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Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1050 PM AKST Mon Dec 1 2025

.Evening and 06z Aviation Update...
No major changes to ongoing forecast this evening. With high
pressure moving in across the panhandle, starting to see low
clouds and dense fog develop with visibilities around 1 to 4 miles
near Yakutat, Haines, Gustavus, with worst visibilities around
1/4 mile near Petersburg. Not anticipating much improvement
overnight for over land or marine areas, so went ahead and issued
the Dense Fog Advisory through Tuesday morning for the Petersburg
area and added areas of fog into the marine forecast for Sumner
Strait, Frederick Sound, Glacier Bay, and Stephens Passage. Moving
into the overnight hours, would not be surprised to see further
expansion of the Dense Fog Advisory. Winds through tonight will be
largely 10mph or less across the panhandle, outside of Haines and
Skagway which will see increased drainage winds, around 15mph.

&&


.Aviation.../through Tuesday evening/
Main aviation concern will be IFR to LIFR ceilings and visbys
developing through Tuesday morning.

As of 1030pm, a full range of flight conditions across the
panhandle this evening, isolated VFR to predominate MVFR to LIFR
with CIGS AoB 1500ft and visbys between 1 to 4SM, with pockets of
fog developing near Petersburg reducing them down to as low as
1/4SM. Through Monday night, flight conditions will continue to
worsen as ridging moves aloft and precipitation comes to an end,
with high confidence of low stratus deck continuing AoB 1500ft
through mid morning Tuesday. Winds will remain 10kts or less,
going near calm and variable overnight for majority of the
panhandle. No major LLWS concerns through the period, however, a
front pushes into the Gulf Coast by 06z near the tail end of the
TAF period.

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 250 PM AKST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

 - Diminishing trend in winds and precipitation tonight into
   tomorrow. Lingering rain primarily across northern panhandle.

 - Another front arrives late Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing
   predominantly rain and continued warmer-than-normal
   temperatures into midweek.

 - Late week into next weekend, long range models are still
   hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce
   heavy snow. High uncertainty at this time but worth watching
   closely.

SHORT TERM.../Through Tuesday night/...Overall, the weather isn`t
looking too exciting for the later parts of Monday into Monday
night. Continued onshore flow will keep the light rain/light rain
showers dotting the landscape. However, a building ridge of high
pressure is bringing a diminishing trend to the rain for tonight.

Along with the decreasing rain, the wind speeds will be on the
decrease as well. Overnight temps will be warmer-than-normal with
lows in the upper 30s to low 40s for most of SE AK. A touch warmer
for those on Prince of Wales Island with overnight lows in the mid
40s.

LONG TERM.../through this weekend/...
The upcoming week is looking like another cloudy and rainy week.
There will be lulls between the frontal passages, with
precipitation chances mainly limited to western facing mountains,
but the overall trend in the long term forecast is cloudy and
rainy this week. But late this week into next weekend, ensembles
are hinting at a weather pattern that has been known to produce
heavy snow.

Friday into the weekend, the overall weather pattern looks to
change. Ensembles are hinting at a upper air low pressure
descending south out of central Alaska. Run to run ensembles have
increasingly placed this low to the west of Anchorage, but cluster
analysis has this low as far east as Prince William Sound, around
a 40% or less chance of occurrence. What this translates into
sensible weather for the panhandle is how deep will the cold pool
in Canada get. The further east the low center is, the more the
cold pool in Canada will be developed, and the further south the
southwesterly flow will be. The stronger the cold pool in Canada
is, the further south the associated arctic boundary will be,
which will dictate what part of the panhandle will get the most
snow. At this point, guidance is backing off on the low placement
to west of Anchorage as the more likely scenario, which would
bring warmer temperatures further north, keeping the arctic
boundary near the northern panhandle.

Confidence is low for placement of heaviest snow, with confidence
intervals for the northern half of the panhandle being between
all rain with little to no snow accumulation to nearly 12 inches
of snow in 24 hours.

Furthermore, there is evidence that if this upcoming weekend
system does not generate substantial snowfall for the panhandle,
early to mid next week is shaping up to keep this pattern going,
which would result in multiple rounds of snow. These upcoming
systems will be carefully watched over the following days.

Stay tuned.

MARINE...
Outer waters: Persistent westerly flow to 20 knots in the gulf
waters are expected to continue through the evening and slowly
diminish into the morning hours Tuesday. Seas look to follow this
trend, enhanced by the long fetch and duration of westerlies in
the gulf. Primary swell is currently a southwesterly direction to
around 8 ft, for a combine wave height of around 11-13 ft. Not
expecting any improvement in seas as winds collapse and shift to
the SE for the frontal passage tomorrow. Along the front,
expecting to see 25-30 knot sustained winds moving eastward across
the gulf into the evening hours tomorrow, before moving overland
tomorrow night.

Inside waters: The diminishing trend continues for the inside
waters as gradients relax and winds aloft reduce in lieu of the
incoming front tomorrow. Expecting to see around 10 knots maximum
across the panhandle tonight with plenty of low clouds. The one
exception is Lynn Canal, as westerly flow aloft looks to keep
southerlies up to 15-20 knots in the channel. That being said,
Taiya Inlet down to Eldred Rock have high uncertainty on how
stable the low level atmosphere will be. Currently, expecting a
relatively stable environment, which will result in decoupled
winds near Haines and Skagway and relatively light winds. South of
this point; however, southerlies up to 20 knots are currently
occurring.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM AKST Tuesday for AKZ326.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NC

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