101
FXAK69 PAFG 251400
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
500 AM AKST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low center just east of Eielson AFB is continuing to move slowly
to the west. This low pressure is bringing clouds and chances for
light snow to the Tanana Valley and Yukon Flats this morning.
These clouds are limiting the development of the inversions across
the Middle and Upper Tanana Valley, keeping many areas at or
above 0 degrees this morning. High pressure is continuing to build
over the Chuckchi Sea. This high will bring blustery
northeasterly winds across much of the Interior beginning this
afternoon and continuing into Thursday. For much of Northern
Alaska this week will be much more seasonable with cooler and
drier conditions. This weekend there is looking to be a shift
towards a stormier pattern with the potential to see a wide
variety of precipitation types due to warmer tropical air being
brought into Northern Alaska.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Colder and drier conditions return tonight. Nighttime
  temperatures will be in the single digits to teens below zero.

- Clouds will continue to clear through the work week.
  Temperatures decrease further in valley locations under clear
  skies as stronger temperature inversions develop. Temperatures
  and moisture will begin to increase this upcoming weekend with
  an increasing chance of precipitation going into the early part
  of next week.

- Increasing northeast winds this afternoon, and will last
  through Thursday. Areas of reduced visibility due to blowing
  snow are possible as are difficult travel conditions over
  Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits. A special weather
  statement has been issued which highlights these details.

- Stronger winds will begin to increase tonight across the Tanana
  Valley, which may allow for some of the locations, such as Delta
  Junction, to experience wind gusts for up to 50 mph going into
  Wednesday afternoon.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Seasonable temperatures are expected to continue across much of
  Western Alaska until Thursday afternoon. Warmer temperatures
  will begin to arrive Thursday night, and last into early next
  week.

- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast this afternoon
  and increase overnight tonight. Easterly wind gusts of 25 to 35
  mph are expected by Wednesday.

- Wednesday night to Thursday evening there is a chance to see
  snow showers in the Y-K Delta. Accumulations from these snow
  showers would be up to 2". Thursday evening as warmer air begins
  to move into the area, these snow showers could turn into a
  rain/snow mix.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Low stratus is hanging around across the Arctic Coastline this
  morning. This stratus will scatter out as the high pressure in
  Chuckchi Sea moves east today. Clearer skies are anticipated to
  remain for the remainder of the week.

- With clear skies the temperatures will cool, and return to being
  more seasonable. Lows will be near 0 on the coastline, and the
  teens below on the Arctic Plains.

- Easterly winds across the Arctic Coast will develop today as a
  high pressure moves east across the Arctic Ocean. These winds
  will be 20 to 30 mph, and will hang around for the rest of the
  week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A weak closed off low is moving through the Tanana Valley this
morning. This low will begin to merge with a weak 500 mb
shortwave, and will move west across the Interior underneath the
building high pressure in the Chuckchi Sea. As this low moves
west across the Interior, cloud cover will accompany this low
helping to moderate the colder temperatures. By wednesday night
this low will be in the Norton Sound bringing some light snow
chances to the Southern Seward Peninsula. The building high
pressure over the Chuckchi Sea is slowly moving east into the
Beaufort Sea. With a fairly strong high near 1040 mb, and a low
pressure centered over the Aleutian Islands we will see a 40 to 50
mb gradient across Mainland Alaska. We will see some blustery 850
mb winds develop due to this pressure gradient with winds up to
40 knots. Not all of these winds will mix down into the valleys,
but elevated locations and places that have east-northeast
channeled flow will see stronger winds. Colder, drier, and
blustery winds will be the story for many in Northern Alaska this
week, until we begin to see a pattern shift starting around
Friday.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Looking towards the end of the week and into the weekend, there is
good agreement that we will see a large scale pattern change
bringing stormy conditions to most of Northern Alaska. Come Friday
night and into Saturday a low will move northeast towards the
Aleutian Islands. This low will have a moisture plume from roughly
20 degrees north, allowing for warm tropical air to be advected
into the Interior. Friday we will see our first trough move into
the Western Interior. This trough will have to contend with a
stout ridge over the Eastern Interior. Models have backed off on
the amount of precipitation with this first trough, but will still
bring in the warmer air with 850 mb temperatures of -2 to -4
degrees C. This warmer air will help to erode the cold air on the
surface priming it for the main low. Sunday and Monday will see
the main low pressure move into the northern Gulf of Alaska. This
will bring a frontal boundary in the Interior with another chance
at heavy precipitation and warmer temperatures that could reach
reach 32 degrees or greater for a large swath of the Southern
Interior. With its current track we would potentially have
southerly flow in the Eastern Interior which would downslope a lot
of the precipitation, but any change in the track either west or
east would allow for more moisture to make it`s way into the
Interior. There is still a lot of model uncertainty with the
minor details like temperatures, precipitation amounts, and
precipitation types. Models are coming into an agreement on the
track of the system, so we should see agreement on the details in
the coming model runs.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802>804-812.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805>807-810-850-853-854-
     856>858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-850-851-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

Dennis