586
FXAK68 PAFC 241307
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
407 AM AKST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

IR satellite imagery from early this morning shows the low that
has been in the central Gulf the past two days has moved eastward
along with its shower activity. There are a few showers still
rotating around the low in the western Gulf that could move
across Kodiak today, but other than that, this low is becoming
less of a factor in the weather over Southcentral. Mid and high
level clouds associated with a weak upper level low can be seen
over southern Cook Inlet, but these clouds will dissipate as that
low continues its journey westward. Other than that, weak ridging
aloft is keeping most of Southcentral clear this morning. Most of
Southcentral, but not all of it. Fog-fest 2025 is entering its
third day for the Anchorage bowl and the big question is if today
will be the day it finally dissipates and the fog party ends. What
is different about today compared to the past two days is that
there is definite colder and drier air finally moving far enough
south down the Susitna Valley to begin eroding this persistent fog
bank. Temperatures and dew points from Talkeetna to Wasilla are
running 5 to 10 degrees colder than the same time last night. This
is already eroding the western edge of the fog bank as can be
seen on the nighttime microphysics satellite imagery. The fog bank
remains over the Anchorage Bowl, but ends abruptly just west of
the Anchorage airport. This is less widespread than last night,
though it does extend southward past the Kenai and Soldotna areas
this morning. The same thinking goes for the western Kenai
Peninsula: The drier air should erode out most of the fog as the
day progresses. We shall see.

The next front moves into the western Gulf later tomorrow with
increasing easterly winds into Kodiak Island tonight. Current
thinking is that these winds will expand in coverage across the
Gulf, with small craft winds covering much of the Gulf by Tuesday
morning. The strongest winds will be through the Barren Islands
and into Kamishak Bay, with easterly gusts as high as 35 knots.
This front over the western Gulf will push into the northern Gulf
coast on Wednesday with precipitation chances returning to
coastal mountains and Prince William Sound.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A large scale pattern stretches from northeastern Russia into the
northern Pacific, with multiple surface lows embedded within the
elongated trough. This setup will support relatively strong
easterly flow across much of the Bering Sea through early this
week. Flow along the Aleutian Chain is expected to be more
variable as the lows move over them. Overall, anticipate small
craft to gale force winds through Tuesday morning for both the
Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain, including the Pribilof Islands,
and precipitation to continue.

For Southwest Alaska, flow remains primarily offshore, promoting a
drier, colder pattern across the region. Temperatures further
inland will be in the teens, with localized areas into the single
digits in the lower Kuskokwim Valley, during the daytime hours.
Overnight, the aforementioned areas can expect temperatures in the
low teens or single digits. Coastal areas of Bristol Bay will be
warmer with daytime temperatures in the upper 20`s to low 30`s
and overnight temperatures in the mid 20`s. Dry conditions are
expected to prevail until late Tuesday night into Wednesday, as an
inverted trough lifts up from Kodiak Island into Bristol Bay. A
warmer air mass will also move up with the arrival of this
feature, and surface temperatures could even poke up above
freezing across some parts of Bristol Bay on Wednesday. Areas of
light snow or rain/snow mix will develop along and ahead of the
incoming trough on Wednesday, mostly across Bristol Bay and the
northern AKPen. This looks like the beginnings of what could
become an abnormally warm and very active pattern towards the end
of this week that will be something to keep a close eye on in the
coming days.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

All attention in the long term should be paid to a likely
atmospheric river event that could span from the Eastern Aleutians
to as far east as the Cook Inlet region Friday and heading into
the weekend.

Diving into the knowns and unknowns, the upper level pattern
looks to become increasingly more amplified Friday morning as a
deep, longwave trough takes shape over the Bering, Aleutians, and
North Pacific with textbook difluent flow downstream over the
western Gulf and interior Southwest Alaska. An anomalously strong
500 mb ridge over Southcentral Alaska, Gulf, and North Pacific
becomes anchored over the weekend, forcing the storm track to
become more north to south, which would track lows from the North
Pacific to the Eastern Bering and northward up the western Alaska
coastline.

Model agreement has decreased since yesterday, but guidance shows
the semblance of a shortwave trough amid the mean upper flow
rotating over the North Pacific as the longwave tries to take a
negative tilt. This combination of forcing develops a surface low
somewhere across the North Pacific and sends it northward towards
the Aleutians and so on. However, location and timing of the low
is poor as of the latest runs of the global models.

Along with being a wet system with periods of heavy
precipitation, the possibility of strong winds are certainly there
depending on the strength of the surface low and its associated
front, though this parameter is of lower confidence. There is also
a question of how much warm air advection the system may bring
into Southwest Alaska, in which case rain and mixed p-types would
likely make for hazardous conditions considering its current
snow/ice cover.

Please stay tuned over the coming days as the forecast comes more
into focus.

-AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog and low stratus across the terminal, as with the last
couple of mornings and days, continues to be the challenge. Unlike
the last couple of days, there is more dry air just above the
surface with the saturated layer near the surface not being as
thick as the past two days. Therefore, fog could mix out at times
today into low stratus or even a low scattered deck. With that,
while IFR to LIFR conditions look to be predominant early this
morning, later in the morning to the afternoon offers better
chances for VFR. This evening into the overnight, an upper-level
shortwave will approach from the north and potentially offer up
some high-level clouds over the area which will help prevent
further radiational cooling. Another ingredient against the fog
case tonight would be greater dew point depressions of 4 to 6
degrees which indicates drier air at the surface. Thus, there are
greater chances for maintaining VFR conditions this evening and
overnight as opposed to this morning.

&&


$$