152
FXAK67 PAJK 160616
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1016 PM AKDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.UPDATE...For the 06z TAF package. Strong front, moving through
the panhandle has gusty winds and is likely resulting in wind
shear, and turbulence with flow over and around the terrain.
During the day, expect a westerly or southerly flow based on
favored direction the inner channels. Ceilings primarily 2000 to
4000 feet overnight.

Also Updated winds in Stephens Passage for Gale force winds from
30kt near Youngs Bay this evening and updated the Inside marine
forecast.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 359 pm Wed Oct 15...

SHORT TERM...Little change to this upcoming storm force, barrier
jet front for the panhandle tonight. Still expecting storm force
winds to spread across the NE gulf coast beginning this evening
and continuing through tonight. For more information regarding
marine concerns, see the marine section. As for wind gusts,
Yakutat looks to get hit the hardest, with wind gusts up to 50 mph
late tonight. These gusts are expected to occur right as the
frontal passage moves over the area and the winds shift to the
south to southeast. As for areas from Juneau south, expecting to
see wind gusts cap at around 35 mph, particularly in areas exposed
to south to southeasterly winds. Behind the front, expecting to
see rapid pressure rises, and continued windy conditions through
Thursday.

Along side these windy conditions, strong cold air advection from
the west looks to persist through Thursday. This combined with
constantly moist boundary layer and relatively warm surface
conditions is expected to bring CAPE values exceeding 250-300 J/kg
along the coast. With strong westerly winds and a topographic
influence, isolated thunderstorms could pop up along the
mountains. Due to the dry layer above 750 mb, could see some gusty
winds up to 35 mph associated with these showers and
thunderstorms from evaporative cooling downdrafts.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday/...For Friday morning, post-
frontal showers with a chance of thunderstorms remain along the
Outer Coast as well as winds up to around 25 to 30 kt over the
eastern gulf waters & Lynn Canal due to a relatively tight
pressure gradient that will still be in place. This will keep
things rather breezy over land areas, as well. The thunderstorms
may bring gusty winds up to around 35 mph & moderate to heavy
rainfall. After a brief lull in the winds Friday afternoon, a gale
force SFC low moves up into the SE Gulf for Friday night through
Saturday, bringing winds up to around 35 to 40 kt as it pushes in
for the SE gulf & southern third to half of the inner channels,
particularly Clarence Strait. Conditions will become rather breezy
for southern Panhandle land areas, as well. Late Saturday
afternoon, after the low has pushed into the SE Gulf, it will
begin to weaken & push away from the region, diminishing winds
over the SE gulf to 20 to 25 kt through the end of the forecast
period. Late Saturday morning through early Saturday afternoon,
northern Lynn Canal looks to top out up at around 25 kt as the
pressure gradient will be the tightest around that time associated
with this weather system. Precipitation will top out in the
moderate to heavy range for Friday night through Saturday for the
southern Panhandle & light elsewhere associated with this low. For
mainly Saturday night & Sunday night, around peak nighttime
cooling, some light snow accumulations are possible, primarily at
the higher elevations along the Klondike Highway.

&&

.AVIATION...Currently seeing VFR conditions across the board as a
high cloud deck and calm winds push into the panhandle. The
southern panhandle is still seeing low CIGs stick around, though
only the southernmost sites are currently MVFR. A storm force low
in the western Gulf has sent a front towards the northeastern
coast through Wednesday, expected to reach Yakutat in the next
hour or two and moving over the entire panhandle through the
evening. Strong gusty winds around 25 to 30 kts, moderate to heavy
rain rates, and 35 to 45 kts of LLWS are expected at the peak of
this system, with CIGs and VIS dropping to at least MVFR
overnight. CIGs AoB 1500 to 2500 ft will persist through the
period, with VIS expected to drop to around 4 SM as heavier rain
and low scattered layers moving through. Some areas of the
southern panhandle may drop to IFR with CIGs around 700 ft at the
peak of the system. Gusty winds for the southern, central, and
outer coast of the panhandle will last until the front moves
through, and then calm down until showers begin to pop up. Winds
for the northern panhandle are likely to continue through Thursday
with the persistent onshore flow. The front will move out of the
panhandle through Thursday morning, with westerly gulf winds
continuing showers in its wake.

&&

.MARINE...

Outer waters:
The storm force front is upon us, which will bring storm force
winds with violent storm force gusts to the NE gulf coast in the
next few hours. Expect to see these winds continue for 6 hours as
the barrier jet strengthens, before shifting to the south.
Similarly for the rest of the gulf coast, winds, currently sitting
around 30 knots on buoy 46084, will gradually increase as the
front draws near. Collocated with the strongest winds is the
highest wave heights, reaching around 25 ft with a south to
southeast swell. Behind this front, tight gradients from a surface
high pressure in the northern Pacific and lingering surface low
pressure in the northern gulf will result in a prolonged period of
near gale to gale force southwesterly winds for the gulf waters.
Due to the long duration, length of fetch, and strength of winds,
expecting to see wave heights exceeding 25 ft in the offshore
waters and 20 ft on the outside marine zones.

Inside waters:
With the storm force front on the inside waters doorstep, will
start to see winds in easterly channels begin to increase.
Specifically, the backside of Douglas, Icy Strait, Cross Sound,
and Peril Strait will see increases in winds for the next few
hours. One change is Lynn Canal, which is now expected to see a
brief period of light winds before a southerly surge as the
frontal passage moves through. Expecting to see some isolated
pockets of gales in southeasterly channels during the frontal
passage, but the chances do not exceed 30% and last for less than
3 hours. The exception is Clarence Strait, which look to have
gales overnight tonight into early Thursday, before a sharp wind
shift to the SW channels with winds less than 20 knots.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 1 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ317.
     Strong Wind until 7 AM AKDT Thursday for AKZ332.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652-664-671-672.
     Gale Warning for PKZ031-036-641>644-651-661>663.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-021-022-032>035-053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99

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