


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
195 FXAK67 PAJK 170610 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 1010 PM AKDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .UPDATE...Update to include 06z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...Onshore flow continues this afternoon with lots of convective showers and even some thunderstorms popping up. These showers are expected to continue through the overnight hours into tomorrow. Increased the area for slight chance of thunderstorms today due to lightning strikes being observed, especially farther inland along with the environment conditions expected to persist through tomorrow. Winds across the area are expected to remain elevated with the onshore flow. Brought down temperatures at White Pass due to observations being lower than what is being reported. Otherwise, the forecast from this morning continues headed into Friday and Saturday. .LONG TERM.../Saturday through Monday/...After a brief lull in the winds Friday afternoon, a gale force SFC low moves just south of the SE Gulf for Friday night through Saturday, bringing winds up to around 35 to 40 kt & enhanced seas as it pushes by for the SE gulf & southern third to half of the inner channels, particularly Clarence Strait. Conditions will become rather breezy for southern Panhandle land areas, as well. Late Saturday afternoon, after the low has pushed closest to the SE Gulf, it will begin to weaken & push away from the region, diminishing winds over the SE gulf to only as high as around 20 to 25 kt through Sunday night. Late Saturday morning through early Saturday afternoon, northern Lynn Canal looks to top out up at around 25 kt as the pressure gradient will be the tightest around that time associated with this weather system. Precipitation will top out in the moderate to heavy range for Friday night through Saturday for the southern Panhandle & light elsewhere associated with this low. Flooding concerns are not anticipated at this time as this low is rather quick-moving. After a break between weather systems on Sunday, another borderline gale force frontal system moves in for late Sunday night through early next week, which will bring enhanced wind & seas & light to moderate rainfall. For mainly during the day on Saturday, Sunday night, & into Monday morning, some light snow accumulations are possible, primarily at the higher elevations along the Klondike Highway & potentially along the Haines Highway near the border as snow levels will be low enough & SFC temperatures will be cold enough. && .AVIATION...Showers continue across the panhandle tonight, bringing drops to VIS and CIGS as well as gusty winds as showers move through. Throughout tonight and into tomorrow morning a shortwave will move through, promoting another wave of showers across the panhandle from W to E. Yakutat is expected to remain MVFR with CIGs AoB 1500 ft with VIS restrictions down to 4SM overnight, with improvements to VIS by mid morning but CIGs remaining at MVFR AoB 1500 ft. The majority of TAF sites will remain VFR until this wave begins to move through around 9Z, bringing CIGS to AoB 1500 to 2500 ft with VIS dropping to between 4 and 6SM as the heavier showers move through. MVFR conditions will remain longer across the northern panhandle into tomorrow, along with increased winds and gusty conditions lasting into tomorrow for Haines and Skagway, with gusts up to 30 kts. The southern panhandle and the central coastline around Sitka should begin to see improvements from MVFR to VFR by around 20Z, with improvements to VFR overnight intermittently between showers. The inner central panhandle will begin to see improvements to VFR by 00Z, but with shower chances still possibly bringing some brief drops in CIGs to below 3000 ft with shower activity. The LLWS will begin to decrease tonight from the past wave that moved through. As the next wave moves through between 10Z and 14Z, LLWS of 25 to 35 kt from the west will impact the panhandle, with the highest wind shear expected around Icy Strait corridor and the central coastline around 13Z. && .MARINE... Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Onshore flow continues for the area with near gales to gales for the offshore waters and fresh to strong breezes closer to shore. With the SW winds and swell direction, seas are current running around 25 ft out in the central Gulf. Closer to shore, wave heights at the Cape Edgecumbe and Fairweather buoys is running around 12 ft at the time of writing. These conditions are expected to continue with the exception of winds decreasing allowing for some minor decreases in waves. But the swell component is expected to remain the dominating factor for seas. Headed into the weekend, another gale force low looks to enter the area from the south before moving to the east. Inside (Inner Channels): Conditions across the Inner Channels this afternoon are very location dependent. Some observations across the Inner Channels continue to show fresh to strong breezes with some pockets of near gales while other channels continue to report light winds. These conditions are expected to continue through tonight as onshore flow continues. Headed into tomorrow night, winds are expected decrease and event flip around to more of a northerly and easterly component ahead of a gale force low moving up from the south. This low looks to bring gale force winds up to the Dixon Entrance region at this time. Elsewhere, winds are expected to increase to strong breezes with some near gales possible in Clarence Strait early Saturday morning. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-053-641>644-651-652- 661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...JLC AVIATION...Contino MARINE...SF Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau