830
FXAK68 PAFC 101341
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
541 AM AKDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

Please see the Southwest Alaska section below for information
regarding Typhoon Halong.

For Southcentral:

Mostly tranquil weather is under way across Southcentral Alaska.
GOES water vapor imagery shows the low that brought some rain and
higher-elevation snow to portions of the area has now pushed into
SE AK. In its wake, mostly clear skies grace much of the area as
evident in VIIRS nighttime microphysics imagery. Some patchy fog
has managed to develop in just a few isolated locations as of 4am.
The gusty gulfward gap winds that defined yesterday continue to
abate.

As we progress into the day, another rather pleasant October day
is forecast for much of Southcentral AK underneath a building
ridge aloft. Subtle shortwave activity amid northwest flow aloft
will just grace the AK Range today, with some light precip
(mostly snow) possible for approximately the Denali Hwy corridor
from Broad to Summit Lake / Isabel Pass. Elsewhere, mostly clear
skies, light winds, and temps near the climatological norms are on
deck.

By tonight, attention turns towards a front pushing into the
western Gulf of Alaska that will first bring precip to Kodiak
Island and then into the Kenai Peninsula by Saturday morning.
There`s some uncertainty with how far north precip will make it on
Saturday before the disturbance shifts southeast on the
downstream side of the ridge axis. The bulk of the rain with this
first wave is expected to remain south of Turnagain Arm.

Another front and much stronger system will then move into
Southcentral by late Saturday amid deep southwest flow. A
strengthening pressure gradient will yield strong inland gap
winds through Turnagain Arm and elsewhere. Higher elevations
across the Chugach are likely to see winds well over 50 mph,
including the upper Anchorage Hillside. There`s some uncertainty
with how much wind will make it into town. A strong down-inlet
pressure gradient will keep wind out of Anchorage initially,
before winds bend back northward sometime on Sunday.

Just about all of the area will receive between a quarter inch
and inch of precipitation, save for the central Copper River Basin
and northeast towards Mentasta Pass. Snow levels will quickly
rise everywhere with this weekend system thanks to strong warm air
advection. Some places across the higher elevations such as
Hatcher Pass and Thompson Pass to the southern slopes of the AK
range may see some brief snow before changing over to rain.

-Brown

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday night)...

Key messages:

 - A Storm force front will reach the Southwest coast as a
   weakening gale force front Friday evening. The threat for
   coastal flooding along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast for this first
   storm remains low.

 - The extratropical remnants of Typhoon Halong will cross the
   Aleutians into the Bering Sea Saturday evening into Sunday,
   becoming a powerful Hurricane force low as it heads towards
   Saint Matthew Island on Sunday.

 - High Wind Watches have been issued for the Pribilof Islands
   and the Kuskokwim Delta Coast for late Saturday into Sunday.
   Peak wind gusts ranging from 60 to 80 mph are possible.

 - A Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the Kuskokwim Delta
   Coast and Nunivak Island for late Saturday night through Sunday
   evening. Water levels are expected to peak with the high tide
   cycle on Sunday morning.

Discussion:

A high end Gale to Storm force front approaching the Pribilof
Islands this morning will continue to bring gusty southerly winds
and rain to the Pribilofs, Eastern Aleutians, and AKPen throughout
the day today as it progresses eastward. Ahead of the front, an
upper level ridge centered over Southwest Alaska has brought calm
conditions and mainly clear skies overnight into this morning,
allowing for patchy fog to develop and temperatures to drop into
the low to mid 30s across the Southwest mainland.

The aforementioned storm force front advancing across the Bering
Sea and Aleutians will continue to weaken to gale force as it does
so, with the exception of a small pocket of Storm force winds
moving near Saint Matthew. Gale force winds will become more
southwesterly behind the frontal passage across the western Bering
and Aleutians near the parent low drifting up past Kamchatka
through Friday night. Meanwhile, the front will begin to weaken
more rapidly as it approaches the Southwest Coast late on Friday
night and as steady rainfall along the boundary heads into
interior Southwest. The potential for coastal flooding and erosion
continues to look very minor with the arrival of this next front.

From there, all eyes shift to the remnants of tropical Typhoon
Halong that is slated to begin to impact the region by Saturday
afternoon as it lifts north across the Aleutians into the Bering.
Halong will reach the Aleutian Chain in a more weakened state on
Saturday morning as it curves north around the slowly filling
Kamchatka low to the west. However, there is increasing model
agreement that the low will interact favorably with an upper level
jet streak and shortwave trough lifting into the Bering around
the same time. Halong`s remnant center will re- intensify rapidly
as it heads nearly due north from Saturday into Saturday night,
becoming a Hurricane force low as it reaches peak intensity early
Sunday as it passes over or very close to Saint Matthew Island.
Seas will build quickly near the swath of Hurricane force winds,
with waves of 25 to 35 feet or higher possible, particularly on
Sunday morning across waters between the Pribilof Islands and
Saint Matthew. Wind gusts of up to 80 mph will be possible across
the Pribilof Islands as the center passes to the northwest, most
likely during the early Sunday morning period as the core of
Hurricane force winds passes just to the north.

Later on Sunday, Halong will continue to move quickly north,
reaching Saint Lawrence Island sometime during the afternoon.
Strong and gusty southwest winds will shift into the Southwest
coast, particularly across parts of the Kuskokwim Delta. Inland
areas of the Kuskokwim Delta will likely see winds gusting as high
as 50 to 60 mph, while areas along the coast north of Kipnuk and
across Nunivak Island could see gusts as strong as 75 mph from
Sunday morning into Sunday evening. The strong onshore winds will
likely cause areas of coastal flooding and erosion along the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast, with current indication suggesting water
levels will peak at very similar or potentially greater values to
what most communities observed during the recent storm system
earlier this week. Thus, a Coastal Flood Watch has been issued for
the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island from late Saturday
night through Sunday evening. While overall forecast confidence
for this system continues to improve, there is still some
uncertainty for the exact timing of strong winds, high waves and
potential coastal flooding. Stay tuned for updates as we continue
to monitor this significant fall storm system.

-JH/AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The long term forecast in Southcentral begins with lingering
rainfall from a front that pushes into the region on Sunday. Most
rainfall will be seen in the Prince William Sound region and the
Copper River Basin. Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valley could also see
some lingering rainfall until Monday evening. Tuesday sees a ridge
move into the Gulf, decreasing rain chances and wind speeds. By
Tuesday night/early morning Wednesday, troughing and a front will
arrive in the Gulf, once again increasing rain chances and wind
speeds. Gusty gap winds will be possible with this front,
especially around the Barrier Islands and south of Kodiak Island.
Later, the core of winds may move into Prince William Sound. This
could drive up winds speeds in Anchorage as well, but exact wind
direction will play a role, so it remains to be seen which
scenario plays out. By Wednesday evening, the front will move east
and wind speeds will decrease. Rain chances will remain elevated
for the coastal regions of Southcentral while inland areas will
have less chances for rain. Quasi-zonal flow on Thursday will
allow for lower winds speeds and low rain chances.

Once again, the main action happens in Southwest Alaska. The tail
end of the powerful low associated with the remnants of Typhoon
Halong will still be affecting Nunivak Island with gale force
southerly winds until the afternoon. By Monday morning, a weak
ridge will build into the Bering, giving them a short break in
strong winds and heavy rain before the next system arrives
shortly. The next low pushes into the Western Aleutians by Monday
afternoon and brings gale to storm force winds. Much uncertainty
remains on the exact track, strength, and size of this low, but
the current thinking is that this low will be on the larger side
and will storm force winds impacting the Aleutian Islands and the
Pribilof Islands. It also has the potential to drive gusty
southerly winds into the Kuskokwim Delta coast and increase water
levels. It is too early to say if coastal flooding will be an
issue for communities along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast, so continue
to monitor the forecast for updates. Heavy rainfall is also
likely with this low and will move into the Southwest Mainland by
Tuesday. The low will push onshore by Wednesday and will continue
to bring gusty winds and rains to the mainland. Quasi-zonal flow
sets up on Thursday, allowing winds to calm down and rain chances
to slowly drop off. More lows may arrive afterwards as the pattern
seems to remain the same throughout next week.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds
are expected to be light and southerly from 12-18z and shift to
light and northerly to north-northeasterly after 0z.

-AM

&&


$$