309
FXAK68 PAFC 091328
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 AM AKST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper-level trough continues to slide east toward Yakutat this
morning as a ridge of high pressure builds across Southcentral.
Lingering low-level moisture trapped underneath the building
ridge, coupled with weak winds in the boundary layer, have
resulted in widespread fog and low stratus across the Copper River
Basin west to the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and Mat-Su
Valleys. The fog is particularly dense across the Anchorage Bowl
and Matanuska Valley where a Dense Fog Advisory remains in place
through late this morning. Fog will remain the forecast challenge
through the next 24 hours for these same locations as the overall
synoptic pattern stagnates before the next storm system moves into
the Gulf. While the fog may lift and erode in some places later
this morning into the afternoon, the fog is likely to settle back
in this evening and linger into Monday morning.

The ridge has also ushered in a cold airmass with some of the
coldest temperatures of the season thus far, especially in
locations away from the fog and low cloud cover. Overnight low
temperatures in the Northern Susitna Valley have fallen into the
single digits with a few spots in the northern Copper River Basin
approaching ten below zero.

Northerly gap winds are on the increase this morning in the
typical locations, due to a strengthening pressure gradient
between the ridge and trough of low pressure extending from a
surface low near the Alaska Peninsula into Prince William Sound.
Locations such as Thompson Pass and Whittier could see periods of
blowing snow through this evening due to the gusty winds and
recent snowfall.

The next low to move into the western Gulf of Alaska is expected
later Sunday. Run to run model consistency is still somewhat poor,
but overall continues to track the low and its front south enough
through the central Gulf to mainly focus precipitation for Kodiak
Island and the immediate coastal around Prince William Sound.
Gale force winds with some embedded storm-force gusts appear
likely near the low and along the front. Precipitation type for
Kodiak may begin as snow later Sunday afternoon/evening, but then
transition towards rain by early Monday morning. If enough cold
air hold on along the coast, Kodiak City could see and inch or two
of snow with slightly higher amounts west of the city.

TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A strong front pushes against the Southwest Coast this morning,
bringing gusty winds and snow. Areas of blowing snow are expected
along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Western Capes this morning and
early afternoon, with up to 4 inches of accumulated snowfall
possible and visibility reductions to one half mile or less. Behind
the front, light waves of showery precip will move over the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast through tomorrow night. Light to moderate
precipitation and gusty southerly winds will also be present
through favored gaps and passes of the Alaska Peninsula tonight.

Another strong front moves into the western Bering Sea late Monday
night, bringing another (slightly weaker) round of gale to storm
force winds and precipitation to the Western Aleutians. The front
is expected to progress eastward through at least mid week,
weakening as it travels. Gales are likely to hold on as far as
the Pribilof Islands before weakening to small craft as they push
towards the Southwest Coast.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The main feature to begin the long term period is a broad
longwave trough over the Bering Sea and a large vertically stacked
low slowly moving along the coast of Kamchatka. Its strong high-
end gale to storm force front moving across the western and
central Aleutians early next week will begin to weaken by midweek
as it reaches the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Bering Sea. The
front pushes into the Southwest Alaska coast and inland Wednesday
into Thursday, spreading light snow across much of Southwest
Alaska. As warmer air pushes in behind the front, a transition to
a rain/snow mix along the coast will be possible.

Downstream of the system in the Bering, upper level ridging over
Southcentral looks to keep the weather relatively quiet to begin
the period. Models are hinting at a weak low spinning up in the
northern Gulf for Wednesday into Thursday, though confidence
remains low at this time on exact timing and placement. This
system will bring the potential for snowfall to the northern Gulf
coast as well as portions of inland Southcentral as what is left
of the front pushing across Southwest Alaska reaches Southcentral
and provides additional upper level support. Model agreement
continues to improve on a stronger low lifting out of the North
Pacific and tracking towards the eastern Aleutians and AKPen by
Friday. Widespread precipitation and gusty winds are expected to
accompany this low for the eastern Aleutians, AKPen, and Kodiak
Island as it continues into the Gulf for next weekend. Farther
west, yet another low and frontal system enters the western Bering
by the beginning of next weekend, bringing another round of
precipitation and elevated winds for the western Aleutians.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...LIFR to IFR conditions have continued overnight into this
morning in widespread fog streaming into Anchorage from the Mat
Valley and Knik Arm. IFR conditions will likely continue through
the rest of the morning as fog continues to move over the
terminal. Fog could lift to a low stratus deck and lead to
temporary improvement to MVFR ceilings and VFR visibility during
the afternoon. However, stratus will likely lower back into fog
again after sunset, bringing a potential return to IFR conditions
or lower through the overnight tonight. Light winds will persist
through the TAF period.

&&


$$