404
FXAK69 PAFG 012142
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
142 PM AKDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of quick moving disturbances will keep conditions
unsettled through the end of the week and into the weekend. This
means that a combination of snow, rain, and even wind can be
expected from the west coast into the interior. Further north
enough cold air will be in place to keep most of the precipitation
in the form of snow. However conditions will be rather blustery
along the Arctic coastline. Meanwhile attention will turn towards
the west again late weekend and early next week as a potential
coastal storm is expected to push into the Bering Strait.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Active weather returns with rain and snow in the Interior
  beginning tonight and continuing through the weekend.

- Snow Accumulations through Friday:
- 3 to 6 inches in Isabel Pass south of Trims Camp and 4 to 9
      inches on the Steese Highway Summits.
- 1 to 2 inches on the Dalton Highway Summits and an inch or less
      for most other spots.

- Rain is likely in the valleys this evening with some snow
  tonight into Thursday morning. Friday looks to be a mess with
  mixed rain and snow across most of the Interior, transitioning
  to mostly rain outside of the highway summits on Saturday.

- Warmer southwest flow ahead of an approaching Bering Sea storm
  system will result in warming temperatures late weekend and
  early next week, resulting in rapid snow melt at elevations
  below 5000ft.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A mixture of rain, snow, and winds will taper off this evening
  with some rain and snow continuing along the NW Arctic Coast tonight.

- Another wave of rain and snow arrives Thursday afternoon and
  continues through Friday, then a stronger front with warm air
  and more rain arrives Friday afternoon/evening.

- The snow will mostly reside inland from the coast from the
  Seward Peninsula north and east through Friday with mostly rain
  everywhere on Saturday.

- Stronger winds will return Saturday, across the West Coast, as a
  low pressure system pushes north from the Aleutians.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- The Western and Central Brooks Range will be active with rounds
  of snow and rain through the evening and into early Thursday.

- Another round of rain/snow sets in Thursday night over the
  Brooks Range and will continue into Saturday.

- Gusty NE winds, between 35 and 45 mph, will continue across the
  NW Arctic Coast through Thursday morning.

- Along the Slope and Coast, expect areas of light snow, flurries
  and fog to persist with only minor snow accumulations.

- Temperatures will in the low to mid 30s along the coast with 20s
  to near 30 on the north side of the Brooks Range and 30s to near
  40 for the south side of the Brooks Range.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Our typical active Fall weather pattern looks to continue for the
foreseeable future. A closed low currently approaching the Norton
Sound is expected to open up and weaken a bit as it pushes
eastward across Alaska`s interior. In doing so southerly flow
ahead of the approaching trough will bring moisture northwards
over the Alaska Range, producing widespread light rain and snow
showers to the interior with somewhat heavier precipitation for
the Alaska Range itself. The passes through the Alaska Range will
likely see some impactful slushy snow tonight through Thursday.

Immediately in the wake of the passing trough, another shortwave
will track eastward across the northern half of the state. This
will also manage to tap some moisture from the southwest, thus
keeping widespread precipitation chances in place for Friday and
Saturday. Enough cold air will still be in place north of the
Alaska Range to help produce heavier snow across portions of the
White Mountains and along the Dalton Highway Summits. QPF values
of .25" to .50" should translate to 4 to 6 inches of snow across
higher terrain, thus prompting the issuance of a Winter Weather
Advisory as this next wave of snow moves in Friday & Saturday.

Meanwhile, ridging aloft will build back in over the eastern half
of Alaska from the northern Gulf to the northeast Arctic
coastline as the weekend progresses. This will force future low
pressure systems into the Bering, increasing the threats for
coastal storm impacts over the weekend and into next week
(specific details in the Extended portion below). One thing to
note with this shift to a more western storm track is the fact
that warmer air aloft will begin to move north into the Interior
where recent snow will likely begin to melt as 850 mb temps climb
(details below in the Hydrology section). This will also help
portions of the interior return to highs in the 50`s later in the
weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a bit of concern heading into this weekend and next
week. Numerous rounds of rain and snow will move through Northern
Alaska almost on a daily basis into the weekend and beyond.
Through early next week, there may be widespread 1 to 3 inches of
liquid precipitation across the area. Some of this will fall as
snow, especially in the higher terrain, but some of it may melt as
snow levels increase to nearly 5000ft in the Interior. Next week
there is a lot of uncertainty with temperatures but there is a
chance that highs will be in the upper 40s or low 50s in the
Interior, and this could melt a lot of the already accumulated
snow across the higher terrain. If this happens, it would only add
to the rain water entering the river system. At the very least,
we should expect gravel bars to be covered but as of now, we are
not anticipating any flooding.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...from Previous Discussion
Strong high pressure systems in the Northern Pacific will force
low pressure systems to move into the Bering Sea several times
through the extended forecast period. The first of these large
Bering Sea lows enters the Southern Bering Sea Friday evening and
moves northeast towards the West Coast. This low enters the Bering
Sea around 980mb in strength, but strengthens as it moves
northeast. A long fetch of southwest flow aloft aids moisture
transport ahead of the storm and helps to enhance the low as it
moves further north Saturday. The enhanced moisture transport will
allow additional rain and snow to reach deeper into the Interior
Thursday through Saturday. Snow is expected at first, but as the
low strengthens and moves further north, warmer temperatures wrap
around it from the south and are pulled into the Interior causing
much of the snow to change to rain Saturday. Along the West Coast,
strong southerly winds are expected across the Yukon Delta as the
storm moves further north, currently expected to peak Saturday
night with gusts around 55 mph possible. Strong northeasterly
winds through the Chukchi Sea Saturday will begin to shift as the
low advances north through the Bering Strait. Widespread light to
moderate rains are expected along the West Coast Saturday and
Sunday as the low approaches. Winds and rains are expected to
diminish Sunday into Monday as the low slowly weakens in the
Chukchi Sea.

Tuesday and Wednesday will see another low move into the Western
Bering and then repeat many of the same conditions as this first one
over the weekend. It strengthens rapidly in the Bering, but is
expected further west providing some limits on the strongest coastal
winds. Widespread rain with snow possible at higher elevations is
expected once more. This pattern likely repeats yet again late next
week as yet another strong low pressure enters the Western Bering
and moves towards the West Coast. The exact track and strength of
these latter two lows is still uncertain, but wet, windy, weather is
expected to continue for the West Coast and Western Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Water levels look to be around 1 to 4 feet above the normal high
tide line over the weekend. The highest water levels, potentially
up to 4 feet above the normal high tide line, will be in Eastern
Norton Sound with lower levels around 1 to 2 feet elsewhere.

-Stokes

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834-838-842.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-811-850-851-856-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-816-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807>810-855.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
&&

$$

Laney