest of St. Matthew
Island and deepens to 962 mb by Wednesday evening. Simultaneously,
a North Pacific 1038 mb high intensifies to 1040 mb as it slowly
moves eastward Wednesday evening. These two systems will cause
persistent southwest flow from Adak to Unalaska northeastward to
the Pribilof Islands and Nunivak island Monday evening through
Tuesday morning. Heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected
during this time for these area. Gale to storm force winds are
expected from west of Unalaska to the Pribilof Islands. Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning, this area of strong southwest
winds shift to area between Toksook Bay and Quinhagak. Onshore
flow during this time will result in coastal impacts. Wind gusts
reaching 50 knots, wave heights from 8 to 12 feet are expected
during this time period. A wave of moisture from this southwest
atmospheric river wind flow brings a period of heavy rain to the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Gale to storm force
winds in the Bering Sea and Aleutians gaps and passes remain
likely overnight into Wednesday, too.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

High pressure ridging will push into Southcentral Alaska by mid-
week, bringing drier conditions for low elevation areas with
chances for light precipitation along the mountain tops through
the end of the week. A weakening front stretching across the
western half of the state, will help develop low pressure that
will bring rains back into the region this weekend.

Multiple fronts are expected to move across the Bering Sea into
Southwest Alaska through the end of the week and into this
weekend pulling abundant amounts of moisture from the North
Pacific. Moderate-to-heavy precipitation and gusty winds are
expected across the Aleutian Islands and coastal Southwest Alaska.
Precipitation is expected to spill further inland across Southwest
as the front(s) move onshore. Continued unseasonably warm and wet
weather will continue through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light north to northwesterly winds will persist through
about 06-08Z as the Turnagain Arm winds bend down Cook Inlet. A
low lifting over the area overnight will then allow for winds
bending into the terminal at times with gusts of 20 to 25 kts
through 18Z Mon before weakening. Ceilings and visibility will
remain mostly VFR but periods of MVFR may mix in as the low moves
through. The terminal may see a brief break in rain showers before
the next round moves in later tonight with occasional light
showers lingering through Tues afternoon/evening.


&&


$$