785
FXAK67 PAJK 181933 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1033 AM AKST Tue Nov 18 2025

.Mid Morning and 18z Aviation Update...
Minor changes to ongoing forecast as a weakening low just
offshore of Yakutat pushes inland through the afternoon. Seeing
some marginal instability and isolated lightning over the NE Gulf
and coastal Baranof Island, so added slight chance of
thunderstorms through the rest of the the afternoon. Otherwise,
Tuesday continues to be a "break" day in comparison to the rest of
the week, with mostly cloudy skies and rain chances diminishing
through the late evening for a brief this evening before an active
weather day returns on Wednesday.

&&

.Aviation../until 18z Wednesday/
MVFR to VFR flight conditions with CIGS AoB 5000ft and
intermittent visbys down to 3SM ongoing across the panhandle this
morning as a weak low and associated front push into the N Gulf.
Through the rest of the afternoon, trends will remain generally
the same, with minor improvement to generally more low-end VFR
through 00z to 06z this evening with a very brief break between
systems through Tuesday night. By 12z Wednesday morning, flight
conditions will begin to deteriorate to predominate MVFR or worse
from S to N across the panhandle with CIGS AoB 3500ft as a strong
front pushes along the coast through 18z Wednesday.

Winds across the N panhandle will increase through Tuesday
afternoon due to aforementioned system pushing inland with
strongest sustained winds around 15 to 25kts with gusts up to 25
to 35kts for the Icy Corridor and northward, including Juneau.
Strongest winds will remain near TAF sites like Haines and at
Skagway, continuing through Tuesday afternoon. Winds across the S
panhandle expected to be lighter through Tuesday afternoon, around
10kts or less, but will increase by 12z Wednesday up to 15kts
with gusts up to 25kts as the aforementioned strong system pushes
into the S Panhandle.

Main aviation concern will be strong SE-ly LLWS around 30 to 40kts
developing by 12z Tuesday morning for the coastal and S Panhandle
TAF sites, increasing through early Wednesday afternoon to around
45 to 55kts. Strongest LLWS expected along the coast of Baranof
and Prince of Wales Island and south of a line from Sitka over to
Petersburg through the rest of Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 627 AM AKST Tue Nov 18 2025...

SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:
- Light precipitation continues and winds slightly decrease Tuesday
  ahead of a larger system that moves north into the gulf late
  tonight.

- A High Wind Warning and Watches are in effect for areas along
  the central to southern coast due to a strong front pushing
  into the panhandle Wednesday morning.

- Active weather continues for the panhandle with multiple systems
  arriving this week.

SHORT TERM...Times of light to moderate precipitation continue for
parts of the northern panhandle this morning as a weak low pushes
inland. This low is keeping winds along the northern panhandle
strong with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph
this morning. The strongest of these wind are near Skagway. As this
low pushes inland, winds along the gulf will diminish allowing for a
short break this afternoon before the next system arrives this
evening. At that time, a strong low pushes north sending a front
into the southern Gulf of Alaska. This front will bring strong gale
force winds to the eastern gulf coast beginning late Tuesday. Land
winds will begin to increase late Tuesday into Wednesday as the
front pushes inland. With the strongest winds occurring along the
central to southern gulf coast waters. Confidence has increased in
High winds with gusts near 60 mph to occur over southwestern Prince
of Wales Island, so a High Wind warning has been issued. A High Wind
Watch remains in effect for Ketchikan and Annette Island which is
dependent on if the front can keep its strength as it pushes inland
Wednesday. Baranof Island has also been added to the High Wind Watch
as increased winds are likely as the parent low continues to move
northward. See the long term decision for more information on this
mid week system.

LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Saturday/...An active pattern
continues across southeast Alaska through the rest of the week with
a complex scenario in the books for Wednesday into Thursday. The
impactful change in the long term forecast is the shift in model
guidance to spin up a much more vigorous triple point low or
embedded trough in the southeast gulf ahead of the parent low. The
primary low is still expected to push into the southern gulf by
Wednesday afternoon, however this extra feature will bring
enhanced winds to the southern panhandle and coastal waters by
early Wednesday morning, spreading northward with widespread
gales. Depending on when and where this embedded feature develops,
it could get a jumpstart from the backside of an upper level
ridge over the panhandle just ahead of the parent low at the
surface. Due to this uncertainty in strength and the range of
potential impacts, a high wind watch has been issued for the
southern panhandle including Ketchikan, Metlakatla, and Prince of
Wales Island. For Prince of Wales Island, the southern coast is
the area where the highest winds are expected to occur. As of this
forecast issuance, the timing of the highest winds with gusts up
to 60 mph out of the southeast would be between 9am and 3 pm
Wednesday.

Regardless of track, strong winds will accompany this feature as it
swings northward through the panhandle Wednesday, along with
moderate to locally heavy precipitation. The heaviest
precipitation is still expected to be limited to south of
Frederick Sound. However, a more northward track of this embedded
trough could bring moderate moisture further north, leading to
higher snowfall for the Haines and Klondike Highways, which are
expected to remain cold enough to maintain primarily snow along
higher elevations. Elsewhere, temperatures in the low levels are
expected to remain warm enough for cold rain, with some snow
potentially mixing in with heavier rates along the Icy Strait
corridor and for Haines and Skagway at sea level. This will likely
be dependent upon how long winds in Lynn Canal stay northerly
ahead of the arrival of precipitation. Overall high temperatures
will continue to range from the upper 40s in the south to the low
40s in the north. Extensive cloud cover and persistent
precipitation will moderate temperatures in the northern
panhandle.

Fresh on the heels of this, another system will form south of the
Alaska Peninsula and push a gale force front across the gulf
towards the panhandle Thursday night into Friday, transitioning
the panhandle to predominantly onshore southwesterly flow Friday
into Saturday. This front is expected to bring gale force winds
to the gulf waters along with widespread moderate to heavy
precipitation to a majority of the panhandle. The heaviest
precipitation is expected along outer coastal communities, with 24
hour totals from Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon 1.5 to
2.5 inches, and locally higher amounts at higher elevations and
westward facing slopes. For communities in the inner channels,
storm totals look to be closer to 0.75 inches to 1.5 inches. As
with earlier in the week, a lack of a significant cold continental
airmass in the inner channels will likely limit any snow
potential for communities at sea level. Haines and Skagway cannot
be ruled out, especially higher elevations of the Chilkat
Peninsula. Also, the track of the low on Wednesday into Thursday
could serve to prime the northern inner channels for snow if it
induces a northerly gradient for long enough. Stay tuned for
forecast updates as the week progresses.

Overall a very dynamic setup with potential for higher land and
marine impacts if this triple point low develops and tracks just
off of the outer coast. Stay tuned for the latest forecast updates
as we head into midweek.

MARINE...
Inside Waters:
Increased winds continue across the northern inner
channels as a weak low pushes into inland over the far northern
panhandle. The strongest of these winds are over Lynn Canal that is
keeping areas of strong breezes, up to 25 kts, as of early this
morning. As this low pushes inland, these winds will relax giving a
short break ahead of a stronger system entering the gulf late
tonight. A storm force low moves into the gulf Wednesday bringing
gale force wind gusts to much of the central and southern inner
channels. The strongest of these winds are likely to occur Wednesday
afternoon as the associated front pushes across the panhandle. A
healthy fetch of strong-gale force winds in Queen Charlotte
Sound/Hecate Strait will drive stout southeasterly seas of 12 to
perhaps 18 ft into southern Clarence.

Outside Waters:
Winds across the gulf diminish through this morning
as a weak low moves inland. This allows for a short break with
slightly decreased winds near 15 to 20 kts this afternoon into early
evening. Seas remain elevated around 10 ft with a southwest swell.

On Wednesday a 970 mb low continues to trend stronger, with
southerly strong-gales likely for much of the coast and areas of
storm force winds possible. The published forecast has matched this
trend, with southeasterly seas near 23 to 27 ft likely with the
associated fetch duration and wind strength. There is a chance to
see storm force winds Wednesday morning along the outer coast.
Something to watch carefully over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for AKZ319.
     High Wind Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for
     AKZ323-330-332.
     High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ328.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-642-661>664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-035-036-053-643-644-651-652-671-
     672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...EAB

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