811
FXAK68 PAFC 170148
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 PM AKST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Wednesday)...

A significant pattern change is underway across Southcentral this
afternoon as the prolonged period of below average temperatures,
high pressure and clear skies comes to an end, while a much
warmer, unsettled and wet/snowy pattern takes shape. A front
extending from a strong low moving off the coast of the Kuskokwim
Delta is now moving up from the western Gulf and Kodiak into the
Kenai Peninsula and Cook Inlet region. Radar returns are already
showing a band of light to moderate snow moving up from Homer into
Kenai and Soldotna, and this band should move up into Anchorage
and parts of the Mat-Su over the next few hours. Farther east, an
upper ridge is shifting off towards the AlCan border from the
Copper Basin, where upper level cloud cover is already increasing
ahead of the incoming system to the southwest. Temperatures in
general are beginning as steady warming trend across most of the
outlook area, though some spots such as Willow and Gulkana are
still holding on to temperatures hovering near zero.

By later tonight, strong southeasterly and cross-barrier flow
developing along and ahead of the front will shut snow back off
temporarily in the lee of the mountains from parts of the
northern Kenai Peninsula out to Anchorage. Meanwhile, steady snow
will overspread much of the greater Prince William Sound and
eastern Kenai Peninsula, particularly close to and over the
coastal mountains. On Monday morning, a negatively tilted trough
lifting up from the northern Gulf will amplify as it approaches
the Kenai Peninsula and help induce the development of a triple
point low along the front near or just to the south of Prince
William Sound. This setup looks favorable for a rather short
duration but very intense band of snow to set up from near the
developing low and along the approaching trough axis to the
northwest, including much of the Kenai Peninsula, Mat-Su and
Anchorage. A quick 2 to 5 inches of accumulation is likely for
Anchorage and the Mat-Su as the band moves across from southwest
to northeast.

Looking a bit farther to the east, much higher totals will be
possible across parts of the interior Kenai Peninsula and near
Portage and Whittier, largely depending on how much warm air is
able to filter into lower elevations with the easterly flow moving
in north of the front and weak low. However, guidance has
seemingly been playing catch up with the amount of cold air in
place ahead of this system, and we accordingly have trended the
forecast towards more locations across the Kenai Peninsula holding
on to all snow through Monday evening. This is also in line with
the thinking that the progression of the low as it tracks into
Prince William Sound will substantially shorten the window for
easterly flow to advect warmer air into the Kenai Peninsula, with
winds rapidly weakening as the low enters the Sound late Monday
morning. Winter Weather Advisories will go into effect later this
evening for Portage, Whittier and much of the Seward Highway
corridor from Girdwood south to Moose Pass. Of note, some of the
heaviest snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour could impact
the morning commute along the Seward Highway on Monday morning.

From Monday night into Tuesday, model agreement breaks down
quickly. The track and timing of a secondary shortwave trough
moving up into the Gulf remains highly in question, with some
solutions showing the shortwave head northeast towards Yakutat.
Some other solutions pull the trough straight north into the
Southcentral, possibly bringing another round of snow and coastal
rain to parts of the region Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Regardless of the exact details, an unsettled and showery pattern
will continue through midweek.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 to 3)...

A ~960 mb surface low continues to lift northward across the
eastern Bering this afternoon. Models have struggled with
resolving the exact track of the low, at times taking west and
east of Nunivak Island. The latest consensus is coming into better
agreement with having the center of the low clip the western side
of Nunivak Island later tonight, while the low gradually begins
to weaken. Before weakening occurs, however, numerous impacts will
continue to be felt across the Kuskokwim Delta region.

Winds have been gusting to near 50 mph across Nunivak Island and
Nelson Island the past few hours with visibility dropping down to
1/4 mile or less. Thus, the previous winter weather advisory for
blowing snow has been upgraded to a blizzard warning for the
Kuskokwim Delta through early Monday morning. Conditions elsewhere
along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast will continue to be at risk of
snow and blowing snow with visibility dropping down to 1/2 mile or
less at times.

Gusty conditions and snow are also persisting across interior
portions of the Kuskokwim Delta with Nunapitchuk, in particular,
experiencing blizzard-like conditions in the short term. A winter
weather advisory has been expanded across zone 756 as snow and
blowing snow have clearly spread further inland. This advisory
will also extend through early Monday morning before the low
itself lifts further north and out of the region.

Elsewhere across Southwest Alaska, scattered snow showers are
ongoing across Bristol Bay and locations from Togiak to Dillingham
are forecast to receive on the order of 2 to 3 inches of snow
through tonight. Warming temperatures on Monday, owing to
persistent southerly flow into the region, will transition any
remaining snow to rain through tomorrow morning.

With little break in the weather, the next Bering Sea storm
system arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. A broad front will push
into the Aleutians on Tuesday with gusty winds and showery
conditions. By Wednesday, an occluded front is progged to reach
the Kuskokwim Delta Coast with another round of potentially strong
southerly winds.

-BL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Broad upper level troughing will be present over the Bering Sea
by the start of the long term forecast period. Shortwaves rotating
around the base of the trough will allow for a strong surface low
to lift up toward Kodiak Island on Thursday shifting the main
trough axis east over mainland Alaska for Friday and Saturday.
Deterministic models vary greatly on the exact track of this
surface low, but it looks to direct a plume of deep moisture
toward the southern Alaska coast Thursday and Friday. Expect
moderate to heavy rain at sea level and heavy mountain snow for
the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and the north Gulf Coast.
Gale to storm-force winds will also be associated with this low in
the surrounding marine areas before it dissipates Friday night.
High pressure will build over the Aleutians through the weekend
and increase in amplitude as it marches over western mainland
Alaska by Monday. It will quickly be followed by upper level
troughing over the western Bering with deep southerly flow and
embedded surface lows locally enhancing winds and rain across the
western Aleutians.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A quick bout of snow is likely later this evening with a
period of MVFR CIGs/VIS possible. Conditions improve a bit before
deteriorating once again as snow becomes likely by Monday
morning. CIGs/VIS could drop into IFR late Monday morning into
early afternoon in heavier snow.

&&

$$