207
FXAK69 PAFG 262331
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
231 PM AKST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in the Arctic Ocean is bringing strong northeast winds
this morning to the Interior and West Coast of Alaska. Meanwhile, a
large area of low pressure exists over the Gulf of Alaska, which is
strengthening the Tanana Valley Jet, and will allow for strong and
gusty winds through Friday morning, especially for Delta Junction,
where winds may occasionally approach 60 mph by late tonight through
early tomorrow morning. Temperatures will remain seasonable across
Northern Alaska until we see a push of tropical moisture by the end
of the week. With this push of moisture, there will be a return of
stormy weather to the West Coast and Western Interior this weekend.
These conditions will make there way into the Eastern Interior by
the middle of next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Seasonable temperatures will continue as daytime highs will be
  in the single digits, while overnight lows are in the single
  digits below 0. These will continue until Friday when we start
  to see a warm-up from a low in the Gulf.

- Northeasterly winds are picking up along the Dalton Highway
  Summits and Yukon Flats. The strongest winds will be along the
  Dalton Highway, and they will gust up to 40 mph. These winds
  could cause areas of blowing snow along the Dalton Highway,
  impacting visibility at times.

- The Tanana Valley Jet will create strong and gusty winds, with
  the strongest winds being at Delta Junction, which may
  occasionally approach 60 mph tonight, and then gust up around 50
  to 55 mph tomorrow into Friday morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Near normal temperatures are expected until Thursday night when
  we see another push of warm air from the Bering Sea.

- Western Interior Valleys could see below normal temperatures
  pushing the teens below depending on the strength of the inversion
  that develops.

- East-Northeast winds are ramping up this morning across the
  West Coast. Generally these winds will be 30 to 40 mph across
  much of the West Coast, however communities that typically see
  stronger winds from the east-northeast will see stronger winds.
  These stronger winds are expected to begin to weaken tomorrow
  evening.

- This afternoon we will see snow showers begin to arrive on the
  Lower Yukon and Southern Seward Peninsula. These showers today
  will favor southeasterly aspects of terrain, before becoming
  more widespread across the region early tomorrow morning.

- With the strong winds and snow showers tomorrow, we could see
  pockets of reduced visibility.

- Through Friday afternoon we are anticipating 1" to 3" of
  snowfall across the Y-K Delta, Southern Seward Peninsula, and
  Lower Yukon.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Low stratus and patchy fog will continue to scatter out for
  portions of the Arctic Coast this evening through tomorrow.

- Temperatures are expected to remain near normal with low
  temperatures in the single digits below 0 on the Arctic Coast,
  and lows in the teens below 0 on the Plains. A 10 to 15 degree
  warm-up is expected Friday night and continue through the
  weekend.

- Easterly winds of 20 to 30 mph are possible across the Arctic
  Coastline. The chances for these winds will continue until
  Friday.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 1041 mb high pressure is currently parked over the Beaufort Sea,
along with an area of low pressure moving up into the Gulf of
Alaska, which has increased the pressure gradient across the
Interior and has allowed for some strong and gusty winds for the
White Mountains and locations along the Dalton Highway Summits.
Where there has been more significant snowfall recently of at least
several inches, there could possibly be some blowing snow at times.
As the high weakens and opens up into a ridge over western Canada,
it will weaken the gradient and allow for winds to gradually fall
off later in the week. The winds along the Arctic Coast will also
continue to increase a bit going into tomorrow, but then come down
thereafter. There could be some very light snow due to onshore flow
right along the northeast Arctic Coast. Otherwise, mostly dry and
cold conditions will persist throughout the rest of the work week.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Beginning this weekend, there will be an increase of clouds, along
with warmer temperatures and precipitation over the western half of
the state, and then this will transition over to the eastern half
going into the early part of next week as a strong trough approaches
the region from the south, with an associated upper level jet that
is tapping into subtropical moisture being advected up from around
20N. Because of this, PWAT anomalies have been considerably high,
which translates to much warmer temperatures and higher amounts of
precipitable water. Models in general have been struggling overall
with the evolution of this feature, with respect to the transition
of the major shortwave troughs moving up towards the Bering Sea. The
ECWMF has been the more aggressive model in terms of the progression
northward, which will allow for warmer air over 0C at 850 mb over a
more expansive area into portions of the Interior, and may allow for
a mix of rain and snow, and potentially even some freezing
rain/drizzle for portions along the Southwest Coast, and within the
Upper Tanana Valley towards the middle of next week.

Some of the deterministic models, such as the GFS, have a
somewhat different solution, in terms of the low getting more
blocked by a strong area of high pressure located over Siberia and
not advancing as far northward into the Bering Sea, and also has
an Arctic front dropping down over the state quicker that the
other models with a colder solution, and not as impactful central
and northern Alaska. Although, since these models have been
rather inconsistent, it is difficult to determine which holds more
weight. However, the consensus of ensembles does confirm that
there will be more mild temperatures within portions of the
Interior early through mid part of next week, with some lower
elevations possibly getting above freezing for highs, before
temperatures sharply drop off with a drying pattern going into the
later half of next week as the longwave trough exits the region
and high pressure begins to build back in.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803-808-809-812-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804-807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-853-857-858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805-810-853-856>858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-850-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

Stewey