018
FXAK68 PAFC 070123
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Message: Weather continues to remain active across
Southcentral Alaska with the threats of snow, blowing snow, strong
winds, and dangerously low wind chills through the end of the
weekend. The cold airmass will be with us well beyond the end of
the short term.

...Active Warnings and Advisories...

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Northeast Kodiak
  Island, including Kodiak City, Ouzinkie, and Port Lions through
  3PM Sunday for 3 to 6 inches of snow and blowing snow. Winds
  gusting up to 50 mph are possible. Visibilities reduced to one
  half mile or less at times.

- A High Wind Warning remains in effect/has been extended for the
  Matanuska Valley through 1PM Monday for 35 to 55 mph winds with
  gusts up to 90 mph.

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect/has been extended for
  Anchorage and the NW Kenai Peninsula through 1PM Monday. North
  winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph expected. Strongest
  winds expected along the Knik Arm from Birchwood southwest,
  across North and West Anchorage, and along the coast of the
  northern Cook Inlet, including Kenai and Nikiski.

- A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Thompson Pass until 6AM
  Sunday for blizzard conditions and up to 1 inch of snow. Winds
  could gust as high as 60 mph.

- A Blizzard Warning remains in effect for Broad Pass, Richardson
  Highway from south of Isabel Pass to Paxson, and along the Tok
  Cutoff from Mentasta Pass to north of Gakona through 9PM Sunday
  due to blizzard conditions due to blowing snow with winds
  gusting to 50 mph. Wind chills dip as low as 15 to 25 degrees
  below zero, falling further to 25 to 40 degrees below zero by
  Sunday.

As of 3PM this afternoon, the Matanuska Valley has well exceeded
high wind criteria as advertised yesterday in the issuance of the
High Wind Warning. The highest gust recorded so far today for
Palmer is 84 mph at 9:53AM, with more strong wind gusts to come
through the rest of today and tomorrow. More than 20,000 people
across the Matanuska Valley are currently without power. A highly
amplified 500 mb pattern characterized by an arctic trough and
upper low and that has dug well southward over the Gulf along with
ridging across the northern Bering and points northward has led
to a powerful jet that has been screaming over the Matanuska
Valley, and is oriented in a way that the Glenn Highway, west
Anchorage, and the western fringes of the northwestern Kenai
Peninsula have been clipped by gusty winds as well. A low level
jet is also evident, mostly driven by a strong thermal/pressure
gradient at the surface, and thermal/thickness gradient aloft
between the Copper River Basin and the valleys to the west.
Blowing and drifting snow have also been observed in these areas
as well today, so much so that the Palmer ASOS has been
erroneously reporting light snow all day with clear skies. With
such windy conditions, temperatures are running about 5 degrees on
average warmer than guidance due to a well mixed boundary layer.
When winds finally begin to subside, the expectation is that
temperatures drop off as well.

At least for the short term, the forecast will be mainly tuned to
the remaining snowfall across the area, blowing snow, drainage
gap winds, and brutally cold air and wind chills. The arctic
airmass has fully engulfed Southcentral Alaska, with considerably
cold air making it all the way southward to the Gulf coast.
Looking at radar and surface observations, snow showers, wind, and
squalls have overspread the southern portions of Prince William
Sound, Cordova, and the Copper River Delta. This is due to a
compact surface low in the Gulf west of Middleton Island that has
aligned with upper level divergence from the aforementioned
trough, and shortwaves being ejected northward from the trough
envelope. It looks like this surface low will retrograde and
continue to drive westward and south of Prince William Sound
through this afternoon and then onward/southward to Kodiak Island.
There is a Winter Weather Advisory out for northern Kodiak Island
for 3 to 6 inches of snow and blowing snow. Visibilities reduced
to one half mile or less at times. Looking towards the end of the
short term, the overall synoptic pattern will remain fairly
steady-state in nature. General 500 mb troughing for much of
Alaska and ridging over the Bering means Southcentral will stay
cold and mostly dry for the foreseeable future, with gap winds
continuing for favorable locations.

-AM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday evening)...

The forecast remains unchanged with regards to the short-term
period. An exceptionally cold airmass continues to push in across
Southwest Alaska. In addition to cold temperatures, gusty
northerly winds will persist across Southwest through the rest of
the weekend and into next week. Strong winds in the Kuskokwim
Delta may loft snow on the ground from the previous weather event
from Kipnuk north and west and north and west of Bethel during the
weekend. Due to the threat of blowing snow, a Blizzard Warning is
in effect for the aforementioned regions. There is still some
uncertainty regarding the amount of transportable snow remaining
on the ground in those areas. Also, the very cold air will move
over considerably warmer ocean temperatures (30s), leading to
numerous snow showers over the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska
Peninsula today and the rest of the Aleutians Sunday. This,
combined with strong winds could lead to blowing snow and low
visibility. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the
Alaska Peninsula due to this potential for blowing snow. Another
threat with the cold and winds is wind chill. The Kuskokwim
regions could see wind chills 35F below zero for a period. Bristol
Bay will see wind chills from 20F to 30F below zero, especially
in the Dillingham region. A Wind Advisory as been issued for the
Dillingham area highlighting the gusty winds and wind chill threat
this weekend.

High pressure will set up over Southwest Alaska and most of the
Bering Sea/Aleutians early next week. This will keep the cold air
mass in place and set up drier conditions overall. Winds will
begin to slowly diminish through Monday as well. Some snow showers
may move across the Central Aleutians late Sunday night into
Monday morning as the Arctic trough responsible for the bitter
cold airmass moves into the North Pacific and interacts with a
North Pacific low south of the Chain. Models are hinting at the
next front/low combinations entering the Western Bering/Aleutians
Wednesday morning. The consensus as of now is for the front to
remain mostly confined to the Western Aleutians as the system
brings some rain across the area and some gale-force winds to the
marine areas of the Western Aleutians by late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

The long-term pattern continues to favor mostly cold and windy
conditions across the Southern Mainland Wednesday through
Saturday. Across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula
(AKPEN), a trough digs south over the Peninsula as a ridge builds
and amplifies northward through the Bering. As the trough crosses
the AKPEN Wednesday, northerly winds and wind gusts will be
enhanced in its wake as colder air advects in. Cold, windy, and
dry conditions also persist across Mainland through Saturday.
While the Central and Eastern Aleutians remain dry and under the
influence of ridging during the long-term period, the Western
Aleutians will be behind the ridge and under the influence of
warmer southerly to southeasterly winds. A series of weak fronts
may clip the Western Aleutians bringing light rain to the area
through the period, along with gale-froce winds across the marine
areas of the Western Aleutians. The pattern for Southcentral also
remains mostly the same with a series of Gulf lows lifting to the
central Gulf through the long-term which will help to pull winds
through the favored gaps and passes; especially Valdez Narrows,
Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, and the Matanuska Valley.
Moisture from the Gulf lows looks to mainly be confined to the
northern Gulf Coast Wednesday and Thursday as the interior remains
cold, dry, and windy at times.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions along with strong northerly winds and gusts will
persist through Sunday. Wind speeds and gusts will likely diminish
slightly from their peaks (gusts to 40 to 55 mph) earlier today.
However, another round of winds and gusts of similar strength are
expected by mid-morning Sunday. The strong winds will likely
allow localized drifting and blowing snow to continue.

&&

$$