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FXAK69 PAFG 110603 AAA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
903 PM AKST Wed Dec 10 2025


SYNOPSIS...

Cold weather continues across Interior Alaska, with many areas
seeing temperatures deeply in the negatives. The North Slope,
which is in the single digits above or below, will itself drop
into the negative teens by late this evening as colder air moves
in behind a cold front and snowfall ends. From Thursday through
the weekend as a low from Siberia moves along the Arctic coast
from west to east, it will bring widespread snowfall of at least
an inch with much warmer temperatures to most of Alaska north of
the AK Range. On the North Slope, winds will increase today and
especially tonight into tomorrow as the low approaches, which
could result in blowing snow and reduced visibilities at times,
especially where they combine with falling snow. Early next week,
very cold conditions settling in over the region could drop
temperatures into the -40s or -50s in much of Eastern Alaska, even
outside typical cold spots.

KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

...Updated to include additional details on snow and blowing snow
potential and updates to Winter Weather Advisories across Western
Coast and Western Interior...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Cold weather will continue across the Interior today before
  warming Thursday and Friday. Cold valley locations will see lows
  in the -30s and -40s, with the Upper Tanana Valley falling to
  around -50F, or locally even down to -55F for a few locations,
  such as Chicken.

- Beginning tomorrow, another system will move into the area and
  yield snow totals widely of around 1 to 3 inches through the
  weekend, with higher totals of over 4 inches possible from the
  north slopes of the Western AK Range to the White Mountains.

- Winds will begin to increase out of the north through Windy and
  Isabel Passes beginning early Friday morning and lasting
  through Saturday morning, with blowing snow and reduced
  visibilities down to 1/2 mile or less as a result at times.

- Considerably warmer temperatures are likely on Friday with this
  system, with highs widely rising into the positive single or
  double digits.

- Early next week, much colder air is going to settle back into
  the area, especially over the eastern half of the Interior,
  which may allow for even colder temperatures to be possible.
  Some areas, such as the Yukon Flats and Upper Tanana Valley,
  could see temperatures drop enough for there to need to be Cold
  Weather products issued.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Cold weather with lows in the negative teens and 20s will
  continue through tonight ahead of the next system.

- From tomorrow and through the weekend, much warmer temperatures
  are expected, with increasing clouds and generally around 2-6
  inches of snow, with locally higher amounts farther north and
  inland over higher terrain. Winds will also increase with gusts
  approaching 35 mph around the Seward Peninsula and 50 mph from
  Kotzebue Sound northwest to Cape Lisburne. The advection of
  warmer air across Norton Sound may allow for pockets of sleet
  and/or freezing rain may to mix in with the snow as it begins to
  taper off late Thursday.

- Temperatures will return to more seasonal values with drier
conditions going into the early part of next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Southerly winds will begin to increase through Anaktuvuk Pass
  ahead of the approaching low pressure system by later in the
  evening tomorrow. These may reach criteria, with ground
  blizzards and likely whiteout conditions begin possible through
  Friday. These winds will shift westerly after passage of the
  front, which will allow for winds to weaken, but snowfall will
  likely continue through the weekend.

- A more robust wave of snow is expected to move in across the
  region going into the weekend as a low moves along the Arctic
  coast from west to east. 2 to 4 inches of snow are widely
  possible across the area. Higher totals are possible in the
  Brooks Range and Arctic plains, mostly east of the Dalton
  Highway. Portions of the eastern Brooks Range southeast of
  Sagwon may receive between 6-8 inches of snow.

- As the low moves along the coast, widespread winds of 25 to 35
  mph, with higher gusts, will shift from SW to W and could
  combine with falling/fresh snow to allow for blowing snow, which
  may temporarily reduce visibilities.

FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

A weak upper level trough is continuing to skirt across the
southeastern portion of the state, with generally high pressure
conditions persisting elsewhere for the moment. This has allowed
for temperatures to be somewhat slightly modified and warmer with
the mid-level clouds passing overhead. There will begin a change
in the overall pattern with an area of low pressure moving in from
west to east across the entire state. The Arctic frontal boundary
associated with this will be advancing in across the North Slope.
The tightening of the surface pressure gradient with this low
transitioning from the Chukchi Sea and over into the Beaufort Sea
will allow for there to be very strong winds to develop across the
Arctic Coast and Plains. Because of this, there could be blowing
snow at times (either from precipitation falling or from snowfall
already on the ground) and this may occasionally reduce
visibilities at times until the winds switch around to a more
westerly direction and weaken in the pass. Due to upsloping,
higher snowfall amounts are anticipated within the eastern Brooks
Range, east of Dalton Hwy. For some of the west facing slopes,
there could be some locations receiving anywhere from 6 to 8
inches through the weekend. As this system continues to move off
into northwestern Canada, it is going to draw in colder air on the
backside of the low, which will filter in across the Arctic
Plains. It will also create a strong pressure gradient just off
the northeast Arctic Coast. Winds will become very strong just off
the coast, and gusts may approach 60 mph at times. This will
result in blizzard-like conditions from Prudhoe Bay to Kaktovik,
with significantly reduced visibilities at times.

Farther south into the Interior, the warmer air advection will
infiltrate along with increasing clouds and the chance for snow.
Generally, total snowfall amounts expected through the weekend
will be on the order of 1 to 3 inches for most locations, although
there will likely be some higher amounts for locations within the
White Mountains of 3 to 5 inches, for the west-northwest facing
slopes of the Alaska Range of 4 to 7 inches, and also
significantly higher amounts across the higher terrain on the
Seward Peninsula, of up to 9 inches or locally more for a few
areas. This will continue to taper off going into the latter half
of the weekend as colder and drier air continue to advect in
behind the exiting trough.

EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Ensembles have overall shown persistence in terms of a strong
building of a ridge building in over the Bering/Chukchi Sea during
the early part of next week, while a strong upper level low pressure
is positioned over the Beaufort Sea/Canadian Archipelago, and
another upper level low being located in the Gulf of Alaska. Through
at least the first half of next week, the North Slope could see
multiple rounds of snow from a series of Arctic lows moving down
into the Beaufort Sea and either into the northeast Arctic coast, or
into the Canadian Archipelago. As these lows move into the area,
winds on the eastern Arctic coast could intermittently rise and lead
to blowing snow, and significantly reduced visibilities at times.
Elsewhere, a strong high-pressure ridge aloft is expected to set up
over the Bering Sea, with cold troughing over northwestern Canada,
which will allow for a very cold air mass to move down from the
north and over eastern Alaska. With the temperatures at 850 mb
falling into the mid to lower -20s C, surface temperatures from Mon
December 15 through at least Wed December 17 in much of Eastern and
parts of Central Alaska could reach into the -40s or even near -50F,
even outside of typical cold spots.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801>803-806.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ847>850.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ804-805.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ808>810.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803-808-852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-813-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-809-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807-856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850-853.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
&&

$$