751
FXAK68 PAFC 100126
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 PM AKST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Winds have calmed down across Southcentral Alaska including in the
Matanuska Valley as weak ridging builds into the region. Due to
the lower winds and another push of cold air from the north,
low temperatures have cooled into the negatives and single digits
across Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valley, and the Kenai Peninsula. The
Copper River Basin including Glennallen to McCarthy are seeing
overnight temperatures of -40F and below. Thompson Pass is still
seeing gusty winds and wind chills to -40F. Due to these very cold
conditions, the Cold Weather Advisory has been extended until 4 PM
Friday and now includes Thompson Pass.

On Wednesday, a weaker upper trough moves into Southcentral. This
will cause winds speeds to increase in gap areas including Valdez
and around Kodiak Island. The Matanuska Valley will see increased
winds as well, but these will not nearly be as strong, lengthy,
nor widespread as the previous event. Anchorage and the Kenai
Peninsula will likely remain mostly calm through this upper level
trough. These effects will last through Thursday morning. The rest
of Thursday looks relatively calm wind-wise. Temperatures will
remain very cold as the Arctic air mass remains in place.

On Friday, a stronger upper trough pushes into Southcentral. There
is some uncertainty in the exact track of this trough and
therefore, impacts, but it will crank up winds speeds throughout
Southcentral. The Matanuska Valley could see gusty winds with this
trough. The Valdez gaps including Valdez itself is another area
that could see gusty winds. Cloud cover will likely increase with
this event, so temperatures across the area could be warmer,
especially in the Copper River Basin. However, another push of
cold air will arrive Saturday, further complicating things. Monitor
the forecast for more details as details of this event become
more clear.

-JAR

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through
3/Tonight through Friday)...

A blocking ridge remains firmly entrenched over the Bering Sea,
maintaining dry and cold conditions over Southwest Alaska and
the eastern Bering Sea. Satellite imagery does show a short-wave
trough over the central Bering caught between two spokes of the
ridge. However, there is nothing more than some high clouds with
this. A second short-wave is rounding the top of the ridge,
digging southward across western AK. This will also come through
with nothing more than some high clouds. However, the Bering ridge
will amplify tonight through Wednesday, forcing this trough and
a reinforcing shot of Arctic air southward across Southwest AK and
the Alaska Peninsula. This will lead to a period of strong and
gusty northerly winds, especially through bays and passes along
the Alaska peninsula during the day Wednesday. The ridge will then
quickly build eastward toward Southwest AK Wednesday, leading to
diminishing winds and falling temperatures.

Meanwhile, storm systems tracking to the west of the upper level
ridge will bring southerly winds and periods of rain to the far
western Aleutian Islands, including Shemya. One storm will flatten
the ridge as it tracks into the Arctic on Thursday. While most of
this will head eastward across northern AK, a trailing cold front
and weak short-wave will move into Southwest AK Thursday night
through Friday, likely bringing areas of light snow. There might
be just enough warm air moving off the Bering to produce rain or
freezing rain for portions of the Kuskokwim Delta coast, but
confidence in this is low. In any case, precipitation should be
brief and light. Cold air advection will bring another round of
winds Friday and into the weekend for portions of Southwest AK
and the Alaska Peninsula.

-SEB

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

This weekend, an expansive area of high pressure, stronger than
1040 mb at the surface, will be centered over the northern Bering
Sea and extend across Western/Interior Alaska and much of the rest
of the Bering Sea. This high pressure will aid in pushing Arctic
Air south across the state, causing a trough to dig across the
southern mainland into the Gulf of Alaska. This will bring similar
conditions to last weekend, with potential for another round of
high winds out of gaps and mountain passes, along with continued
cold temperatures and wind chills. A developing complex surface
low in the Gulf of Alaska could retrograde just enough early next
week to bring some light snow to the north Gulf coast and parts of
the Copper River Basin, but forecast confidence is low at this
time. Otherwise, the entire forecast area is expected to remain
dry, and this could continue to be the case for the next several
weeks as this general pattern of cold, dry weather looks to stick
around.

Quesada

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.
North winds between 10 and 15 kt will develop Wednesday afternoon
as a trough moves into the Gulf.

&&


$$