195
FXAK67 PAJK 170610
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1010 PM AKDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.UPDATE...Update to include 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Onshore flow continues this afternoon with lots of
convective showers and even some thunderstorms popping up. These
showers are expected to continue through the overnight hours into
tomorrow. Increased the area for slight chance of thunderstorms
today due to lightning strikes being observed, especially farther
inland along with the environment conditions expected to persist
through tomorrow. Winds across the area are expected to remain
elevated with the onshore flow. Brought down temperatures at White
Pass due to observations being lower than what is being reported.
Otherwise, the forecast from this morning continues headed into
Friday and Saturday.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Monday/...After a brief lull in
the winds Friday afternoon, a gale force SFC low moves just south
of the SE Gulf for Friday night through Saturday, bringing winds
up to around 35 to 40 kt & enhanced seas as it pushes by for the
SE gulf & southern third to half of the inner channels,
particularly Clarence Strait. Conditions will become rather breezy
for southern Panhandle land areas, as well. Late Saturday
afternoon, after the low has pushed closest to the SE Gulf, it
will begin to weaken & push away from the region, diminishing
winds over the SE gulf to only as high as around 20 to 25 kt
through Sunday night. Late Saturday morning through early Saturday
afternoon, northern Lynn Canal looks to top out up at around 25
kt as the pressure gradient will be the tightest around that time
associated with this weather system. Precipitation will top out in
the moderate to heavy range for Friday night through Saturday for
the southern Panhandle & light elsewhere associated with this
low. Flooding concerns are not anticipated at this time as this
low is rather quick-moving. After a break between weather systems
on Sunday, another borderline gale force frontal system moves in
for late Sunday night through early next week, which will bring
enhanced wind & seas & light to moderate rainfall. For mainly
during the day on Saturday, Sunday night, & into Monday morning,
some light snow accumulations are possible, primarily at the
higher elevations along the Klondike Highway & potentially along
the Haines Highway near the border as snow levels will be low
enough & SFC temperatures will be cold enough.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers continue across the panhandle tonight,
bringing drops to VIS and CIGS as well as gusty winds as showers
move through. Throughout tonight and into tomorrow morning a
shortwave will move through, promoting another wave of showers
across the panhandle from W to E. Yakutat is expected to remain
MVFR with CIGs AoB 1500 ft with VIS restrictions down to 4SM
overnight, with improvements to VIS by mid morning but CIGs
remaining at MVFR AoB 1500 ft. The majority of TAF sites will
remain VFR until this wave begins to move through around 9Z,
bringing CIGS to AoB 1500 to 2500 ft with VIS dropping to between
4 and 6SM as the heavier showers move through. MVFR conditions
will remain longer across the northern panhandle into tomorrow,
along with increased winds and gusty conditions lasting into
tomorrow for Haines and Skagway, with gusts up to 30 kts. The
southern panhandle and the central coastline around Sitka should
begin to see improvements from MVFR to VFR by around 20Z, with
improvements to VFR overnight intermittently between showers. The
inner central panhandle will begin to see improvements to VFR by
00Z, but with shower chances still possibly bringing some brief
drops in CIGs to below 3000 ft with shower activity. The LLWS will
begin to decrease tonight from the past wave that moved through.
As the next wave moves through between 10Z and 14Z, LLWS of 25 to
35 kt from the west will impact the panhandle, with the highest
wind shear expected around Icy Strait corridor and the central
coastline around 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Onshore flow continues for the
area with near gales to gales for the offshore waters and fresh
to strong breezes closer to shore. With the SW winds and swell
direction, seas are current running around 25 ft out in the
central Gulf. Closer to shore, wave heights at the Cape Edgecumbe
and Fairweather buoys is running around 12 ft at the time of
writing. These conditions are expected to continue with the
exception of winds decreasing allowing for some minor decreases in
waves. But the swell component is expected to remain the
dominating factor for seas. Headed into the weekend, another gale
force low looks to enter the area from the south before moving to
the east.

Inside (Inner Channels): Conditions across the Inner Channels
this afternoon are very location dependent. Some observations
across the Inner Channels continue to show fresh to strong breezes
with some pockets of near gales while other channels continue to
report light winds. These conditions are expected to continue
through tonight as onshore flow continues. Headed into tomorrow
night, winds are expected decrease and event flip around to more
of a northerly and easterly component ahead of a gale force low
moving up from the south. This low looks to bring gale force winds
up to the Dixon Entrance region at this time. Elsewhere, winds
are expected to increase to strong breezes with some near gales
possible in Clarence Strait early Saturday morning.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652-
     661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...JLC
AVIATION...Contino
MARINE...SF

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