512
FXAK69 PAFG 221204
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
304 AM AKST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow continues in the Eastern Interior north of the Tok. Heavier
bands of snow amongst the more widespread light snow may lead to
locally higher snowfall totals. Snow diminishes Saturday night
through Sunday. Gusty northwesterly winds along the West Coast
continue to weaken through Saturday. Increasing pressure from the
West and Northwest will bring colder and drier conditions to
Northern Alaska early next week. There is potential for a warmer
and wetter pattern late next week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Steadier snow continues through Saturday night. Some showers
  remain early Sunday. Storm total snow is listed below.
- 6 to 12 inches of heavy snow in the White Mountains and
   elevated terrain south of the Yukon Flats. A Winter Storm
   Warning has been issued for heavy snow. The heaviest snow will
   be north and east of Eagle Summit, especially near Circle and
   Chalkyitsik.
- 2 to 4 inches in Fairbanks area (including Eielson), though
   areas beneath heavier bands of snow could see 6+" similar to
   the White Mountains.
- 1 to 3 inches from Delta to Nenana north/west to Bettles.
- Little to no snow accumulations from Tok south/east.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.
- Temperatures fall to highs in the low teens to single digits
   and lows in the negative teens to single digits by Tuesday.

- Clouds clear late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures decrease
  further in valley locations under clear skies as stronger
  temperature inversions develop.

- Increasing northeast winds Monday through next week. Areas of
  blowing snow and low visibility with difficult travel conditions
  over Dalton, Elliott, and Steese Highway Summits next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Showery snow and gusty northwesterly winds slowly diminish
  Saturday.
- Isolated snow showers linger through Saturday. Accumulations
   less than an inch.
- North-northwesterly winds along the coast with gusts 25 to 35
   mph. Western Interior gusts 15 to 25 mph.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.
- Temperatures fall from the 20s to single digits over the
   weekend to the teens and single digits by Monday.
- Western Interior Valleys lows fall to the negative single
   digits late Sunday into Monday.

- Winds shift east-northeast along the West Coast Sunday into
  Monday and increase Monday into Wednesday. Easterly wind gusts
  20 to 30 mph by Wednesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Areas of light snow continue on the Slope, Beaufort Sea Coast
  and in the Brooks Range this weekend. Snow accumulations will be
  around 1 to 3 inches with a couple of spots near 4 inches in
  the Eastern Brooks Range and near Kaktovik through Sunday.

- Colder and drier conditions return next week.
- Temperatures fall from the teens to single digits to the single
   digits to near 0 Monday along the coast.
- In the Brooks Range Valleys temperatures fall into the negative
   teens and possibly the negative 20s.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
For Saturday morning through Monday night.
At the start of the forecast period, Saturday morning, a messy
trough sits over eastern Alaska and a more organized ridge builds
into the Bering Sea. This trough is composed of two main upper
level lows located near Kodiak Island and just east of the Brooks
Range in Canada, both around 515 decameters in strength and one
weaker upper level low over the Western Interior around 520
decameters in strength. A 526 decameter upper level high near
Point Barrow is strengthened by the ridge in the Bering Sea. The
low east of the Brooks Range is fueling snowfall across the
Eastern Interior. Bands of snow are moving from north to south,
bringing heavier snow to the White Mountains and elevated terrain
north and east of Fairbanks. The low in the Western Interior is
helping to support some of this snowfall too allowing some light
snow to reach as far west as the Upper Kuskokwim River. Individual
bands of snow embedded in this pattern may be strong enough to
over-perform and generate localized areas of more snow than
expected.

Another, stronger, upper level low around 506 decameters strong
moves east from the northwest Pacific to just south of the
Aleutians late Saturday through Sunday. This low cuts off the
ridge in the Bering Sea, creating a more distinct upper level high
near the Chukotsk Peninsula which combines with the high over the
North Slope into a 550 decameter upper level high over the Chukchi
Sea by Monday morning. This low south of the Aleutians becomes
less organized and allows several smaller lows and shortwaves to
rotate around it early next week. Confidence is low on the exact
timing and placement of these features but they should mostly
remain south of the Yukon Delta. The lows to the east weaken and
get pushed further east by this building high pressure allowing it
to dominate Northern Alaska, bringing colder, drier, and clearer
conditions to areas north of the Alaska Range through much of next
week.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
For Tuesday through next Saturday.
At the start of the extended forecast period, Tuesday, a strong
upper level Arctic high pressure around 552 decameters sits over
the Chukchi Sea and a messy upper level low around 515 decameters
spins south of the Aleutians which will slowly weaken through the
week. These two features interact to generate gusty easterly flow
across the Interior and West Coast. Areas that recently received
snowfall may be vulnerable to periods of reduced visibility due to
blowing snow. This high brings colder, drier, and clearer
conditions through much of next week to the region.

Later next week, another low moves from the west across the North
Pacific and phases with the weakening low south of the Aleutians
Thursday. This creates a very amplified pattern Friday into next
weekend with a strong upper level low in the North Pacific and a
developing ridge in the northeastern Pacific stretching towards
the Arctic high which will have moved slowly east towards the
Eastern Arctic Coast. This highly amplified pattern could produce
a strong atmospheric river transporting moisture from as far south
as 20N towards Alaska. If that develops, then significantly
warmer and wetter conditions are possible across Northern Alaska
potentially bringing large amounts of wintry mix and rain to areas
of the Interior. Confidence is still low on the exact details of
this feature due to how far out it is, but there is good run to
run consistency in the models and relatively good ensemble
agreement. The biggest area of potential uncertainty is in how
this next low phases with the previous one and where exactly an
atmospheric river could develop. Further west solutions would be
more likely to bring rain to the Interior, but it is still unclear
on how this system will develop. Regardless it will still be
strong enough to bring significant warming and much more moisture
to the state.


Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ833-834.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ838-842.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-804>807-852-853-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-806-853-854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816-817-854-857-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-857-858.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

Stokes