668
FXAK67 PAJK 070059
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
359 PM AKST Sat Dec 6 2025


.SYNOPSIS...
Key Messages:

 - Low pressure system in the Gulf brings a front eastward across
   the panhandle through Saturday, bringing moderate to heavy snow
   to the northern panhandle and and spreading southward to
   central and southern panhandle.

 - Cold temperatures moving into SEAK to start the week, with some
   areas seeing single digits or sub zero temperatures. Apparent
   temperature along White pass dipping below -20. This weekend
   through next week, models continue falling into line behind a
   weather pattern that has been known to produce heavy snow.
   Higher confidence in totals for the northern panhandle, but
   still some uncertainty remains about timing and amounts as cold
   air pushes southward.


.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday/...A front continues moving
across the panhandle tonight, followed by multiple waves of
precipitation that will continue to move across the panhandle
throughout the rest of the weekend. Throughout the night and
morning, the arctic boundary in place has continued to push
southward quicker than initially expected following cold and dry
northerly air pushing into the northern panhandle. This trend is
expected to continue throughout the weekend, with the arctic
boundary progressively moving southward tonight and tomorrow,
moving forward the anticipated snowfall across the central
panhandle a day sooner than was expected yesterday due to the path
of the low and northerly winds pushing in faster. The boundary
should continue to slide southward and linger over Icy Strait
Corridor tonight into tomorrow as the next wave of precipitation
moves through, bringing another round of heavy snow to Juneau and
Gustavus, and allowing for colder air to move in and bring heavier
snow to Hoonah, Elfin Cove and Pelican as well. Juneau should see
additional snow accumulations of 12 to 16 inches in the next 24
hours, with the heaviest rates of 1 inch per hour being possible
early in the morning Sunday through the morning hours as the wave
of heavier precipitation moves through. Gustavus should also see
additional accumulations of 10 to 12 inches through tomorrow
afternoon. When the rest of Icy Strait Corridor sees the cold air
moving in by tonight, areas near Hoonah, Elfin Cove, and Pelican
will see more snow accumulation that will last into tomorrow
night, with between 10 and 14 inches in 24 hours expected over
Hoonah and Eastern Chichigof Island and 8 to 10 inches for the NE
Gulf Coast and Cross Sound area.

As the arctic boundary continues to move southward tomorrow into
Monday to around the central panhandle, bringing in some mixing and
snowfall. Snow mixing is expected into tomorrow for Sitka, Angoon,
Kake, and Petersburg, and becoming snow by tomorrow night. While
there will be some accumulation of less than 2 inches from Angoon
and Sitka down to Wrangell possible tomorrow, the higher snowfall
amounts and rates are not expected for the Petersburg and Wrangell
areas until Monday as the colder air and subsequent higher snow
ratios set in, alongside the next front moving through the southern
panhandle, bringing an expected 8 to 10 inches in 24 hours Monday.

Tonight the far northern panhandle will begin to see a diminishing
trend in precipitation amounts, but will still see an additional 9
to 13 inches in the next 24 hours, with the higher end of snow
accumulation being expected in Haines and along the Haines Highway.
This snow will be a lot lighter in density, and alongside the up to
40 to 50 mph gusts down parts of the Klondike Highway and Chilkat
Peninsula, some potential for blowing snow may impact areas that see
gusty winds during the heavier snow rates tonight into tomorrow.
Yakutat will also see a diminishing trend in precipitation, with the
northern panhandle not being expected to see enough moisture to see
any real snow accumulations Monday, rather staying cold and dry from
the northerly outflow keeping the next system from pushing any real
precipitation in. Instead this next system will largely impact the
southern panhandle, which will begin to see some cooler temperatures
beginning tomorrow night into Monday morning, enough for snow to mix
in and possible accumulation down to PoW and Ketchikan if the
temperatures decrease enough for accumulation from the mixing.


.LONG TERM.../ Tuesday and Wednesday / Boundary continues to move
southward over the southern panhandle. Building high pressure in
NW Canada and Alaska Interior, creating offshore flow and ushering
colder air through the northern panhandle. Some locales will see
lows single digits for Subzero for Low temperatures, with Juneau
being one of those.

Drying out Tuesday and Wednesday from north to south as dry cold
air becomes more prevalent across the region.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Sunday afternoon/...Arctic boundary is now
hovering right around the Icy Strait corridor, leading to
predominantly IFR conditions for Skagway down to Juneau and
Gustavus Saturday afternoon. Areas that have seen a transition to
snow will likely stay that way, meaning any precipitation will
lead to significant drops in VIS. Otherwise generally MVFR flight
conditions continue down south of the Icy Strait Corridor. From
Angoon southward, precip is likely to stay all rain through
Saturday night, but VIS and CIGs may still drop down to IFR flight
conditions under any heavier rainfall.

Strongest winds will be across the northern panhandle near PAGY and
PAHN, increasing to near 30 kts with gusts to 45 kts by late
Sunday morning, with blowing snow likely. Elsewhere, winds
becoming 10 to 18kts with gusts 20 to 25kts. LLWS likely as well
with winds 2kft aloft becoming 30 to 40kts for the NE gulf coast.
Overall not expecting any significant improvement in flying
conditions over the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): A low pressure continues to sit
in the western Gulf this afternoon bringing southerly fresh to
strong breezes to the outer coast and offshore waters. These
conditions are expected to persist while near gale to gales are
expected to develop for those areas that are favored by outflow
winds. In particular, near Cape Spencer and Yakutat Bay could see
near gales to gales. As the low remains over the western Gulf, winds
will continue but could see some slowing for areas south of Cape
Edgecumbe with speeds around fresh to strong breezes. To the north,
the near gales to gales continue going into Monday and Tuesday for
the outflow winds. With the low remaining in the Gulf, wave heights
are expected to remain elevated with 10-15 ft seas and a SW swell
component.

Inside (Inner Channels): The Arctic boundary continues to push
southward this afternoon with the boundary around Taku Inlet for the
Stephens Passage area and somewhere between Point Couverden and
Tenakee Springs. As the boundary continues its trek southward, winds
will continue to shift to north while wind speeds are expected to
increase for the Lynn Canal area. To the south, winds are expected
to remain out of the south before switching to either more of a
northerly or easterly wind as the pressure gradient increases.
Headed into the start of the week, a low is expected to move across
the southern panhandle which should allow for winds to diminish for
the southern Inner Channels. Meanwhile, winds and cold temperatures
across the northern Inner Channels will likely see an increasing
potential for freezing spray, especially as the air temperature
continues to drop with the Arctic air mass.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ317.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ317.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ318-319.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to midnight AKST Sunday
     night for AKZ318.
     Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon
     for AKZ318.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST Sunday night for AKZ320-
     325.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST Sunday night for AKZ321.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST Sunday night for
     AKZ322.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday
     night for AKZ326-329.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 6 AM AKST Monday for
     AKZ327.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 9 PM AKST Monday for
     AKZ331.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ011-012-053-644-651-652-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>036-641>643-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...Bezenek
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...SF

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau