572
FXAK69 PAFG 152246
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
146 PM AKST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A very cold weather pattern continues across much of the region
with the coldest air remaining over the Eastern Interior where
temps are 25 to 35 degrees colder than normal. A pair of
disturbances over the next few days will bring some periods of
light snow to the North Slope and areas along the West Coast.
These systems will also push some cloud cover and light snow over
frigid portions of the Interior, potentially bringing some
limited relief from the extreme cold. Meanwhile a disturbance
dropping south from the Beaufort could bring blizzard conditions
to the eastern Arctic Coastline Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Clouds move in tonight and Tuesday with some light snow possible
  from the Fairbanks metro westward. This will limit the very
  cold temperatures to teens and 20s below zero.

- The rest of the week will see a mix of clouds and clearing.
  However areas that see some breaks in the clouds will continue
  to experience very cold temps. The far eastern interior will
  also continue to feature much below temps for the next few days.

- North winds through Isabel Pass to 30 mph early this afternoon,
  but should subside this evening. Winds will remain breezy into
  mid week with areas of blowing snow and cold wind chills.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Light snow will continue this afternoon into Tuesday as a
  weakening disturbance tracks southeast from the Northern Seward
  Peninsula. Snow accumulations will be light; generally 1 inch or
  less, with NW winds 15-25 mph northwest of Kaltag.

- Another system has the potential to bring more significant
  snowfall to most coastal areas and the Interior beginning
  Wednesday night and lasting through Thursday, though
  accumulations do not look to be greater than 4".

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- An area of snow will track across the North Slope through
  Wednesday with light snow and west/northwest winds gusting 20 to
  40 mph.
- Snow accumulations around 1 to 3 inches along the coast with 3
   to 6 inches possible in the northern slopes of the Brooks
   Range.
- Localized blizzard conditions possible, especially along the
   eastern Arctic coast and in the Eastern Brooks Range by
   midweek. A Blizzard Warning has been issued for Kaktovik from
   Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday for potential wind gusts in
   excess of 50 mph and visibility below 1/4 mile.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Our current cold snap may have hit it`s peak this morning with
many locations experiencing their coldest temps in a couple of
years including Fairbanks where the temp briefly fell to -41F.
The good news is that temps should moderate a bit for a couple of
days as a disturbance is currently crossing the northwest coast of
Alaska and will manage to spread snow and clouds southwards from
the western North Slope and West Coast into parts of the Interior
through Tuesday. The highest snow totals will likely be confined
to the western Brooks Range, but much of northern and western
Alaska should see at least a few inches of new snow. Across the
Interior, confidence is high that we will see snow Tuesday as much
of the column will be saturated. But at these cold temps, total
available moisture remains limited. As such this system will not
manage to produce snowfall like the most recent system did.

Probably the most impactful weather the next couple of days will
be associated with a disturbance dropping south from the Beaufort
Sea towards the eastern Arctic Coastline. While this system will
spread snow along the North Slope from Utqiagvik to Barter Island
through Wednesday, it is the potential for strong winds that will
be most concerning. The gradient between the approaching surface
low to the north and the strong surface high over the Eastern
Interior will help generate strong easterly flow along the coast.
Guidance suggests winds of 35 to 40 mph gusting upwards of 50 mph
at times late Tuesday into Wednesday from Point Thomson to
Kaktovik. With the potential for blowing snow and visibilities
well below 1/4 mile, the decision has been made to upgrade the
current Winter Storm Watch to a Blizzard Warning for the eastern
Arctic Coast. Meanwhile a Winter Weather Advisory will be hoisted
for the coastline west of this area extending back to Prudhoe Bay
where winds will generally be a little less strong, but still
sufficient to generate a decent amount of blowing snow.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Once again the extended period begins with a highly amplified
pattern consisting of a deep trough extending from the Yukon down
into the Gulf with a ridge extending from the North Pacific up
into Siberia. This also leads to a stark temp contrast with above
normal temps along the west coast with much below normal temps
across the east. As far as the future of this pattern, models are
still trying to slowly break down the ridge, but are still likely
a bit too quick and aggressive in doing so. Using ensemble means
as a basis for this forecast package, it seems like we will see a
replay of the current setup with a disturbance dropping southeast
out of the Chukchi and bringing precip (mainly light snow) south
and east across the region Thursday and Friday. Should the ridge
buckle a bit in response to this, additional energy over Siberia
could then shift eastwards towards the west coast over the
weekend. Should this come to pass, the west coast would be in for
more significant precipitation over the weekend, including a
chance for a wintry mix in spots. However this is a very low
confidence call at this time.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-805-812-852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-808-809-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-857-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-853.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-859-860.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854-856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
&&

$$

Laney