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FXAK67 PAJK 121823 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
923 AM AKST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- Weakening low over the northern gulf with lingering showers
  ending Wednesday morning.

- Northerly and easterly winds begin midweek bringing cooler
  temperatures and drier conditions across the panhandle
  Wednesday and Thursday night.

- Active weather returns at the end of the week continuing into
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A welcome break in the active weather pattern is on
the way as chances of precipitation subside through Wednesday. A
decaying low continues to cling to life over the Northern gulf,
sending showers across the northern half of the panhandle.
Further to the south, a weak low level ridge is keeping the bulk
of another system away from the panhandle, with only upper level
cloud cover prevailing across parts of the area.

Through the day on Wednesday, the low in the northern gulf finally
gives up the ghost, and disintegrates entirely as its associated
upper level trough moves east, crossing the panhandle. In its wake,
an upper level ridge begins building over the Gulf on Thursday. For
SE AK, this means drying weather conditions. As the low falls apart,
onshore flow collapses across most of the area, and with it, the
chances of showers. While the outer coast may still see a few
isolated showers through tonight as the trough axis sweeps through,
more interior areas, including Juneau, will see a reprieve from
precip beginning Wednesday afternoon and lasting through Thursday.

Temperatures will plummet across much of the panhandle Wednesday
night as skies begin to clear due to weak offshore flow which is
expected to establish itself after the previous onshore flow
ceased. Lows will be in the 20s to 30s across the panhandle, with
more sheltered areas expected to receive the coldest of these
temperatures. Otherwise, only minimally changes were made to the
forecast, primarily to winds in Lynn Canal which have stayed
elevated.

.LONG TERM...
Lighter winds and drier weather continues into Thursday. During
the day Thursday, a weak embedded low in the northern gulf has the
chance of bringing light showers across the gulf waters. Mainly
northerly and easterly winds will bring drier and cooler
continental air over the panhandle. Temperatures across most of
the panhandle will see overnight lows getting below freezing
Thursday night. Specifically there is around a 40 to 60% chance of
less than 30 degree temperatures over the southern panhandle
Thursday into Friday. The central and northern panhandle both
have a medium to high likelihood of low temperatures less than 25
degrees. These temperatures are nothing atypical for this time of
year, but it would be the coldest most places have gotten so far
this season.

Behind drier weather and cooler temperatures, another system once
again enters the gulf Friday into the weekend. This once again
increases winds across the gulf and panhandle. It sends moderate
precipitation across the panhandle as well. The main question with
this end of week system is what precipitation type will fall.
With cold air in place, we could see accumulating snow into the
central panhandle. The colder the temperatures are leading up to
the weekend system, the more likely it is for precipitation to
fall as snow into the Icy Strait Corridor. If it does end up being
the right atmosphere for snow, any snow accumulation near the Icy
Strait Corridor is likely to remain low.

This active weather then continues into the start of the week as
multiple fronts make their way across the gulf into the panhandle.
There is currently quite a bit of spread between models and
ensembles on where the main low pressure systems track.

&&

.AVIATION.../18z Wednesday - 18z Thursday/...Showers over the
gulf and along the coast from PAYA to PASI are occasionally reducing
conditions, but with large breaks in between. Some patchy fog has
expanded over parts of the south (PAPG, PAKW) as of 9am down to
around 1/2SM VIS, not expecting that to last long based on improving
conditions at nearby webcams. Overall webcams are showing improving
flight conditions, some better than METARs would suggest (PAHN low
cloud hung over the sensor), this improvement is expected to
continue with CIGs lifting and becoming VFR by this afternoon.
Exception to this will be PAYA where a more organized band of
showers will move onshore around the 00z hour. Gusty winds that were
happening at PAHN and PAGY have decreased this morning and shifted
to light northerly/variable. Going against models, northerly winds
in Glacier Bay area and Lynn Canal expected based on pressure
gradient flow. Think fog will develop somewhere overnight/Thurs
morning. But competing forces may damper that as another trough (w/
a band of showers) approaches the outer coast early Thursday and
would cause a slight increase in winds ahead of it that may be
enough to mix the boundary layer.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside Waters: Through Wednesday, winds will continue to
decrease closer to gentle breezes allowing for calming weather
across the Gulf and outer coast. Wave heights should continue to
decrease to 5-7 ft by the afternoon.

Beyond tomorrow, Friday is the next round of south to southeast wind
speeds getting up to 15 to 20 knots with 20 to 25 knots for Friday
night. Wind speeds decrease for Saturday but come back up to 20 to
30 kts, potential of 35 kts, by Monday.

Inside Waters: Wind speeds continue to diminish as the southerly
gradient collapses, though Lynn Canal will likely maintain
southerly winds longer than previously progged. General forecast
remains the same though, with winds looking to swing to a more
northerly direction through Wednesday, as weak outflow conditions
take hold.

Late Friday is the next chance for inner channel wind speeds to
increase again to around 10 to 20 kts with those elevated speeds
likely to linger into the weekend. Elevated southerly winds around
20 to 30 knots are possible early next week as the next front
moves through. Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...FERRIN
MARINE...GJS

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