424
FXAK68 PAFC 020309
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
709 PM AKDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The forecast is on track as a frontal system continues to track
east into Southcentral Alaska today. Gusty winds through Turnagain
Arm and across the Copper River Valley will continue to ramp up
through the afternoon and evening as the front progresses eastward
and a new surface low spins up near Southern Cook Inlet and moves
north.

The strong south to southwest flow along the front and upper-
level trough will allow precipitation to fill in over Cook Inlet
and the Matanuska Valley this afternoon, with the heaviest
precipitation across the upslope areas of the northern Susitna
Valley, Hatcher Pass, and Kenai and Chugach Mountains. Kodiak City
may have showers, but the prevailing flow pattern will be
favorable for some downsloping into town. Snow levels will rise to
around 3,500 ft to 3,800 ft by this afternoon. Thus, any snow
accumulation will be confined to the mountains as well as the
northern half of Broad Pass and the extreme northern and western
Copper River Basin.

As the upper-level wave drives into Southwest Alaska this
afternoon, a new surface low will spin up near southern Cook
Inlet and drive north over the inlet through Thursday morning.
This new system, along with its upper-level support, stout
moisture advection and southerly winds aloft, will drive ample
moisture and precipitation into the northern Susitna Valley,
Talkeetna Mountains, Prince William Sound, and Chugach Mountains
through late Thursday. Upwards for an inch or more of rain is
possible around Talkeetna with less than an inch from Kenai to
Anchorage and Palmer. Closer to 2 to 3 inches of rain is likely
from Valdez to Cordova, with locally higher amounts at elevation.

For locations that do see cooler temperatures and snow potential,
light accumulations, on the order of 1 to 2 inches, is possible
for Paxson, Eureka, and Broad Pass with higher amounts along
portions of the Denali Highway. 5 to 10 inches of snow could fall
at Summit Lake in Hatcher Pass.

As this low dissipates and a secondary surface low spins up over
Prince William Sound, the southerly gap winds, with gusts around
30 mph for parts of Anchorage, the Matanuska Valley, Copper River
Valley, and Seward will quickly diminish then become more
northerly as colder air moves in behind the low. Westerly and
northerly gap winds are then expected for Whittier and Seward,
respectively, by Thursday afternoon and lingering into Friday as
precipitation quickly comes to an end from west to east.

Light snow will likely return to the northern Susitna Valley,
especially through Broad Pass, by Friday as a trough moves from
the eastern Bering over the Alaska Range.

-TM/Rux

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIANS
(This afternoon through Saturday)...

Two lows will continue to bring rain to the Mainland, the Alaska
Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians into Thursday. A separate,
stronger low moves across the Bering Sea this weekend.

A front from a low currently southwest of Cold Bay continues to
bring rain from the Eastern Aleutians through Dillingham and
eastward to Iliamna this afternoon. Rainfall totals across this
region from 5am to 4pm today range from 0.10" to 0.50"; highest
over the King Salmon-Dillingham-Iliamna area. The rainfall will
taper off late this evening. Winds in the Aleutian gaps and passes
increase overnight through tomorrow morning as cooler air filters
southward. Separately, a more compact low will continue to bring
rainfall to the northern Kuskokwim- Delta Region through the
overnight hours. A band of heavier rain arrives mid- evening to
this area and continues through the early overnight hours before
ending. Scattered rain showers will persist into late tomorrow
morning. For the Alaska Peninsula, winds through the gaps and
passes increase tomorrow morning through the afternoon. Weak zonal
flow sets up tomorrow evening ahead of a fast-moving ridge of
high pressure arrives Friday. Another low expected for the
weekend.

A 980mb low moves northeastward from the Pacific Ocean Friday
morning and crosses the Aleutians west of Adak Friday afternoon
before working its way west of St. Paul and eventually toward the
Bering Strait Saturday. This storm deepens during its northeast
movement through the Bering Sea to 975mb Saturday. Current
guidance brings southerly to southwesterly flow into the Mainland
from the Kuskokwim Bay to Kipnuk Saturday morning into Sunday.
Therefore, confidence remains moderate that coastal impacts from
this storm could occur.


-Johnston

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through
Wednesday)...

An amplified pattern will be in place on Sunday with a broad
trough over the Bering, extending well south of the Aleutians, and
high pressure located over the Gulf of Alaska. Deterministic and
ensemble guidance take the trough eastward into the Gulf of Alaska
early next week on Monday, as multiple shortwaves work to break
down high pressure over the Gulf. Initially, this should result in
unsettled weather for the Bering and Southwest Alaska, with
scattered showers and areas of gusty southerly winds into
Southwest Coast. Unsettled weather will shift eastward into
Southcentral with the passage of the trough on Monday. Southerly
upslope flow into the coastal mountains will result in potential
for heavier rain into Prince William Sound, while southwest flow
will bring moisture up Cook Inlet with additional showers. High
pressure attempts to build back over the Bering on Tuesday, but
model consensus is in good agreement with the arrival and
deepening of a large western Bering low Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This feature at the end of the long term forecast
period could bring high winds to the Aleutians or Pribilof
Islands, depending on how strong the low is and its exact track.
How forecast models resolve the deepening low the next several
days will be worth keeping an eye on.

BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A front moving through the area will bring steady rain into
Thursday morning and then taper off. Conditions may lower into
MVFR especially ceilings overnight after the winds diminish some
around midnight. Southeasterly winds with gusts of around 25 kt
can be expected, though a brief gust up to 30 to 35 kt is possible
this afternoon though the evening. The front should pass through
the area Thursday morning with VFR conditions and southerly winds expected
from Thursday morning onward.

&&

$$