


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
198 FXAK67 PAJK 081336 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 536 AM AKDT Wed Oct 8 2025 .SHORT TERM... Quiet weather across the panhandle today is anticipated, with the exception of fog which will linger through the morning hours. Satellite imagery this morning shows patches of fog which have developed across SE AK, along with upper level clouds moving over a ridge in the Gulf. A marine layer which formed over the Gulf will approach the NE Gulf Coast Wednesday and Thursday, bringing chances of drizzle to areas between Mount Fairweather and Kruzof Island, but will otherwise remain largely offshore. The ridge will linger through the first half of Thursday before briefly being interrupted late Thursday into Friday by a low which forms over the northern Gulf (for additional details on this, see the long term discussion). For SE AK, this means that the upper level clouds, along with periods of substantial clearing, are expected to continue. Fog which formed over Tuesday night will linger through the morning hours on Wednesday, with daytime heating taking longer to dissipate it than in previous months owing to the lower sun angle. Fog may reform for some areas Wednesday night, but aside from this and the marine layer, am not expecting any other weather of note across SE AK, as the steering flow is currently directing systems into the western coast of the state. Low temperatures for areas where skies clear out and stay clear will reach at or below freezing for some more sheltered locations. Winds will remain on the lower side, given the lack of a significant pressure gradient. Forecaster confidence is average. .LONG TERM... High pressure is expected to remain over the Gulf for the start of the long term. This will allow for continued marine layer as well as potential for fog during the overnight hours. Headed into the day on Thursday, a low is expected to form in the Prince Williams Sound area. This will bring an increase to winds across the area as well as introduce a weak potential for a return to precipitation to the Northern Panhandle for Friday morning. Rain accumulations with this low look to be fairly light. This could also bring some snow to the upper elevations. Current thinking is that White Pass could see up to half an inch of snow from this system with the colder air moving in. Headed into Friday evening, high pressure moves back into the area and takes control for the start of the weekend. The next disturbance to move into the area looks to be late Saturday night into Sunday when rain returns with the main focus being from Yakutat west to Cape St. Elias. For the start of next week, high pressure looks to remain over the northern Pacific region which will allow for onshore flow over the top of the high. This will introduce a greater potential for precipitation with the moisture being transported onshore. Temperatures during the long term period are expected to remain in the 40s and 50s during the daytime. But there is the increasing likelihood that low temperatures will drop close to or below freezing, especially for places that see light winds and don`t develop cloud cover during the overnight hours. && .AVIATION.../Through Thursday morning/... Variable flight conditions across the panhandle this morning as ridging pushes in aloft, with main aviation concern being LIFR/IFR CIGS and Visbys due to fog limiting visbys down to as low as one quarter mile and lowered marine layers AoB 1000ft through Wednesday morning. With lowering sun angle, anticipating any fog or marine layer to burn off a bit slower. Should start to see gradual improvement in overall flight conditions by 15z, increasing through 20z this afternoon, becoming widespread VFR under clearing conditions with CIGS AoA 5000ft by 00z. Fog development likely again moving into Thursday morning, but forecast confidence is too low on impacting airports at this time. Winds under the high will remain light and variable through the TAF period, generally 10kts or less, but can`t rule an isolated gust up to 20kts during the afternoon, going near calm and variable once more overnight into Thursday. No LLWS concerns at this time. && .MARINE... Outside (Gulf/Coastal water): A surface high building over the gulf driving NW winds of moderate to fresh breezes by Wednesday afternoon off Chichagof/Baranof and PoW coast. Significant heights continue to diminish, settling to below 10ft and below 10 seconds by Wednesday afternoon, wave spectrum shifting to northwest wind waves/chop riding over the decreasing SW swell. Thursday afternoon another quick moving low will transit the northern coast, with near-gale force WNW winds anticipated for coastal waters by Friday morning with westerly fresh seas 12 to 16ft below 10 seconds. Inside (Inner channels): Wednesday morning northerly winds build across the central and southern inner channels in response to a stout quick moving surface high settling in over the gulf; winds should remain below 15 knots by-and-large for major channels. Mariners transiting tonight should be aware of potential for dense fog forming in preferred protected areas like Petersburg and Klawock/Craig as skies clear out and temperatures drop. This threat will diminish by late Wednesday morning as northerly winds mix out the saturated shallow airmass with any fog lifting to a shallow marine layer. Fog may reform for some of the channels Wednesday night. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until noon AKDT today for AKZ321-325. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ641-642-661>663. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM...SF AVIATION...NM MARINE...AP/GFS Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau