970
FXAK68 PAFC 240535
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
835 PM AKST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

There is very little change to the overall forecast this
afternoon. Our resident Gulf low will finally meander east and
into Southeast Alaska tomorrow afternoon. Areas of fog remain
across Southcentral this evening into tonight, though less
widespread from yesterday. Into the overnight hours chances are
high that fog redevelops and lingers through the morning hours on
Monday. Colder temperatures and the retreating low will maintain
gap winds through Passage Canal, Resurrection Bay, and Valdez
Narrows into Valdez Arm.

The next front moves into the western Gulf later tomorrow with
increasing easterly winds into Kodiak Island Monday night. Current
thinking is that these winds will expand in coverage across the
Gulf, with small craft winds covering much of the Gulf by Tuesday
morning. The strongest winds will be through the Barren Islands
and into Kamishak Bay, with easterly gusts as high as 35 knots.

Southcentral will remain largely dry Monday into Tuesday and the
increasingly drier air mass should help erode more of the fog
tomorrow and Tuesday. The front over the western Gulf will push
into the northern Gulf coast on Wednesday with precipitation
chances returning to coastal mountains and Prince William Sound.

BL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 to 3: Tonight through Wednesday)...

The large scale pattern across the greater Bering Sea region has
transitioned into a Rex Block formation, with a closed off upper
level ridge centered over Northeast Russia now situated directly
north of a closed off and vertically stacked low moving near the
western Aleutians. This setup is supporting rather strong easterly
flow at and near the surface across much of the Bering and
Aleutian Chain, especially along and north of the frontal boundary
stretching form the parent low south of Shemya out along most of
the Aleutians. Two new lows are developing along the front across
the North Pacific, and both of these new small lows will have a
significant impact on winds near the southern AKPen and eastern
Aleutians as they track northwest over the next day or so. Across
Southwest, most of the region is now seeing offshore,
northeasterly flow develop around the southern periphery of the
strong high anchored over the northern Bering. Stubborn low to mid
level clouds have kept temperatures rather steady-state in the mid
10s to low 20s, and lows overnight tonight could struggle to drop
much below those numbers if the existing cloud cover does not
erode by early tomorrow morning.

Much of the bigger picture for the short term outlook remains
about the same, but a few key changes have been made to the
forecast this afternoon, mainly involving winds and waves around
the pair of lows developing along the front south of the
eastern Aleutians. Confidence for the track of both of these new
lows has improved today, with it now looking likely the first low
will track over Atka and Adak as it moves northwest from tonight
into Monday. This low will help keep a pocket of gale force winds
going over the south central Bering through Monday afternoon, even
as the rest of the front begins to lose definition and weaken.

Meanwhile, the second compact low will similarly enhance winds and
waves as it approaches Unimak Pass near peak intensity on Monday
afternoon. This low now looks likely to track much farther south
and west compared to earlier indications, resulting in notable
changes for expected winds, waves and precipitation near the
AKPen and eastern Aleutians for Monday and Monday night. A period
of gale force winds with Storm force gusts along with moderate
rainfall will follow the low as it heads northwest into the
eastern Bering through Tuesday, shifting from the AKPen to the
Pribilofs as the center pinwheels west into the southern Bering. A
period of especially intense winds could affect False Pass and
Cold Bay given the favorable track for enhanced channeling of
southeast winds through gaps along the southern AKPen. Gusts could
peak as strong as 60 to 70 mph near Cold Bay late Monday night,
depending on the exact track and strength of the low as it crosses
over into the southern Bering. The low will weaken as it wobbles
back south from Tuesday into Wednesday, leaving behind a region of
disorganized low pressure and widely scattered rain/snow showers
across most of the Bering/Aleutians through midweek.

For Southwest, calm and seasonably cool conditions will prevail
along with steadily increasing east winds through Tuesday as the
stronger of the two aforementioned lows moves up into the eastern
Bering Sea. Most of the region will stay dry until late Tuesday
into Wednesday, as an inverted trough lifts up from Kodiak Island
into Bristol Bay. A warmer air mass will also move up with the
arrival of this feature, and surface temperatures could even poke
up above freezing across some parts of Bristol Bay on Wednesday.
Areas of light snow or rain/snow mix will develop along and ahead
of the incoming trough on Wednesday, mostly across Bristol Bay and
the northern AKPen. This looks like the beginnings of what could
become an abnormally warm and very active pattern towards the end
of this week that will be something to keep a close eye on in the
coming days.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Thursday through Sunday)...

All attention in the long term should be paid to a likely
atmospheric river event that could span from the Eastern Aleutians
to as far east as the Cook Inlet region Friday and heading into
the weekend.

Diving into the knowns and unknowns, the upper level pattern
looks to become increasingly more amplified Friday morning as a
deep, longwave trough takes shape over the Bering, Aleutians, and
North Pacific with textbook difluent flow downstream over the
western Gulf and interior Southwest Alaska. An anomalously strong
500 mb ridge over Southcentral Alaska, Gulf, and North Pacific
becomes anchored over the weekend, forcing the storm track to
become more north to south, which would track lows from the North
Pacific to the Eastern Bering and northward up the western Alaska
coastline.

Model agreement has decreased since yesterday, but guidance shows
the semblance of a shortwave trough amid the mean upper flow
rotating over the North Pacific as the longwave tries to take a
negative tilt. This combination of forcing develops a surface low
somewhere across the North Pacific and sends it northward towards
the Aleutians and so on. However, location and timing of the low
is poor as of the latest runs of the global models.

Along with being a wet system with periods of heavy
precipitation, the possibility of strong winds are certainly there
depending on the strength of the surface low and its associated
front, though this parameter is of lower confidence. There is also
a question of how much warm air advection the system may bring
into Southwest Alaska, in which case rain and mixed p-types would
likely make for hazardous conditions considering its current
snow/ice cover.

Please stay tuned over the coming days as the forecast comes more
into focus.

-AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog and low stratus will prevail over the terminal through
Monday morning. Like yesterday, there may be a period of VFR
ceilings and visibilities this afternoon into early evening as
breaks in the fog develop. However, fog, along with LIFR
conditions are likely to return this evening and persist through
the overnight hours as flow remains both weak aloft and at the
surface. An inversion near the surface will also help low-level
moisture to be locked in at the surface further aiding to the
ingredients for fog development. A developing northeasterly flow
aloft early morning Monday may help to erode and push the fog
bank west away from the terminal by mid-morning Monday. There is
still some model uncertainty regarding this solution. Nonetheless,
it is possible that the rather stubborn fog bank diminishes
earlier on Monday than we have seen the past two days.

&&


$$