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FXAK69 PAFG 202227 AAA
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
127 PM AKST Thu Nov 20 2025

Updated spelling mistake in extended

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather is quieting down on the West Coast with weakening
winds and snow showers diminishing in coverage. Snow will be
moving into the Central and Eastern Interior as early as today,
but the bulk of the steadiest snow arrives tomorrow
afternoon/evening and continues through Sunday. The North Slope, Beaufort
Sea Coast and Brooks Range will also see light snow develop
tomorrow and continue through Sunday. Colder and drier weather
arrives next week for most places in Northern Alaska.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- A few flurries or light snow showers today, steady snow arrives
  Friday afternoon/evening and continues through Sunday.
- Snow accumulations will be heavy, 6 to 12 inches, in the White
   Mountains and portions of the Eastern Interior, specifically
   north and west of Eagle.
- 2 to 4 inches in Fairbanks area (including Eielson).
- 1 to 3 inches from Delta to Nenana north/west to Bettles.
- Little to no snow accumulations from Tok south/east.

- Dry and colder weather settles in next week.

- Decreasing clouds Sunday afternoon into the overnight,
  temperatures drop across the board to the single digits for
  highs and below zero for lows.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Snow showers and wind gusts diminishing with drying conditions
  becoming more prevalent along the coast. Light snow for the
  Western Interior Friday and Saturday with accumulations around
  an inch or 2.

- Drier and colder weather next week.

- Temperatures in the 20s to near 30 along the coast, then
  decreasing through the weekend with highs in the single digits
  and teens, and lows near or below 0 for many next week.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Light snow develops on the Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast and in the
  Brooks Range tomorrow. Snow accumulations will be around 1 to 3
  inches with a couple of spots near 4 inches in the Eastern
  Brooks Range and near Kaktovik.

- Drier and colder weather returns next week.

- Widespread temperatures in the single digits with lows near or
  below 0 along the coast, and potentially in the teens to 20s
  below zero in the Brooks Range next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

An upper low near the AK Peninsula this morning is moving towards
South-Central this afternoon at about 501 decameters. This will
send a strong front northward into the Interior later today and
into Friday. The front will run into a 519 decameter ridge over
the Beaufort Sea on Friday causing it to stall and undergo weak
cyclogenesis near northern Yukon Territory. As a weak upper low
gradually develops, it will wrap moisture from the Bering Sea lows
to the Interior. The upper level energy, mid level moisture and
cold temperatures will combine to produce widespread light to
moderate snow this weekend across most of the Interior and North
Slope. One slight change to this is, a a ridge in the Bering will
be moving in, this has been strengthening on nearly every model
run since yesterday. A stronger ridge moving in, could potentially
provide more dry air to the Interior. This could be a reason for
lower snowfall totals from the snow event this weekend.

Nonetheless, widespread light to moderate snow from Friday
through the weekend may accumulate pretty substantially in some
spots. The highest snowfall totals will reside north and east of
Fairbanks, specifically the White Mountains, Steese Highway
Summits and out towards the AlCan Border north of Eagle. In and
around Fairbanks, expect around 2 to 4 inches. There is still a
possibility for more, as the heaviest snow begins about 30 miles
northeast of Fairbanks. South and west of Fairbanks, expect about
1 to 3 inches with totals diminishing the farther from Fairbanks
you are.

A couple of aspects that may change these snowfall totals are dry
air, heavier convective banding, and/or a farther southwest
progression of the upper low in Canada. All of these factors can
either diminish snowfall or increase it locally. However, given
the trends, we don`t anticipate a farther southwest progression,
but there may be more dry air (meaning less snow, especially from
Fairbanks west). Finally, with strong vorticity at 700 and 500mb,
convective banding is likely. It is almost impossible to say where
these bands will set up, but where they set up will most likely
see heavier snow than their surroundings.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
A ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Bering Sea
before making its way into the Chukchi Sea and eventually over
the Arctic by next Tuesday. This pattern will usher in colder and
drier weather across the state, which for the time being, looks to
persist well into next week. Simultaneously, a low will make its
way over the Aleutian Islands and move eastward into the Gulf of
Alaska. Depending on how the low moves and situates itself, this
could allow for a strong pressure gradient to set up across the
Interior, increasing the potential for some gusty winds within the
Tanana Valley. However, given model disagreement that far out,
confidence remains low. Overall, mostly quiet weather is expected
next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ833>835-838-842.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-809.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ807-816-817-851-854-858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-811.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813>815-859-861.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853-857.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

Bianco
Extended - Santiago