593
FXAK69 PAFG 252232
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
132 PM AKST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure has influenced portions of the Eastern Interior
with light snow and/or flurries through this afternoon, and snow is
also being observed along the eastern Arctic Coast. As high pressure
continues to build in over the Chuckchi Sea and further strengthens
as it moves eastward into the Beaufort Sea, it will bring about
blustery, colder, and drier conditions to much of Northern Alaska
going into tomorrow. Stronger winds will begin to blow tonight into
much of the rest of the week for areas along Dalton Highway and for
the White Mountains, and this will last through much of the rest of
the work week. With this, there could be areas of reduced
visibilities due to blowing snow are possible as are difficult
travel conditions over Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits.
A pattern shift will occur for this upcoming weekend, as another
round of storms move into the region. This will continue into early
next week, with relatively more mild temperatures and better snow
chances. These storms will bring warmer temperatures and chances for
heavy precipitation across Northern Alaska. There could also be a
wintry mix, and/or a rain/snow mix for portions of the Southwest
Coast, and lower elevations within the Upper Tanana Valley and
southern Interior, as much warmer temperatures are advected up from
the south. If this occurs, it could make travel tricky due to icy
road conditions.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Light snow is possible in the Yukon Flats, Dalton Highway
  Summits, and the White Mountains through this evening.
  Accumulations would be from a dusting to a half an inch at best.

- Colder and drier conditions continue to set in through the rest
  of the work week. Nighttime temperatures will be in the single
  digits to teens below zero.

- Clouds will continue to clear through the work week.
  Temperatures decrease further in valley locations under clear
  skies as stronger temperature inversions develop. Temperatures
  and moisture will begin to increase this upcoming weekend with
  an increasing chance of precipitation going into the early part
  of next week.

- Increasing northeast winds tomorrow night, and last through
  much of the week. Areas of reduced visibility due to blowing
  snow are possible as are difficult travel conditions over
  Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits. A special weather
  statement has been issued which highlights these details.

- Stronger winds will begin to increase tonight across the Tanana
  Valley, which may allow for some of the locations, such as
  Delta Junction, to experience wind gusts for up to 50 mph going
  into tomorrow morning.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Near normal temperatures are expected until Thursday night when
  we see another push of warm air from the Bering Sea.

- Western Interior Valleys could see below normal temperatures
  pushing the teens below depending on the strength of the
  inversion that develops.

- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast will continue
  to increase through tomorrow. Easterly wind gusts 20 to 30 mph
  by Wednesday.

- Tomorrow night to Thursday evening could see snow showers in the
  Y-K Delta. Accumulations from these snow showers would be up to
  2". Thursday evening as warmer air begins to move into the
  area, these snow showers could turn into a rain/snow mix.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Low Stratus and light snow will continue across the Eastern
  Arctic Coastline through tonight, and then continue to taper off
  going into tomorrow morning.

- Conditions will begin to dry out tonight, bringing clear skies
  and cooler temperatures. Temperatures will remain near normal
  with lows near 0 on the coast and teens below on the arctic
  plains.

- Easterly winds across the Arctic Coast will be 20 to 30 mph,
  and will hang around for the rest of the week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
High pressure located to the north over the Arctic Ocean, along with
troughing to the south, has produced a tighter gradient across the
Interior and will allow for strong and gusty winds across the higher
terrain, especially for the White Mountains. Due to this, there
could be some blowing snow concerns along Dalton Highway for
locations which have received more significant amounts of snowfall
recently. Because of this, a Special Weather Statement issued which
highlights all of these details. Weak troughing over the Bering
Strait and an area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska is
influencing the West Coast with some light snow showers, and onshore
flow is also providing some light snow across the northeast Arctic
Coast. These snow showers will be tapering off overnight and
conditions will continue to cool and dry across the region
throughout the rest of the week before becoming more influenced by
the approaching trough for this upcoming weekend.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Ensembles have continued to show a strong signal of a broad area of
troughing moving up towards the Bering Sea, with multiple major
shortwaves propagating up towards southwestern Alaska. The upper
level jet with this feature will be tapping into moisture getting
advected up from around 20N, which is producing very high PWAT
values since it is derived from subtropical moisture, and thus is
indicating a much wetter and more mild shift in the pattern going
into this upcoming weekend. Depending on the track of these
associated waves, this could prove to be more impactful for our area
if these lows take more of a westerly track into the Bering Sea,
although nearly all of the ensemble members are now trending towards
a less impactful solution as the overall position of the low has now
shifted further south (and now south of the Aleutian Islands) than
what they were displaying yesterday. A strong ridge positioned over
Siberia is going to help to block this area of low pressure from
getting up into the Bering Sea. Ensembles members have also shown a
slight decrease in the amount of precipitable water for portions of
the Interior, which aligns with the low not getting as far north,
and remaining in the Gulf, with downsloping of the southerly winds
across the Alaska Range, instead of the southwesterly flow pumping
in more moisture and warmer air into the Interior if the low was to
take a more northwesterly track.

Deterministic models have been tightening up a bit with better
agreement as to how the primary major shortwave trough will track as
it approaches the Aleutians going into Friday. The latest 12Z runs
of the ECMWF and GFS have the first major shortwave becoming
occluded as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska, with the main low
along the triple-point slightly undergoing cyclogenesis
(strengthening) as it propagates up from the south and just to the
east of Kodiak Island, with the surface low depending to around
980mb, and the decaying low positioned south of Unimak Island. This
track is going to result in a drier solution for the Southwest
Coast and southern Interior, as we get more downsloped. That
being said, there is still some uncertainty with this, and could
still prove to be impactful for some of the Southwest Coast and
Interior (as models have indicated temperatures over freezing at
the 850 mb level within the southerly flow ahead of the frontal
boundary associated with this system), which may lead to potential
icing concerns for some of the lower elevations. This southerly
flow will also keep conditions more moist, with chances of snow
increasing across all of Alaska going into the early next week as
multiple waves continue to move up into the Gulf through then.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802>804-812.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805>807-810-850-853-854-
     856>858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-817-850-851-854-857-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
&&

$$

Stewey