146
FXAK69 PAFG 170042
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
342 PM AKST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems moving through the Bering Sea
into Western Alaska starting tonight into Monday and continuing
through midweek will support gusty winds, widespread snow, and
warming temperatures along the West Coast and Western Interior. An
overlap of gusty winds and snow could lead to significant
reductions in visibility at times. Winds, snow chances, and warmer
temperatures will build into the Interior north to the North
Slope southwest to northeast as a more active and warmer pattern
begins to encompass Northern Alaska. Winter Storm Warnings and
Winter Advisories have been issued for the Yukon Delta north
through the Seward Peninsula and NW Arctic Coast for gusty winds
and snow/blowing snow, with a Wind Advisory in effect for Isabel
Pass along the Richardson Highway for strong gap winds. This
active weather pattern is expected to persist in the Bering Sea
and Gulf of Alaska to finish out the week, as a series of low
pressure systems and fronts moving into Alaska help to reinforce
warmer temperatures, winds, and snow chances to finish out the
week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Cold and dry conditions will continue across the Interior ahead
  of moisture from the Bering Sea building in southwest to
  northeast tonight into Monday and Tuesday with widespread light
  snowfall, heaviest in the Alaska Range.

- Southerly winds will ramp up through Windy Pass and Isabel Pass
  tonight through Monday, with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

- Following an extended stretch of cold, below normal
  temperatures, conditions will trend warmer through the upcoming
  work week.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A very active weather pattern ramps up tonight into Monday and
  continues through midweek as a series of storms in the Bering
  Sea impact Western Alaska with gusty winds, widespread snow, and
  warmer temperatures.

- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been
  issued along the West Coast and at St. Lawrence Island, where
  the heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected. Localized
  blizzard conditions are possible, leading to possible whiteout
  conditions at times.

- Strongest wind gusts through midweek will peak around 30-50 mph,
  strongest offshore and at St. Lawrence Island where gusts up to
  60 mph are possible.

- Temperatures see a steady warming trend throughout the early
  part of the week as a moist and warmer airmass moves in with
  southerly flow. While predominant snow is expected, a rain/snow
  mix will be possible across lowest elevations particularly along
  the southern coastlines.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Brooks
  Range and North Slope through tonight, with isolated snow
  showers and areas of fog along the Arctic Coast.

- E/NE winds prevail along the Arctic Coast, strongest further
  west out towards Point Hope and the Lisburne Peninsula where
  gusts up to 45 mph will continue through Monday.

- A system moving north across Western Alaska will support the
  return of widespread snow moving into the Central/Western Brooks
  Range Monday into Tuesday and NW Arctic Coast.

- Following an extended stretch of cold, below normal
  temperatures, conditions will trend warmer through the upcoming
  work week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a 960 mb low centered
near Nunivak Island lifting north along the West Coast, as a
series of lows move southwest across the North Slope and Beaufort
Sea. Models continue to close in on the agreement and track of
this low, showing the storm system steadily tracking north Monday
into Tuesday with widespread snow and gusty winds. As this low
ultimately moves north and is incorporated into a broader low over
the Chukchi Sea, a secondary system looks to fill quickly fill in
behind out in the Central Bering Sea and continue to drive
precipitation, warmer air, and gusty winds into Western Alaska.
There continues to be lesser confidence on this system which we
will continue to evaluate. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories are in effect through Wednesday along the West
Coast through midweek to best capture these snow and wind hazards.
Locations at times may see brief improvements to conditions
overall in between systems. Widespread snow chances building into
Southwest Alaska will shift northeast starting tonight into
Monday, with an overlap of snow and the strongest winds leading to
localized blizzard conditions at times.

Snowfall accumulations through Wednesday with this series of
systems will be highest across the West Coast/NW Arctic Coast,
Western Interior, Western and Central Brooks Range, and in the
Alaska Range. Here is where we are expecting a broad 3-6" with
higher totals in that 6-12" range across the Southern Seward
Peninsula, St. Lawrence Island, and higher elevations of the
Alaska Range/Brooks Range, locally higher across highest
elevations. As this system progresses north, winds will ramp up
across the West Coast, strongest offshore and at St. Lawrence
Island where wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected. Winds elsewhere
along the West Coast will see gusts peak around 30-50 mph. Due to
the warm air advection out of the south, there could also be a
few locations for the Southwest Coast of the Yukon Delta which may
have a mix of rain and snow. Here is where after the intrusion of
warm air builds in tomorrow, there is lower confidence on
significantly reduced visibilities in blowing snow. However, given
a cold airmass well entrenched along the West Coast ahead of this
storm, blizzard conditions will continue to be monitored for as
moisture builds in to this colder temperatures.

Across the Interior, a persistent cold and dry airmass will
ultimately give way to warming temperatures through the upcoming
work week as broad southerly flow encompasses the state. Low
pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and Southcentral tonight into
Monday will help to create a moderate gradient across the Interior
Sunday night into Monday This setup will remain favorable for
sub-advisory gap winds through Windy Pass and Isabel Pass with
gusts up to 50 mph late Sunday into Monday. Snow will build into
the Interior southwest to northeast Monday into Tuesday, with more
moderate snowfall amounts expected across the Western Interior
and Alaska Range with lighter amounts further east out along the
Alcan Border.

Coastal Hazard Potential Day 1 and 2...As a series of low
pressure systems move through the Bering Sea, minor rises above
MHHW are expected along southwestern portions of the West Coast
through midweek, particularly across the southern Yukon Delta
around Hooper Bay. Ice will help to reduce the possibility of this
scenario overall, but given the bulk of ice is not shorefast yet,
we will continue to monitor this over the coming days.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through next Sunday.
Overall ensembles remain in relatively good agreement with the
broad area of low pressure over the Bering Sea propagating
northward into the Chukchi Sea through the early part of the week,
and then expanding over into the Beaufort Sea, with the eastern
half of the state becoming more influenced by low pressure. This
is going to help to do two things for the Mainland; it will help
to warm temperatures as we see an increase of more cloud coverage
(and essentially lose more of the radiational cooling), and it
will also allow for an increase in moisture, with a more favorable
chance of snow for some locations. As this low also ejects up
through the Strait, the tightening of the gradient will allow for
stronger winds to remain more confined to the West Coast and
higher elevations of the Brooks Range and Alaska Range. For these
locations, these gusty winds and snow could lead to areas of
blowing and drifting snow, potentially significantly reducing
visibility at times with localized blizzard conditions.

The overall energy from this low is going to move into the Gulf
of Alaska towards the end of the week, and the southerly flow will
keep the relatively warmer airmass in place, which could lead to
some of the coastal areas along the Southwest Coast of the Y-K
Delta to get a mix of rain and snow ahead of the low moving into
the Gulf, but then transition back to snow with colder air
advection on the backside of this system. The moisture from the
south is going to expand across much of the Mainland towards the
end of the week, and then going into the following weekend, there
are beginning signals which indicate that a ridge could be
building back in towards the end of next weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814>819.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ822-823.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824>826.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-804.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805>807-852.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805>807-811-812-816-817-
     851>854-856>858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-850-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS.......MacKay
KEY MESSAGES...MacKay
SHORT TERM.....MacKay
LONG TERM......Stewey