676
FXAK69 PAFG 011214
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
414 AM AKDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The overall pattern remains fairly active with widespread snow
showers across the state. A newly formed low from the central
portion of the state will slowly move east, over the next day or
so, then shift south toward the YK-Delta. This will create another
round of troughing across the Bering Sea. An Arctic high from the
Chukchi will begin to shift E/SE, setting up easterly flow across
the North Slope. This will continue to provide these areas with
snow showers for the next several days. The Arctic high and trough
will eventually form a deformation band, somewhere along the West
Coast by Tuesday. This will continue the snowfall along the West
Coast through the mid week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Snow showers will taper off by the late morning, becoming more
  oriented over the Central and Western Interior. Some slick
  surfaces may be present on the roads and sidewalks this morning.
  An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible through this
  morning for the Dalton Highway Summits and the White Mountains,
  with up to an inch possible elsewhere.

- Winds will continue to weaken throughout the day.

- South/southeasterly flow will continue to keep temperatures
  unseasonably warm. Temperatures will begin to slightly cool
  today as the warm front continues to progress across the state.
  A gradual cooldown is expected through the early parts of next
  week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Northerly winds will continue to remain elevated through Sunday
  afternoon with gusts between 40 and 50 mph.

- Scattered snow showers will continue across the Bering Strait, West
  Coast, and Western Interior throughout the weekend.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend, then
  begin a cooldown going into the mid part of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Northeasterly winds are expected to remain elevated throughout
  the weekend. Strongest winds are expected along the western
  Arctic Coast, peaking around 20-30 mph with gusts to 35-50 mph.

- Isolated to scattered snow showers can be expected across the
  North Slope through the weekend with a series of fronts moving
  over the Brooks Range. Heaviest snowfall is expected on the
  south facing slopes of the eastern Brooks Range, 3" to 6"
  possible. 1" to 3" expected elsewhere.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend, then
  begin a cooldown going into the mid part of next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
An area of low pressure has begun building up over the central
portion of the state throughout the overnight hours. This is
due to the wrap around that was occurring with a stronger surface
low moving into the NE portion of the Gulf of Alaska. The newly
formed low will continue to move west throughout the day. This
will continue to supply snow showers for the Western Interior and
the West Coast throughout the weekend. With the orientation of the
low, this is allowing for southerly flow to return over the
eastern portion of the state. With that said, the cooling trend
will be more gradual through mid week.

Another low is circulating over the Yukon, in Canada, which will
continue to supply to North Slope with easterly flow throughout
the weekend. This will provide widespread snowfall between 1 and
3 inches, with up to 9 inches possible for the eastern Brooks
Range. An Arctic high will continue to shift E/SE from the
Chukchi, which will continue to aid the easterly flow and bring
seasonal temperatures back into the state.

A more defined trough will begin to form across the Bering Strait,
around Monday. This is due to the westward tracking low, from the
central portion of the state, begins to shift southward into the
YK-Delta. This will begin to interact with the Chukchi high and
create a weak deformation band across the West Coast, which will
bring another wave of snow showers. Models remain uncertain in
the exact positioning of this feature and will continue to be
monitored over the next several runs.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns at this time. Freeze up is beginning across the area and
is expected to continue as colder temperatures persist.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Models continue to show troughing across the West Coast through
the mid week. Deterministic models continue to show the chance
for another low to move into the northern Gulf of Alaska by mid
week, which could impact the region towards the end of next week.
These will continue to be monitored over the next few days as
these features will become the main drivers for the overall
pattern through the end of next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-802-813-814-858>860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-812.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ808-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-811-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ813-814-858>860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Twombly