273
FXAK69 PAFG 161527
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
627 AM AKST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad area of low pressure is going to be moving into the Bering
Sea today through tomorrow, which will support widespread gusty
winds, snow, and warming temperatures spreading into the Mainland
from the southwest. An overlap of gusty winds and snow could lead to
significant reductions in visibility at times. Winter Storm Watches
are now in effect starting later today and into tomorrow for the
Yukon Delta, Norton Sound Coastline, and Seward Peninsula for gusty
winds and snow/blowing snow. A continued active weather pattern is
expected to persist in the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska through
midweek, as a series of low pressure systems and fronts moving into
Alaska help to reinforce warmer temperatures, winds, and snow
chances to finish out the week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the
  Interior through today, with areas of low stratus and patchy
  fog, in addition to isolated snow showers tonight into Sunday
  primarily out towards Tok, Northway, and Eagle. This will begin
  to transition to a warmer pattern, with an increase of the
  chance of snow going into the early part of the week.

- Highs in the single digits above and below zero with lows in
  the single and double digits below zero. Coldest locations
  mostly out across the Yukon Flats will see highs in the double
  digits below zero with overnight lows bottoming out around 20 to
  30 below.

- Southerly winds are expected to ramp up through Windy Pass and
  Isabel Pass later tonight through tomorrow, with gusts up to 50
  mph expected. Further details can be found with the Wind
  Advisory in effect for this area.

- Temperatures trend warmer tomorrow into Tuesday as isolated to
  scattered snow chances return across much of the Interior.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- A much more active weather pattern ramps up beginning Monday
  and continuing through much of next week as a series of storms
  in the Bering Sea lift north along the West Coast with gusty
  winds, widespread snow, and warmer temperatures.

- Winter Storm Watches are now in effect starting later today
  through tomorrow for the Yukon Delta, Norton Sound Coastline,
  and Seward Peninsula for gusty winds and snow. Total snow
  accumulations around 2-5", locally higher around 3-8" across the
  southern Seward Peninsula.

- Strongest winds today and tomorrow will remain offshore and at
  St. Lawrence Island, where gusts up to 50 mph are possible.
  Winds elsewhere along the West Coast will see gusts peak around
  20-40 mph.

- Temperatures see a steady warming trend throughout the early
  part of the week as a moist and warmer airmass moves in with
  southerly flow.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- Cold and mostly dry conditions will continue across the Brooks
  Range and North Slope through today, with isolated snow showers
  and areas of fog along the Arctic Coast.

- E/NE winds prevail along the Arctic Coast into early next week,
  strongest further west out towards Point Hope and the Lisburne
  Peninsula where gusts up to 45 mph will continue.

- Highs in the single and double digits below zero in the Brooks
  Range and Arctic Plains to single digits above and below zero
  along the coast. Lows in the single and double digits below
  zero, with coldest areas bottoming out at around 20 to 30 below.

- Temperatures continue to trend warmer going into Tuesday as
  isolated to scattered snow chances return.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Tonight through Tuesday.
At around 5 AM, GOES-19 satellite imagery, as well as pressure
fields, puts the position of the triple-point associated with the
broad area of low pressure moving into the Bering Sea to be located
just north of Unimak Island within the Aleutian Island chain, and is
expected to intensity as it continues to progress northward
throughout the day. This will allow for a tightening of the gradient
to produce some very strong and gusty winds for the Yukon Delta,
Norton Sound Coastline, and Seward Peninsula. When analyzing this
with deterministic models, all of the models are tightening up with
the propagation of this low, although the timing is a little quicker
with the ECMWF, which may result in a quicker timing with the
arrival of the associated frontal boundary, and thus a quicker onset
with the winds and snow bands moving in if it verifies (this appears
to have had a slightly better handle on the movement and position of
the low). The low appears to become stalled out to the southwest of
Nunivak Island by later this evening, before transitioning up
towards the Bering Strait and eventually over the Seward Peninsula.
As it does, expect snow to expand across the West Coast, and winds
to increase out of the east/northeast, along with blowing snow and
reduced visibilities at times.

This low is expected to deepen to around 960mb before it stalls
out (about a -10mb drop). As the pressure gradient continues to
weaken going into tomorrow morning, winds will also abate. Snow
will continue to spread across the Norton Sound into the Seward
Peninsula, with the southern portion getting the most snowfall
expected of generally between 3 to 5 inches through tomorrow, and
locally up to 8 inches for some locations. Due to the warmer air
advection, there could also be a few locations for the Southwest
Coast of the Y-K Delta which may have a mix of rain and snow.
There is also lower confidence that a few areas could experience
blizzard conditions at times with significantly reduced
visibilities in blowing snow. Further details of this are provided
in the Winter Storm Watch. There are still going to be some
stronger winds right along the northwest coast of the Lisburne
Peninsula, with locations such as Utqiagvik (Barrow) experiencing
strong and gusty winds, with blowing snow (and even some blowing
sea spray) being possible at time for these coastal sites. These
winds will begin to shift more southward towards the Bering Strait
as the area of low pressure approaches the region.

Behind that, a weaker area of low pressure will follow in behind it,
which will also help to reinforce southerly flow and expand more
moisture up across the Brooks Range and help to expand more moisture
into the North Slope. Subsequently, there will be another area of
low pressure moving up into the Gulf of Alaska, which will also help
to increase southeasterly flow across the Upper Tanana Valley and
eventually into the eastern Interior. The tightening of the pressure
gradient, and increased gap flow through Isabel Pass will likely
cause some gusts to approach (and may exceed) 55 mph. For this
reason, there is a Wind Advisory in effect for this area for later
tonight through tomorrow afternoon. This will also help to break up
the inversion and allow temperatures to become more modified and
warmer, with an increased chance of snow for more of the eastern
portion of the mainland going into Tuesday.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Tuesday night through next Saturday.
Overall ensembles are remain in relatively good agreement with the
broad area of low pressure over the Bering Sea propagating northward
into the Chukchi Sea through the early part of the week, and then
expanding over into the Beaufort Sea, with the eastern half of the
state becoming more influenced by low pressure. This is going to
help to do two things for the Mainland; it will help to warm
temperatures as we see an increase of more cloud coverage (and
essentially lose more of the radiational cooling), and it will also
allow for an increase in moisture, with a more favorable chance of
snow for some locations. As this low also ejects up through the
Strait, the tightening of the gradient will allow for stronger winds
to remain more confined to the West Coast and higher elevations of
the Brooks Range and Alaska Range. For these locations, these gusty
winds and snow could lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow,
potentially significantly reducing visibility at times with
localized blizzard conditions.

The overall energy from this low is going to move into the Gulf of
Alaska towards the end of the week, and the southerly flow will keep
the relatively warmer airmass in place, which could lead to some of
the coastal areas along the Southwest Coast of the Y-K Delta to get
a mix of rain and snow ahead of the low moving into the Gulf, but
then transition back to snow with colder air advection on the
backside of this system. The moisture from the south is going to
expand across much of the Mainland towards the end of the week, and
then going into the following weekend, there are beginning signals
which indicate that a ridge could be building back in towards the
end of next weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ822-823-827.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ824>826.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805>807-811-812-816-852-854-
     856>858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ807-853-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-816-851-854-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817-850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850-853.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
&&

$$

Stewey