328
FXAK69 PAFG 061319
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
519 AM AKDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A relatively calm morning across much of Northern Alaska this
morning. The Interior will see a quick round of rain showers,
before the main system arrives. Tonight we will see a low
pressure move into the Gulf of Anadyr , bringing heavy rain,
strong southwesterly winds, and signifcant coastal flooding
concerns. This system will bring impacts to almost every area
across Northern Alaska, and will be a multi-day event.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Isolated to scattered rain showers across the Central and
  Eastern Interior today.

- With an approaching warm front from a Bering Sea storm, moderate
  to heavy rainfall is expected Tuesday night to Thursday. This
  front will bring 1 to 2 inches of rain across much of the
  Central and Eastern Interior. The highest amounts will be in the
  terrain.

- Strong winds across the Interior Tuesday afternoon through
  Wednesday, gusts as high as 35 possible in the valleys
  (including Fairbanks), up to 50 mph in the White Mountains and
  Dalton Highway Summits, up to 75 mph in the AK Range Passes.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- There are scattered areas of dense fog across the West Coast
  this morning. It should persist until around 11 am, when there
  is sufficient solar mixing.

- Quiet conditions along the coast until this afternoon, another
  round of rain in the Interior today, mostly east of the Nulato
  Hills.

- Bering Sea low moves northeast this afternoon, rain and mostly
  weak wind moves into St. Lawrence Island during the afternoon.
- The low rapidly strengthens tonight, periods of heavy rain and
   wind gusts to 65 mph move into the Yukon Delta, St. Lawrence
   Island and Norton Sound as early as Tuesday morning.
- Rain and wind gets to Kotzebue as early as 12PM on Tuesday.
- There will be a prolonged period of wind gusts of 40 to 60+ mph
   from the south/southwest from the Yukon Delta northward from
   Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night. Strongest winds
   will be in the Yukon Delta, St. Lawrence Island and through the
   Bering Strait.
- Though most gusts will be capped around 60-65 mph, some gusts
   may be as high as 75 mph, especially in typical windy
   spots/higher terrain in the Bering Strait Region, and Yukon
   Delta.
- Rainfall totals through Wednesday afternoon will be around
   0.50 to 1 inch in St. Lawrence Island, Bering Strait and
   northern Seward Peninsula, up to 1.50 inches everywhere else.

- Coastal impacts will be discussed in the "coastal hazard
  potential" section.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- The North Slope will see generally quiet weather today, with the
  exception of low stratus clouds hanging around. Tuesday
  afternoon will see southerly winds begin to ramp up. Gusts
  upwards of 45 mph in Atigun Pass and 55 mph along the Chukchi
  Sea/Western Arctic Coast.

- Widespread rain for the North Slope and snow in the Brooks Range
  develops Tuesday afternoon and progresses northeast through the
  night. Snow will be heavy at times north/east of Shungnak with
  light to moderate snow north of Coldfoot (Atigun Pass). Snow and
  rain will continue through Wednesday, then turn more showery
  heading into Thursday.
- Storm total snow accumulations still seem to be 1 to 3 inches
   in Anaktuvuk Pass and the North Slope, 4 to 9 inches in Atigun
   Pass and potentially upwards of 18 to 24 inches in the Western
   Brooks Range north/east of Shungnak.

- Coastal impacts for the big storm Wednesday/Thursday will be in
  "coastal hazard potential" section.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
The anticipated coastal storm is quickly moving towards the
Aleutian Islands this morning. By this afternoon it will move
into the Bering, and will begin to rapidly intensify. Model
guidance is in good agreement on the strength and track of this
low. The low is anticipated to bottom out around 960 mb, and will
move Northeast west of St. Lawrence Island and towards the
Chuckchi Sea. There will be two main areas of where there is a
significant wind threat. The first area will be immediately around
the low center, and this will effect St. Lawrence Island and the
Bering Strait Coastline. The strongest winds will be associated
here with gusts up to 75 mph being possible. The next area will be
the warm front associated with this low. This will effect the
Yukon Delta. There is some uncertainity with how strong these
winds could get, but the coastline could see wind gusts up to 65
mph, while inland could see up to 60 mph. There is a very strong
850 mb jet associated with this warm front. 06z guidance is
painting a maxima of around 65 knots. With heavy rainfall
accompaning this front, it is entirely possible we will see some
of these winds mix down to the surface. The Alaska Range will see
a very strong pressure gradient begin to develop Tuesday night.
All of the models are in agreement that it will be 10 to 12 mbs
across the AK Range at the surface. Pair this with 500 mb energy
coming across the range at the same time, we could see wind gusts
up to 75 mph in the passes. We are anticipating the strongest of
the gap winds to not make it down towards Delta Junction, but
still could see some breezy conditions. The strong southerly winds
could help downslope some of the moisture in the Tanana Valley
limiting how much rain will fall in the Fairbanks Area.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
When we get to Thursday our Bering Sea low will have moved into
the Beaufort Sea. It will continue to move towards the northeast
into the weekend. With this low location, strong westerly winds
will begin to pick up along the Arctic Coastline Thursday
afternoon. The strongest winds will be near Kaktovik with wind
gusts up to 60 mph being possible. We will continue to see rain
chances along the Eastern Arctic Coastline into the weekend, and
snow chances in the Eastern Brooks Range.

Friday another stout low pressure will meander off the coast of
the Kamchatka Peninsula. There will be features rotating through
this area of low pressure. Saturday another low could potentially
spin up north of Atka bringing more chances of gusty winds and
rain chances to the west coast. There is a lot of uncertainity
regarding it`s track to determine if there are any potential
coastal concerns.

There are some signals towards the beginning of next week, that
the High pressure that has been in the Gulf of Alaska will begin
to move eastward. This would bring us out of the current weather
regime, where every North Pacific low goes into the Bering, and
would keep them in the North Pacific.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 2 through 4...
Coastal Flood Watches will remain in place this morning and will
be upgraded to warnings or advisories later today. There is still
quite a bit of spread for how high the water levels will get at
each community. And the difference between warning/advisory
doesn`t mean "impactful/non-impactful". This WILL impact every
community in different ways, including significant flooding and/or
significant erosion. While some places won`t see "warning level
flooding" there will be significant impacts to beaches, air
strips, dumps, and more. Details below.

We are anticipating 3 to 4 high tide cycles that will see higher
waters. While the highest water will be during high tide, there
will be very little difference between high tide and low tide.
While water may recede a bit during low tide, expect the water to
come back up. For communities that are south of the Bering Strait,
these high tides will be Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday morning, ,
Wednesday afternoon, and Thursday morning. North of the Bering
Strait it will be the two Wednesday high tides and the Thursday
high tides. There will still be concerns Thursday morning
particularly when the winds turn northwesterly from the Northern
Seward Peninsula to the Western Arctic Coast. Hooper Bay to Nunam
Iqua is expected to see 4 to 7 feet above mean high water (MHHW).
Stebbins to Shaktoolik will be 4 to 9 feet above MHHW. Koyuk will
have the highest water of 5 to 10 feet above MHHW. Elim to Wales
will see 4 to 8 feet above MHHW. Gambell and Savoonga will have 2
to 5 feet above MHHW, highest in Gambell on the west side.
Shishmaref to Kotzebue is expecting 3 to 8 feet above MHHW.
Kotzebue specifically should be prepared for flooding rivaling the
flooding event of 2024 as water levels may approach or exceed
that level (which was 6.5 feet). Red Dog to Point Lay is expecting
4 to 8 feet above MHHW. Wainwright to Utqiagvik is expecting 2 to
5 feet above MHHW.

We are expecting significant erosion for many along the coast
with coastal flooding likely, especially in more vulnerable
locations. Preparations should be made NOW for a strong coastal
storm everywhere along the coast as most, if not all communities
will see some sort of impact.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ801>803-815>818.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ847-849.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ820-821.
     Coastal Flood Watch for AKZ820>822-824-825-827.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ825-826.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ827.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-816-817-853-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-850-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803-852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ859-860.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Dennis