990
FXAK67 PAJK 101340
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
540 AM AKDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SHORT TERM...
A weak system which moved through the panhandle overnight and
brought rain showers across much of the northern and central
panhandle will depart through the day on Friday. In its wake,
high pressure return as the rebuilding ridge over the Gulf once
more raises the spectre of of a potential marine layer rebuilding
for the outer coast, and clearing skies for the rest of the area.
Fog which formed overnight for some areas, in spite of the system
moving through, will slowly dissipate for most locations through
the early afternoon

A weak outflow event will also commence on Friday in the wake of the
departing system. Given the distinct lack of any truly cold air at
this time in BC, as well as the concurrent lack of a low in the Gulf
to focus the pressure gradient, am not anticipating winds for most
of the inner channels to get above 15-20 kt. Friday night will
likely see fog redevelop in some more sheltered areas, especially in
the central and southern panhandle, though do not expect it to be as
widespread as it has been the past few nights.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Wednesday/...
  Key Messages:
- High pressure remains over the gulf through the long term
  forecast period, sliding further south early next week
- Weak Northerly outflow Saturday, cooler temperatures with clearer
  skies overnight Friday lasting into Sunday
- Rain chances increase later Sunday and into early next week
- Moderate to heavy rain possible for northern gulf coast Tuesday

Building on the short range discussion, weak high pressure will
build in the interior and Yukon behind a quick moving short wave
feature to start the weekend. While high pressure builds over the
interior and Yukon Territory, high pressure will also remain over
the gulf and NE Pacific. As a result, northerly outflow will
develop with winds increasing along north/south oriented channels.
The strongest winds are still expected along Lynn Canal and
Chatham Strait early Saturday morning. The primary driver of the
increased pressure gradient over the inner channels was the
interaction between high pressure over the interior and a trough
moving northward from the pacific Northwest into the vicinity of
southern Haida Gwaii. However, model guidance has trended to
reduce the northward track of this feature, as well as lowering
its strength. As a result, the pressure gradient developing over
the panhandle Friday into Saturday will likely be lessened,
resulting in weaker outflow. As of this forecast issuance,
sustained winds are now only expected to reach fresh breeze (17
to 21 kt), with gusts up to 30 kt for Lynn Canal for a brief
period early Saturday morning. While this dry northerly outflow is
not expected to be as robust, confidence remains for that
Saturday and Sunday minimum temperatures to reach near or below
freezing at sea level for most communities in the northern and
central panhandle, particularly those furthest from the outer
coast and sheltered from any significant wind. Daytime maximum
temperatures will likely be limited to the low 50s or upper 40s
for the inner channels while outer coastal communities could
reach the mid 50s.

Outflow winds are expected to have diminished by Saturday night
with otherwise cool and clear conditions persisting into early
Sunday. Later Sunday and into Monday, model guidance still
diverges on timing for the next organized system to impact the
panhandle. While some models bring a weak front into the panhandle
late Sunday night along with a long fetched plume of moisture,
others have the high pressure in the gulf staving this off for a
bit longer into Monday or even early Tuesday. Either way though
when it does arrive it would likely bring moderate to potentially
heavy rain to the northern coast, and then light to moderate rain
to the rest of the panhandle as it spreads eastward. Overall
message though is increasing chances for more unsettled weather
early next week after an otherwise fairly crisp and breezy
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../through Saturday morning/
A mixed bag of flight conditions across the panhandle this Friday
morning as a weak front pushes across the area. Quick look and
obs and satellite shows MVFR CIGS AoB 2000 to 3000ft and light
rain expanding across the northern and coastal panhandle, along
and north of a line from Sitka to Juneau. Shifting to the central
and southern panhandle, including Petersburg, Wrangell, and
Klawock, currently seeing the worst flight conditions down to LIFR
with CIGs AoB 500ft and Visbys as low as 1/4SM within dense fog.
Ketchikan isn`t getting in on the fog action yet, but fog is
nearby with IFR CIGS ongoing at Ketchikan near 500ft, can`t rule
out vsby drops through morning.

Through Friday, anticipating similar trends to yesterday. For
central panhandle TAF sites, anticipating slow climb to VFR
conditions as slowly fog dissipates through the morning, with CIGs
AoA 3500ft prevailing by 20z to 22z. Elsewhere, after marine layer
and fog dissipate, generally clear skies and VFR conditions
prevail by Friday afternoon and into Friday evening. With clearing
skies and saturated low levels, added in TEMPOs near end of TAF
period for southern panhandle TAF sites with expected return of
IFR to LIFR visbys due to dense fog.

Winds will remain light and variable through the TAF period,
generally 10kts or less, but will see an isolated gust up to
20kts through the morning at Ketchikan and Skagway as front
passes, returning near 5 to 10kts into Friday evening. No
significant LLWS concerns at this time, but will see broad NW-ly
flow up to 30kts near 2k ft affecting Sitka, Klawock, and
Ketchikan by 21z Friday through 06z Saturday.

Aviation Forecast Confidence:
-High forecast confidence on wind speeds, precipitation, LLWS
-Low forecast confidence on CIGs, vsbys, timing of improvement

&&

.MARINE...
Outer (Outer Coastal Waters): In the wake of a departing system
elevated wave heights of 9-10 ft linger for near coastal areas
areas while farther offshore, wave heights could be up to 15 ft.
These waves linger through Friday as NW flow builds over the gulf,
reaching 20
- 25 kt (around strong breeze). Waveheights begin to diminish
from North to South through the day on Saturday, with 5-7 ft wave
heights by late Saturday night expected for near coastal areas. By
late Sunday, an approaching system from the W will result in
waveheights beginning to build over the Northern and central gulf.

Inside (Inner Channels): Between fog formation Thursday night
lasting through the morning hours on Friday and a lingering marine
layer, anticipate reduced visibilities in many of the central and
southern inner channels, though conditions will slowly improve
through the latter half of Friday. This improvement will be due to
high pressure returning to the area with a weak outflow event
beginning, and winds flipping to the N and building to 15 - 20 kt
(around fresh breeze) for most of the Inner Channels that are
favored during high pressure. This N flow will linger through
Saturday, slowly weakening to 5-10 kt by Saturday night, and
remaining similar through Sunday. Can`t rule out the potential for
marine layer redevelopment for the outer coast over the weekend,
but think that northerly outflow will help reduce its overall
impact.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Dense Fog Advisory until noon AKDT today for AKZ326-328-329.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...GFS

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