784
FXAK69 PAFG 281408
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
508 AM AKST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A quiet day across much of Northern Alaska as high pressure
continues to influence the area. This will begin to change
Saturday night as a low pressure in the Southern Bering Sea will
bring warmer temperatures and tropical moisture. This tropical
moisture will bring chances early next week for snow, wintry mix,
rain, and freezing rain to the Interior.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Temperatures warm through Sunday with highs in the single digits
  to teens increasing to the teens to mid 20s. The Yukon Flats
  north to the Brooks Range remains colder with highs rising into
  the upper single digits.

- Gusty easterly winds through Delta Junction with gusts up to 60
  mph through this morning.

- Cloud cover increases from the southwest through the weekend. Tnight
  we could see areas of flurries with a slight chance for light
  accumulating snow along elevated terrain in the Eastern
  Interior.


West Coast and Western Interior...
- Temperatures continue to remain above normal with highs
  temperatures in the upper teens to upper 20s. These are expected
  to persist into early next week.

- Winds will begin to weaken later this afternoon across the
  Northwest Interior. North to northeast winds will begin to build
  back up across much of the West Coast Saturday night. We will
  see wind gusts up to 45 mph with these winds.

- Light snow is continuing across the Norton Sound coastline.
  These communities are expected to only see an additional inch of
  snow this morning. This afternoon the band of light snow will
  move north towards the Kobuk Valley. Snow accumulations up to 2"
  are expected in this region.

- Chances of rain, freezing rain, and wintry mix from the Yukon
  Delta east to the Upper Kuskokwim increase Sunday. Confidence is
  low for potential ice accumulations. Chances remain through
  early next week. A winter storm watch has been issued.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Temperatures in the single digits above and below 0 today. Temperatures
  rise around 10 degrees Saturday and remain warmer through at
  least Monday.

- Mostly clear conditions today. Isolated pockets of low stratus
  and fog still linger. Areas with lingering fog could see ice
  accrete onto surfaces. The ice accretion would lead to slick
  surfaces.

- Easterly winds begin to weaken today across the Arctic
  Coastline. West of Point Barrow will see winds turn
  southwesterly Saturday and gust up 25 mph.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A broad area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean and Western
Canada will continue to entrench itself in the area. An area of
low pressure will move into the Chuckchi Sea by Saturday with a
stout frontal boundary associated with it. This front will move
into the Northwest Arctic Saturday night bringing cooler
temperatures. By Monday afternoon the front will set up in the
Western Interior north of Galena. This arctic cold front will help
to stop more of the warm air from the south to reach into the
Northern Interior. On Sunday we will see the first upper-level
shortwave to move into the Y-K Delta, Lower Yukon, and Upper
Kuskokwim Valley. This shortwave will see our first chance to see
a wintry mix in the region. Models are indicating a warm nose from
850 to 900 mb with temperatures up to 1C. This would allow for
melting to begin, but wouldn`t be enough to fully melt into rain.
With a shallow melting layer we could see ice pellets or a
rain/snow mix from Marshall to McGrath until the main front
arrives Monday night. In the first 3 days there is much better
confidence on seeing ice accumulations in the Southwest Interior
and parts of Y-K Delta. However, the extended forecast period
starting monday night, begins to see some major model
discrepancies. Those will be discussed in the Extended Forecast
Section.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Behind the arctic cold front that sets up in the Western Interior
Monday, there is a very strong area of high pressure in Eastern
Siberia. This area of high pressure is the cause of much of the
model discrepancy this morning. The GFS ensemble and ECMWF
ensemble are producing two different solutions that would impact
what we would see here in Northern Alaska. The GFS solution has
the low that will move towards the Aleutian Islands, but stay
south of them. This would limit how much moisture and warm air can
make it into the Interior due to high pressure blocking it. The
ECMWF solution on the other hand is trying to bring the low center
into Bristol Bay. This would be a much wetter and warmer
solution. The Canadian ensemble was consistently with the ECMWF
solution the past couple of day, but that has changed as there has
not been a lot of run-to-run model agreement. With inconsistency
between the model suites, it is hard to build confidence on
precipitation types, amounts, and temperatures come early next
week and into mid week. As we move towards the end of the week
however, there is good agreement between the ensembles that we
will be getting colder.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-809-812-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-860.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856>858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Dennis